Final R H E
Milwaukee Brewers (18-13) 7 9 1
Cincinnati Reds (7-23) 6 11 0
W: Chase Anderson (3-2)  L: Homer Bailey (0-4)  SV: Jeremy Jeffress (1)
FanGraphs Win Probability | Box Score | Game Thread | Statcast

This will probably shock you, but the Reds lost tonight.

Fortunately, the team is at least playing in competitive games recently. Unfortunately, the Reds haven’t turned that into many victories, and they now have more one-run losses (8) than wins (7) this season.

Here’s how tonight’s heartbreaker went down:

The Hitters

The Cincinnati offense is starting to regain its 2017 form after the return of Eugenio Suarez and Scott Schebler. Eleven base hits were knocked. Six walks were drawn. Unfortunately, that only translated into six runs. The Reds ended an inning with a runner in scoring position four times and had a runner thrown out at second base to end two more frames. Not great.

There were some highlights, though. Suarez smashed his fourth home run of the season to tie the game in the first inning and erase an early three-run deficit. That would’ve seemed insurmountable just a couple of weeks ago. Suarez also had a sacrifice fly later in the game, giving him seven runs knocked in over his last two games.

Alex Blandino added his first career big-league home run, a solo shot in the eighth. Billy Hamilton had two singles and an RBI. Tucker Barnhart walked two more times, giving him 16 for the season and placing him second on the team.

The Hurlers

For a third start in a row, Homer Bailey was not particularly sharp. He again lasted only five innings, forcing Jim Riggleman to go to his bullpen early for a second straight game. Bailey was tagged for five earned runs on six hits (including two more homers allowed) and a walk, and he struck out only one batter — which is perhaps the most alarming part about his night. Since notching seven strikeouts on April 10, Bailey has just 10 over his last four outings and a 13.1 K% on the season. He had just four swings and missed on 86 pitches tonight.

The train went off the rails early for Bailey, when he allowed a two-run homer to Travis Shaw and a solo shot to Jesus Aguilar in the first inning. After the offense tied the game at three in the bottom half of the inning, Bailey righted the ship a bit, retiring 10 of the next 11 hitters.

But he got into more trouble in the fifth. Orlando Arcia reached on an infield single that could’ve easily gone as a throwing error against shortstop Jose Peraza. With two outs, Bailey walked Christian Yelich. Ryan Braun made him pay for the mistake, hitting an opposite field double to give the Brewers the lead again.

David Hernandez was the next man up. He walked a batter and allowed an RBI triple in the sixth. Amir Garrett pitched 1 1/3 innings, striking out one and giving up a solo home run to Hernan Perez in the seventh on what was a pretty good pitch down and in.

Dylan Floro was the pitcher of the game for the Reds. He struck out back-to-back hitters to end the eighth and notched two more strikeouts in the ninth. A harmless single was the only smudge on Floro’s line tonight.

Not-So-Random Thoughts

  • Adam Duvall batted second today, presumably in an attempt by Jim Riggleman to get the slumping left fielder going at the plate between two hot hitters. Predictably, it didn’t work. He went 0-for-3 with three strikeouts and a walk. In the third inning, Duvall came to the plate with runners on the corners and two outs. He struck out, leaving Joey Votto in the on-deck circle in a big situation once again. He was later picked off at second base to end the fifth inning with the go-ahead run at the plate.
  • Rosell Herrera got his first major-league start and picked up his first career hit with a single in the second inning.
  • Most of us probably had no clue who Dylan Floro was before this year, but he’s off to a nice start in the Reds’ bullpen. Through 11 2/3 innings, he has a 0.77 ERA (1.82 FIP, 3.02 xFIP) and 11 strikeouts against just two walks.
  • Peraza had two steals today to give him five on the year. Per Statcast, Peraza’s 29.0 feet per second maximum sprint speed ranks 27th among 370 players measured this season. Billy Hamilton (30.0 ft/s) is fourth. Phil Gosselin (29.1 ft/s), weirdly, ranks 20th.

Up Next

Luis Castillo (7.85 ERA, 4.40 xFIP) will look to rebound from his worst career major-league start when he toes the rubber on Wednesday in the series finale against the Brewers. The opposition will send Wade Miley to the mound to make his Brewers debut after missing the first month of the season with a groin injury. First pitch is again set for 7:10 p.m. ET.

Photo Credit: Kareem Elgazzar – Cincinnati Enquirer

33 Responses

  1. Indy Red Man

    Schebler overran the ball in front of the track and couldn’t even glove it….allowing their catcher to score. That with the Peraza play cost 2-3 runs. Its always the little things that this team fails to do. They’ll slug their way to alot of wins, but the pitching and defense is shoddy more often then not. On the bright side…Peraza is really shining offensively and you can see a real nice nucleus for many years with Winker, Schebler, Suarez, Senzel, and possibly Peraza and Blandino.

    • Jim Walker

      During the game the old slogan, “just good enough to lose” popped into my mind as a perfect description of the Reds the last 2 nights. A mediocre to decent team has found a way to win them both. A team striving to reach mediocrity has come up just short.

      • sezwhom

        Jim, my thoughts exactly. Can’t get the big hit hit with RISP either. Play okay but still lose.

  2. Scott Gennett

    Reds current roster in no thread to any team in NL. Even if the manage to score some runs, their rotation and defensive liabilities are evident. How long will it take to DFA Duvall?

    • Jim Walker

      I don’t think they DFA Duvall in the near future. Tonight was just the worst of the worst for him. On the whole he has been striking out less, walking more, and per the exit velocity stats hitting the ball hard. Still bad luck can’t explain away what’s been going on with him all season in terms of bottom line production.

      It looks like he has an option left; and, with less than 3 years of service time, he cannot refuse it. Send him down. Let him decompress. Have somebody do personal work with him then start playing him every day.

      If he starts hitting, he could become a valuable sweetener in a deal.

    • Indy Red Man

      He went 4-14 with 3 doubles and a HR in Minnesota. He could swing 1 handed and do more damage then Billy. I wish they’d just leave Schebler in CF and run with it. Use Billy for defense/pinch running and on the road in the bigger parks. If Adam continues to stink then play Scooter in LF some and play Blandino/Herrera at 2b.

      • Jim Walker

        Riggleman was quoted as saying he would use Herrera in any of the OF spots. Maybe it is time for him to start doing it.

      • james garrett

        Right as rain Indy.Don’t understand it.Way too many holes in this lineup and Duvall has hit 30 bombs the last two years.We have Billy in year 5 and he still can’t hit yet he plays.The Reds need to do as you said.If Adam doesn’t come around then play others not named Billy.Good grief its so obvious.

  3. Jim Walker

    Home team, one out in the 8th, tying run at 3rd. His mission needs to be to tie the game whatever he has to do to get that done.

    t looked like he made a conscious effort back off the third strike. It also looked like the pitch was too close all the way to take with 2 strikes. Maybe in that split second he had to decide, he felt he couldn’t get his bat to it; and, his best chance was to hope he could get the call.

    • Scott Carter

      The old adage holds true, no matter how good a bear hunter you are, “sometimes the bear gets you.”

  4. Jim Walker

    Wednesday’s start by Castillo has become a really big start for the whole team and organization. If he rolls snake eyes again, it will clearly make the two rotation guys who looked like solid bets assuming good health probably the weakest two.

    • james garrett

      He is missing location big time.His velocity was 97/98 against the Twins but belt high right down the middle.His change was up and again in the middle of the plate.We anointed him after a few starts last year just like Garrett and now here we go again ready to throw him under the bus.Let him pitch.Granted he needs to make it out of the second inning but for goodness sake this organization has lost 94+ the last two years and found out nothing about who can and who can’t.His pure stuff is electric.

  5. GreatRedLegsFan

    Winning pct is currently sitting at .233 after season’s first month. I predicted .250 for the whole season, perhaps I overestimated it.

  6. Mason Red

    Good thing for us that this rebuild will result in a World Series Championship. Maybe not this century but eventually. Be patient and hold the course.

  7. Jack

    This team needs an ace pitcher. They need that guy who goes out every 5th day and dominates. Gives you the belief they have a great chance to win. The Reds have guys that you cross your fingers and hope things go their way.

    • james garrett

      Very easy to be frustrated because nothing was done to improve this team.The young starters just need to take the ball every 5th day.Bailey,Finny and Disco are returning after not pitching at all last year so that will take time to sort out as well.At the same time they must let some of these young position players play.Blandino,Herrera and others need to play some.Scooter should be in a platoon and Billy should be in late for defense.Winker plays every day as does Scott and Adam until they prove they don’t belong.Peraza needs to show he can or can’t play a major league caliber short stop.Probably a few more things to do as well but the bottom line is if they don’t find out about who is part of the next good team this year then they won’t ever find out.Last year was a waste and it can’t happen again this year.Who cares about losing 100 games or 90 games its still losing.Along the way Suarez will show he is a good player,Winker will be an on base machine,Peraza may surprise because he actually walked last night and 1 or 2 of the young starters may produce at league average or better.

  8. GreatRedLegsFan

    As 2018 season unfolds, each day it’s more evident that Reds have two major holes to be filled in right away, without clear candidates from the minors: a centerfielder and at least two rotation spots (and that’s assuming Mahle, Romano and Castillo will perform). Other seven positions are set for years to come, so it’s time to start looking at next winter’s FA market.

  9. james garrett

    I agree.Last year was wasted to find out about the pitching but it remains the top priority but as you said there are things to do along the way with the offense.I also agree to keep it in house because well we don’t know what some of these guys can or can’t do.

  10. Bill

    Cossac k I like what you say. Let’s try an outfield of Wimker, Herrera, Schebler for a week. The big problem is they play a guy 1 game then sit him for a week, no chance to get established. Pitching should have been done last year.

  11. cfd3000

    Disappointed by Votto’s late, key strikeout. But strike 3 was a terrific pitch – tip your cap there. More disappointed that Winker didn’t start. If he’s healthy how does that ever make sense? Most disappointed by Bailey’s start to the game and his overall line. Castillo’ start today is important. After an awful game how does he bounce back? If Castillo struggles the Reds have exactly one solid starter right now – Mahle – and a lot of question marks. That’s incredibly frustrating.

  12. james garrett

    Location,location,location.He was at 97/98 vs the Twins but right down the middle.Every major league hitter who can hit can hit a fastball.

  13. SultanofSwaff

    I agree with the thrust of the comments today—the starting pitching rebuild isn’t working and the options are dwindling by the day. None of Reed/Finnegan/Stephenson/Romano can be counted on to be anything more than #5 starters. Sure, maybe it clicks with one of them, but each have too many warts that severly limit that probability. They’re all so messed up in their own way……all seem like change of scenery candidates, which really makes you question how the Reds go about the process of developing starters. Sad to say, but it seemingly comes down to Disco getting healthy and the Reds brass showing some guts and transitioning higher ceiling pitchers Lorenzen/Garrett back into starters.

    I attributed the bad start to injuries and players coming out of the gate cold, but this last week has me wondering if the Reds can even manage a decent 2nd half when the ‘real’ Reds team will be playing every day.

  14. Daytonian

    Please. I like Scooter, but not in the OF. If you have concerns for his defense at 2B, you just haven’t seen in the OF.

  15. Bill Lack

    The walk to Yelich was huge….you don’t walk the guy in front of Braun.

  16. Jacob Bowling

    I am of the opinion that if Hamilton is not going to be aggressive once he gets on base, he does this team very little good. I know he is a terrific outfielder. However, no excuse for him not to attempt to take second base down one run in the bottom of the 8th. He scores easily on Winker’s hit to tie the game.

  17. Reds Fan In FL

    The Reds have a 1-8 record in 1-run games. This is not surprising when they consistently starts 2 outfielders hitting below the Mendoza line. At least put the best line up (best hitters) out there everyday and see what happens. Platoon Duval and Hamilton. When Duval starts, have him bat in the bottom 1/3 of the order until he shows signs of improvement. Use Hamilton as a PR and defensive substitution in games that he doesn’t start.

  18. Scott Carter

    I agree totally. With that said, unfortunately the Reds wasted this offseason without coming up with a clear option for centerfield. I don’t believe Schebler is a good option there, although he is much better there than Choo was, but even if he was to move there that still leaves us one OF short. You could possibly play Gennett in right but that will make for a pretty shaky outfield which I’m not sure you want with the young pitchers.

  19. Jeffery Stroupe

    The fatigue thing never made sense to me for Duval. The vision part as you mentioned absolutely. I am sure his A1C has been where it should be. Having inconsistant vision really is a bummer and cant be helped that much. And it only worsens over time. My vision changes on a daily basis to where wearing glasses is useless.

  20. Jeff Reed

    As stated by many above, the rebuild pitching is not working out as planned, and it doesn’t seem the Reds have much in the pipeline. Except perhaps for Mahle, no Reds pitcher can get beyond the 4th. or 5th. inning so this puts a strain on the insecure bullpen to save a lead with the exception of Iglesias. Either the Reds will have to cancel the rebuild and start anew like the Rays and Tigers, or the owner/front office is going to need to spend money for a couple proven starting pitchers or else the Reds are going to be non-competitive for the coming years. With this kind of a record after the first month, I doubt the Reds will draw a million this season. The front office sitting back and cancelling a season before it starts does not work.

    • james garrett

      You may be right but I would rather wait until these guys get 20 or 25 more starts under their belt.Homer and Finny are coming back after missing all or part of last year along with Disco and the others have little or no experience in the big leagues.It will be frustrating at times but we will get through this year.Should have done all of this sorting last year but it didn’t happen so we have to do it this year and it will be painful at times.We have 130 or so games left and then we shall see the ones that have stepped up and will be part of the future.I still believe we will have more conversation about our hitting then we do about our pitching as we go forward.Keep in mind 10 days ago we lost back to back 2-0 games.In this day and time a staff of average major league starting pitching is well a good thing.I think before its over that we will have just that or better.

  21. james garrett

    I also like what Winker brings and Senzel will be very good for a long time.

  22. Ernest

    Reds are the only team with a negative team pitching WAR, an impressive -1.0.

    The Royals will pass the Reds in runs allowed, so, the Reds have that going for them