This week’s respondents are Nick Doran, Nick Carrington, the inimitable Mary Beth Ellis, and Chad Dotson.

Our Daily Reds Obsession: What’s the best-case scenario for Scott Schebler? Worst-case?

Nick D: Schebler is coming into his age-27 campaign after turning in a .233 batting average with 30 home runs this past season. If he can flip the script on his unlucky .248 BABIP and get some positive mojo in that respect, it is not out of the question for him to hit .275 with 40 homers and 110 RBI if he gets to play every day. On the downside he could go into another one of his extended funks and end up riding the bus back to Louisville when Jose Siri forces his way to the majors.

Nick C: Best-case scenario – Schebler returns to his 2017 pre-injury form and blasts the cover off of the ball. I don’t think he’s going to be a really high on-base hitter, but he has the kind of power that changes baseball games. If he consistently taps into that, he could be a .255/.320/.525 player.
Worst-case scenario – Schebler is a free swinger, and pitchers often take advantage of such guys. His K% increased in 2017, and if it goes any higher, he will have trouble sustaining success. Swinging at bad pitches not only leads to strikeouts, but it will mitigate his ability to tap into his power. If this happens, he becomes a dangerous bat off of the bench.

Mary Beth: The best-case scenario for Scott Schebler is for him to stay the course on his personal grooming. At last check, he was without rodent-infested beard and with hair shorter than mine. This is mostly what I ask of in a ballplayer.

This is where we are as we seek the dawn of the 2018 baseball season: A player who doesn’t look weird is weird. If you don’t have the appearance of a drifter fresh off a murdering spree who is en route to the most fragrant bus station in town, you are right out of style. The return of polyester uniforms cannot be far behind.

Worst-case scenario? Hiring Brian Wilson’s personal stylist.

Chad: A lot depends on what the Reds roster looks like on Opening Day. The best-case scenario for the Reds might be for Schebler to be traded, opening up space in the outfield to play Jesse Winker full-time. The best-case scenario for Schebler is that he plays 140 games, in Cincinnati or elsewhere; if he does that, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he posted 3.5 to 4 wins above replacement, maybe hitting 40 bombs or so. I think he’s a very good bet to be better than Adam Duvall in 2018.

Worst-case: he repeats his 2017 production, but in a smaller role because the Reds are trying to juggle four outfielders all season long.

10 Responses

  1. cfd3000

    Best case: Healthy all year, 140+ starts – most in right, a handful in center, with a small but noticeable uptick in plate discipline thanks to the influence of Votto, Suarez and Cozart. Hitting to all fields. .260 / .320 / .520. and a starting spot in right for 2019.

    Worst case: More injury and no improvement in plate discipline. .230 / .275 / .440. and gone from the Reds in 2019.

  2. scottya

    Best; He has a 4 war season with 40 homers and 100+ RBI and fills in some in CF with +1 DRS. Worst: He repeats 2017 with injury and a 1.5 war season. Schebler is the right age to take his game one step further than he has before, I think he’ll be somewhere in between the two barring injury and a scenario where he plays CF might not be a bad thing for him or the team.

    He could also be traded, there were reports yesterday of teams inquiring about him.

  3. sultanofswaff

    I have no doubt Schebs could handle CF and be league average defensively. He’s a plus runner, and that will help him get to a lot of balls even if his reads/routes aren’t the cleanest. Small sacrifice to keep his bat in the lineup with Winker.

    Therein lies the question—-if Hamilton is traded, are the Reds better off using Schebler in CF vs. a stopgap player like a Carlos Gomez?

    • IndyRedMan

      I don’t know about CF? I was campaigning on here last season for them to try SS in CF, but he was pretty bad defensively after he came back from the shoulder. Bad routes, etc. and his arm is weak. At the same time, 2018 should be another year of sorting and experimentation, so I’m all for dealing Billy and giving Scheb a run at CF. Why not? Of course we’d rather have Yelich or Kiermaier, but Scheb is def an intriguing guy with prob the best bat speed on the team!

  4. IndyRedMan

    If he can flip the script on his unlucky .248 BABIP

    I’m making my New Year resolution now to quit going nuts over this stat, BUT its not bad luck when your spray chart is as predictable as the clock. If Scheb hits the ball on the ground…its going to the 2nd baseman in short rightfield….and that’s a fact. If you’ve only got 1 move in the NBA and your field goal % is low….its not bad luck. Its the fact that you’ve only got 1 move!

  5. Bill

    Mary Beth you’re to young to remember the House of David teams, but they all had beards & long hair. That’s what most baseball teams remind me of.

  6. gusnwally

    Best case: Hamilton is traded, Schebler plays CF, Winker in RF and leading off. Trading Scott isn’t a bad idea. However that would prolly mean billy is still leading off.Billy batting 7th or 8th isn’t bad if Jesse is leading off. Worst case. It remains the same as 2017.

  7. reaganspad

    Worst case scenario, we have 4 outfielders that we are sorting through in 2018 and look for improvement from all of them. It may well happen in this scenario where 2100 abs are divided 4 ways. Duvall doesn’t wear down. Billy gets favorable match ups and defensive late inning replacements. Winker is Winker. and Schebler in this scenario, also gets favorable match ups. So, worst case scenario, Brian Price does not do his job well and screws up the platoon.

    Best case scenario, Scott plays the most innings of the 4 and has a 260/340/550 year with 40 HRs and 100 rbis and his trade value skyrockets as the kids are banging on the door (Siri et al)