This morning, I received an email from our Great Leader, Chadwick Ulysses Dotson. In it, he pointed me to this post I wrote in December 2016 about Eugenio Suarez. I make some fairly bold predictions in that post for a player who had just finished an overall below average season. Essentially, I said that Suarez had just had the most difficult possible season and was still not terrible and still young and given that and his minor league track record we should expect:

His defense to be very good.

His walk rate to increase.

A production level with a 3.0 WAR floor and a 5.0 WAR ceiling.

Check, check, and check.

According to both Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs, Suarez produced 0.8 WAR with defense this year, making him one of the 3 or 4 best third basemen in the league. His walk rate went from 8.1% to 13.3% and he produced 4.1 WAR according to FanGraphs and 3.7 according to Baseball-Reference, for an average of 3.9.

Let it never be said I’m afraid to admit when I’m right. And I was REALLY right about this.

And now, obviously, Suarez is slated to be a part of the Reds for the foreseeable future. Barring some type of disastrous injury, it’s incredibly unlikely that he won’t be “worth” what the Reds pay him (as Steve pointed out the other day).

Further, none of Suarez’s recent growth seems luck-based. His BABIP is perfectly normal. His defense passes both the eye and the sabrmetrics test, and walk rate is skill where luck has very little influence. He’s for real and he’s yet to have a particularly lucky year. If he has a year, for instance, where he’s able through luck or Joey Votto tutelage to up his BABIP to around .340 (this happens to lots of players once or twice in their careers), then he’s an MVP candidate.

Finally, there have been multiple quotes indicating that he’s willing to move around the diamond in order to help the Reds field the best possible lineup. This is exactly the kind of player you want to sign to an extension. He’s not going to cause tension in the clubhouse, and he’s going to be an excellent player on the field.

Eugenio Suarez is 26 years old. Last year, according to FanGraphs he was the 34th best position player in MLB (remember, there are 30 teams, so that’s REALLY good). There is absolutely no reason to expect any of his numbers to decline substantially for several years and he is already a borderline all-star. In fact, as I close this out, let me make one more prediction:

In at least one of the next three seasons, Eugenio Suarez will have an OPS over .900 and will finish in the top-10 in MVP voting.

15 Responses

  1. Jeff Reed

    Suarez is the kind of solid player winning teams need. It will take awhile to adjust, but I preferred the previous format.

  2. Sandman

    I’m going to make a prediction that someone will post an article similar to this only about Peraza should he ever reach his potential.

    As far as Saurez being “worth” his contract I suspect the, “It’s not right for the Reds”, crowd to rear their ugly heads at some point. You know, the same crowd that says that about Votto! Now, I realize that Votto’s contract is substantially larger than Saurez’s but, some ppl just like to complain about contracts.

  3. tomn

    Congrats on your excellent prophesy. I hope your prophesy win streak continues – as long as your prophesies are Reds-positive!

    I like the redesign, particularly the easy-to-read layout of the main article. Don’t personally mind the white font on dark bg in comments as it helps demark that section from the rest. Not sure about reading fatigue as the above commenter brought up.

    Nice article on Suarez again. Glad he’s a Red!!

  4. seanuc

    Love the redesign — appreciate all the work you guys put into this site.

  5. Ernest Howerton

    Jason,I really enjoy when you and Chad get together on the podcasts

  6. Jeff Reed

    Could a listing of the recent posts and comments be at the top of the blog?

  7. Scott Carter

    I always dislike change, but you know what? I’ll get used to it. Love the posts.

  8. Sandman

    I’ve already said this over on Twitter but I think it needs repeating.

    I’ve seen a lot of negative feedback about the new design. But one thing I think a lot of you fail to realize is that it’s their site to do with as they please. Unless they asked for your feedback (which I don’t recall seeing anywhere) then just be happy that you still get to talk about the Reds here on redlegnation.

    I don’t know if they’ve encouraged feedback before on design changes but even if they did I don’t know if it’s right to give it every time even when they don’t ask for it.

    Just go with the flow!

    • Sandman

      Bill,
      I agree, but only if they asked for the feedback. If they didn’t, then ppl shouldn’t just assume their opinions/criticisms/critiques (whatever you want to call it) are wanted.
      But, if they don’t mind…I don’t mind (I guess). I just hate when ppl try to tell someone what to do with their own stuff.

  9. Indy Red Man

    With the new format did I miss any conversation about Kennys Vargas? We claimed but he didn’t show up so Minnesota claimed him back? I don’t get it? He’s an interesting bat but at 290 lbs…don’t know where he could play besides 1B or DH? He’s not an Adam Dunn type of bat anyway. Oh well. Its good that DW is trying to improve the organization, but I think losing Disco was just too much for this organization. They needed 160-170ip of 3.40-3.50 era type of ball from him. They needed the same from a guy like Romano or Mahle. Now to approach .500 we have no margin for error and all the young guys have to step up instead of some of them. Math is not in their favor any longer.

  10. Jason Linden

    Depth. People get worked up about this stuff, but during this part of the season, teams are largely trying to make sure their minor league rosters are fully staffed. If you look back you’ll see there re always a bunch of seemingly strange signings you never hear about again. It’s just because they need a reliever or an outfielder or whatever at a certain level. Doesn’t always have implications for the big league team.

  11. Jeff Reed

    I haven’t really followed spring training a great deal but the results for Schebler, Winker and Duvall are encouraging. I hope Winker in in the lineup on a regular basis and Hamilton is used in a smart selective way. If that’s the case, the Red’s offense is going to cause trouble for the opposition.

  12. abide_dude

    Hello Reds fans! I am a longtime daily reader of this blog. But, I hardly ever post. I decided that with this new format, which I really like, that I am going add to the discussion more. Wish me luck, and go Reds!