| Final | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals (56-36) | 6 | 10 | 0 |
| Cincinnati Reds (39-53) | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| W: Strasburg (10-3) L: Feldman (7-7) | |||
| FanGraphs Win Probability | Box Score | |||
The Good
–It feels almost silly to include anything in this section, after the last four days. But what the heck…
Eugenio Suarez hit a homer, his 13th. After a great day yesterday, Jesse Winker only got to pinch hit today. He walked, of course.
The relief corp of Asher Wojciechowski, Wandy Peralta, Michael Lorenzen, and Raisel Iglesias combined for eight innings in which they allowed just one run.
The Bad
–Oh, Scott Feldman. Feldman allowed five runs on five hits and a walk in just one inning of work. After he put the Reds at a 5-0 deficit — thanks mostly to home runs by Washington All-Stars Bryce Harper and Ryan Zimmerman — in the top of the first, the result of this contest was a foregone conclusion.
Even worse, it appears that Feldman is injured:
After 9 came to the plate in top 1, Feldman (down 5-0) went straight to the tunnel instead of dugout. Price and trainer followed. #reds
— Mark Sheldon (@m_sheldon) July 17, 2017
No word just yet on the nature of the injury, but we’d already noticed that Feldman’s velocity had been dipping lately. In the first inning today, he was throwing cutters that clocked in at 81 mph.
If you’re among the group that wants to see Feldman traded at the July 31 deadline, this may complicate matters.
UPDATE: Reds are saying that Feldman’s injury is “knee stiffness.” Okay…
Not-So-Random Thoughts
–The Reds were just outscored 35 to 12 in this dispiriting four-game sweep at the hands of the Nationals. First time the Nats have ever swept such a series in Cincinnati. Ugh. Can we just forget about this series?
–Adam Duvall picked up another assist in the outfield when he gunned down Harper at second base. That’s his eighth of the season, which leads the league.
–The Reds are 14 games under .500 for the first time this season. Next up: the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The game one pitchers will be Robby Ray vs. Sal Romano. Yep, it’s a Ray-Romano pitching matchup.
Milton was unhappy with Cincinnati’s performance today.
Hate it for Feldman and hope he recovers.
Never fear. TheReds will be able to get the bats rolling against lefty Ray and then Zack Grienke.
Feldman had a lot of bonus money due him for starts 20-26, $800k by my math, and the injury will likely keep that from happening. They’d be fiscal nuts to start him again.
Well this series should answer some questions atleast. No point in resigning Zack. No Feldman. 2018 is a wasteland with a top 5 pick attached. Price deserves to come back about as bad as OJ deserves to get out of jail.
Looking ahead, Castillo could be a game changer but I see Senzel as a cross between Kevin Seitzer and Scott Rolen. A very good player….maybe occasional AS but not a franchise changer. Of course those are so rare. With the nonstop losing…its really amazing that they were within seconds of losing Hunter Greene? I think that would’ve crushed them with everyone but the hardcore base. He may not pan out either but atleast there’s hope that he could pair up w/Castillo & Mahle at some point.
Nats are one of the best teams and we are one of the worst.Nothing else to say other then let the young guys pitch and pitch and pitch so we can sort and sort and sort.
Agreed, it’s time. Maybe past time to throw some of the young guys in there. If Feldman is hurt (I hope not for his sake), that will make it easy. Stephenson starts tonight, and if he continues to show solid command, he would likely get the call.
I don’t see the point in continuing to run Adleman out there. We need to stop saying he’s adequate because that hasn’t been the case in a while. He’s got a 5.79 FIP. I do believe he could be a solid bullpen guy, but he isn’t a rotation answer, and we need to start finding some answers.
He is not a solid bullpen guy. We have enough guys for long relief. Wojo one of them. He has better stuff and can strike somebody out. Adleman is a dime a dozen pitchers. You can find them anywhere.
Why didn’t Winker start? Is it cause he walked 3 times yesterday?
I’m guessing he thinks Persia has ‘earned it’ too then? Peraza should’ve sat today and Scooter should’ve taken his spot. Winker could’ve manned right field
Oops, *Peraza
Indy I love the Price and OJ comment but I wouldn’t be surprised if one or both get another shot.Sometimes people choose to not do the obvious because its so obvious it has to the wrong decision at least in their mind.
Price may survive this homestand but he’s dead man walking. Not that all the injuries, etc are his fault obviously but Bob C. will have to show the fans that he’s still awake. Billy Hatcher or someone will be the interim well before the end of the season. That’s my prediction (hope)
RIggleman would take over interim if Price gets the shown the door. Seen enough of Price. Slots Peraza at leadoff. Really?
Winker is a burr in the back side of the front office.See as it was mentioned on here he was the go to guy when Schebler or Duvall flamed out and we know how that turned out.So now they don’t have a spot for him even though Schebler played in center field today.It is obvious that Peraza will play everyday either at short when Cozy rests and at second when he plays.Scooter plays second when Peraza is at short and in right when Billy sets.This is how it has been and will be which is ok by me because even if Winker doesn’t play a lick his plate discipline and his hitting ability will get him on base more then Billy or Peraza ever have or ever will.Don’t get me wrong because I really hope that Billy and Peraza get their OBP up to league average and keep it there.If they do then our offense and team become much much better.While it was only one game what Winker did yesterday in a blow out game told me all I need to know abut this kid.File it and lets move on.
Looks hopeless right now. Last place destination seems to be fatefully on track. And we still have Price in charge of this debacle. Yuck!
We have to stay the course the next two months regardless.Lets just hope we sort as much as we can so as to not be talking about the same things next year.Its a process even though sometimes it appears we aren’t going anywhere.
Agree. I think things will change after the trade deadline.
With Feldman headed to the DL and Bailey continuing to work toward full strength, the Reds should use the other four starting slots for the sorting of the young pitchers in preparation for 2018. To help the sorting process, Price should be let go and an interim manager named for the last two and a half months of the season. Change is needed to get the Reds beyond the current state of depression.
I was thinking the same thing. A change now would at least give this team some energy. Feel bad for Feldman, he’s pitched better than anyone else who’s not Castillo or on the DL. What managerial candidate would enliven this team?
I think it’s very hard to predict baseball managerial success. Who thought in 1970 when Sparky Anderson took over from Dave Bristol that he would be a winning manager? I personally like the idea of Barry Larkin as Reds manager if he was in sync with the front office. But baseball history does not show many star players as successful managers. Probably an experienced ML coach who has that non-quantifiable ability to deal with highly competitive players could be a good choice.
I bet they don’t. Williams spoke before the AS break that the young guns would get more looks. A managerial change is needed when a team looks despondent, like they did today. Romano pitches tomorrow, Castillo is in the rotation, Stephenson is on schedule to take Feldman’s spot.
I’m not Price’s biggest fan, but I hate to stomp him too hard because I don’t know what the FO might be telling him to do, and I definitely don’t envy the rash of injuries that he has managed around. Imagine this team if Homer, Disco, and Finnegan had even 80% of the starts we’d projected for them. He was stuck with Bronson Arroyo in the rotation for what, 8 or 10 starts? Have to be careful about judging Price too harshly.
That said, I believe 100% it is time to move Cozy and whichever other expiring contracts we can move & also time to sort out the young pitchers.
I think the whole organization is to blame. Ownership for who they hired front office for some of there decisions, the manager for his decisions. For a new manager give me someone with a Sparky or Lou attitude.
Like Bryan Price, Sparky and Lou ( along with Stengall, Torre, Maddon, Francona and Bochey) lost about 100 games when they had bad pitchers. Attitude and that rah rah non sense doesn’t help you get anyone out. Bryan Price wins over 100 games with the 1975 Reds and Sparky loses about 100 with the 2015 Reds .
I keep reading people saying they haven’t given the young pitchers enough chances. For the most part, the young pitchers have gotten mashed in the big leagues. We’ve seen them all, and with the exception of Castillo and perhaps Romano and Jackson Stephens, they’ve all been roughed up multiple times. I’m not in favor of giving someone unlimited chances just because he has the label of “top prospect.” I AM glad to see that the two who are getting the chance right now (Castillo and Romano) have earned it by pitching decently when given the chance in the bigs.
That being said, I am off the Adleman bandwagon. For much of the year, he was a six-inning, three-run type pitcher that was better than anything we had. But he has strung several pretty bad outings consecutively, and it’s time for someone else to get a shot. Looking at the Louisville pitching stats, nobody is screaming “I’m dominating at Class AAA and ready to be a top big-league pitcher.”
So whoever is next, step on up to replace Feldman, at least temporarily. I hope you pitch well enough to earn another start. I wish they were all superb, but I would contend that sorting does not mean giving pitchers the chance to get repeatedly pounded.
I agree with Mitsoff about the prospects pitching chances. Castillo aside, most have been rocked. What is the point in bringing them back for a beating?
My thought exactly. Except for Castillo, our young pitching doesn’t look MLB ready. I’d go get Sonny Gray. He can be had for prospects.
There are a number of contending teams with very deep farm systems going after Gray. The price is going to be extremely high. Trading your best prospects… for a guy that you may need to trade in 2 years……while you’re not a contender…..is not something that any team would do. Last place teams don’t “buy high” at the deadline.
Agree. Reed in particular has given no reason to bring him back up.
I think our beloved Reds as a organization has derailed at the curse of so many bad contracts and useless trades. I also believe that a true rebuild must start with ownership, then management and finally results will be seen in the field. I just can recall the examples of Cubs, Astros and Rockies, to name a few. Hard to recognize it, but that’s the crude reality.
The Reds have 1 bad contract, (Bailey) and their trade history isn’t particularly bad. They have wiffed on some, done well on others. They don’t get them all right, no one does. Small market teams often have 2 distinct disadvantageous in trades:
1. When you’re trading for financial reasons you have no leverage. Other teams know you have to make the move. Part of the reason the Yankees received such a bundle in the Chapman/Miller trades was because they didn’t have to trade them. There were no financial pressures….the Yankees were only willing to move those guys on their terms.
2. The Reds and other small market teams need to retain as many prospects as possible since they can’t sign higher end free agents. This impacts the types of moves you can make. The Cubs can give up their best prospects because they can just charge more for beer and sign free agents to fill in gaps.
The Reds record over the past 20 years isn’t particularly good…..but its in line with other teams with similar resources. The Reds are a bottom third revenue team. There isn’t some rich unicorn in Indian Hill who’s going to buy the team and subsidize millions in losses each year to give the fans a winner….that doesn’t actually happen anywhere. Steinbrenner didn’t subsidize losses…..he reinvested massive profits.
The Reds have taken the appropriate steps to achieve a more consistent and sustainable level of success. Will it work? I have no idea…..but I know the feast or famine, boom or bust theory they subscribed to in the past didnt work.
They are 2 years in….the Cubs, who’s resources are surpassed by only the Yankees and Dodgers….took 3…the Astros had one of the worst 4 year records in the history of the game while rebuilding. The Rockies have generally been bad for a decade.
Being surpassed by the Cubs, Yankees, and Dodgers is to be expected. What is troublesome is that the Brewers had the lowest opening payroll in MLB (63 mil compared to the Reds 93 mil). I doubt they hold off the Cubs for the division, but just the fact that they’re 10th in ERA in mlb tells you that they’re figuring out something that the Reds can’t figure out? They play in a bandbox too! They found Thames. Did they trade for Travis Shaw or just sign him? Either way….he’s 5x better offensively then Suarez. He’ll be in the middle of their lineup for the next 4-5 years atleast.
Bottom line…they just seem to have the foresight that the Reds never have! You go to a Reds game in April and there’s about a 30% chance it gets rained out or delayed. They don’t have that problem! They know what they’re doing. I expect them to be ahead of the Reds for a long time!
I live in Wisconsin in Brewers country. Most people here are pleasantly surprised, but bracing themselves for what they see as the inevitable fall from first. The local radio sports talk host on the ESPN station fawns over Brewers GM David Stearns on a daily basis. According to this article, he has done a lot of things right:
http://reviewingthebrew.com/2017/06/11/milwaukee-brewers-david-stearns-mlb-gm/
I think the Brewers have done a really good job and should be commended. I don’t think they’ll hold off the Cubs but it’s been a great season and they’ve made some smart moves. Is it sustainable? Time will tell
I like their stadium but hate that it’s not downtown. I really like Milwaukee, just not the stadium location.
Two bad contracts if you count Phillips. We’re still paying him to play for the Braves this year.
Phillips’ production was in line with what he was paid. At the time it was signed, the Reds were in contention and it was a market rate deal. The issue with him was his 5/10 rights.
I agree with everybody in that for the most part all of our young pitchers have got hammered.Garrett was anointed after his first few starts and then got hammered.Now we have Castillo who will get hammered as well.The Reds have to develop their own players and the only way to do that is let them play.All pitchers,even the ones that turn out to be great,take time to develop and rarely does a young guy come in and pitch well and do it consistently.Disco started 31 times in 2015 and Finny did the same in 2016 and in both cases got hammered from time to time.Price always talks about wearing out the pen well pick you poison.Start old guys and vets that don’t make it past the 4th or 5th or start young guys that do the same.Position players get a longer rope when they struggle because they have 7 other guys that help out.Pitchers can lose the game for his team in the first inning thus the shorter rope.We can’t afford to not let the young guys pitch because we can’t afford to go out and buy a good one.The front office made a commitment to let Peraza play regardless but chose to not do the same with just one young pitcher.A few starts here a few starts there and then back to the minors while the old guys got pounded and pounded night after night.Makes no sense.
James, you are correct, all young pitchers are going to get hammered occasionally. Castillo will certainly have a bad outing. I think we all chalked up Garrett’s first bad outing to the maturity process until he got hammered several times in a row. I use the word hammered with a bit of license, because often it has been wildness which has been the undoing of these guys along with getting hit hard. Bottom line, you have to keep the opposition from scoring runs in bunches, and if you show over and over that you can’t, then it makes no sense not to try someone else.
The obvious exception is Homer Bailey, to whom you are paying $68 million over the next four years. In a lost year, you darn well give him a chance to pitch as often as necessary to try to recapture some value from that investment.
Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, Homer is due $44 million over the next two years, plus a $5mm buyout for 2020 that will be exercised, plus about $11 million still owed this year. They are stuck with him for two more years (2018 and 2019) at an average value of $24.5mm. Geez.
Teams with the Reds’ revenue streams simply cannot afford the risk of any long-term contracts with pitchers past about their age 30 year. They have to develop from within, and then deal them off or let them go free agent when their 6 years are up. Maybe they can pick up a rehabbing older guy on the cheap on a 1-year contract every now and then, but for the most part they are going to have to become the best in the business about developing young pitchers. That will require a lot of investment in top level coaching, medicine & training, bio-mechanical analysis, etc.
Lorenzen and Peralta were both starters in 2015. Both throw up to 99 and Peralta in particular has plus pitches with the changeup and curve to lefties (.156 vs LH). What other options do they have? I went to the Lville/Indy game the other night and I like Tyler Mahle! He throws to both sides of the plate and has a nasty slider but he’s about the only keeper imo. Romano, Garrett, and Stephens might make the back of the rotation at some point but that’s about it. Desperate times require desperate measures!
I included the current season in my total number:
http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/cincinnati-reds/homer-bailey-200/