We are now just about a third of the way through the schedule for the full season minor league teams. The MLB draft is just two and half weeks away and the Reds again have the 2nd overall pick. The Reds two Rookie league teams will begin play the week after the draft. We might also start seeing some players promoted to the next level in upcoming weeks. Let’s check in and see how things are going down on the farm.
AAA Louisville Bats
The Bats have a 16 – 29 record and are 4th out of 4 in the International League West.
International League hitters are hitting .253/.321/.388/.710.
OF Jesse Winker, .314/.390/.405/.795, who had a disappointing April (.673 OPS) is now hitting .354/.426/.476/.901 in May. C Rob Brantley, .287/.324/.426/.750, is having a nice season thus far. IF/OF Tony Renda,.303/.346/.395/.741, continues to swing a pretty good bat. SS Juan Perez (.935 OPS) remains on the DL. IB/OF Peter O’Brien was picked up by the Reds off waivers from the Royals. The RH hitting O’Brien is 26 years old and is hitting .259/.308/.504/.812 in 1102 PA at AAA. OF Phil Ervin (.632 OPS) and 2B Dilson Herrera (.647 OPS) continue to struggle at the plate.
International League pitchers have a 3.84 ERA.
The Bats have had a a hard time piecing together a starting rotation with the Reds constantly dipping down into the Bats roster for fresh and/or healthy arms to fill out their staff. The Bats have already had 14 different pitchers start games for them and the month of May is not yet over. Their current rotation consists of RH Jackson Stephens ( 9 GS, 5.76 ERA), RH Rob Wooten ( 6 GS, 6.94 ERA), LH Cody Reed (4 GS, 4.08 ERA), RH Rookie Davis (2 GS, 4.00 ERA), and RH Vin Mazzaro (1 GS, 20.25 ERA).  The Reds just signed the 30 year old Mazzaro who has a 4.79 ERA in 383 IP in the majors with five different teams from 2009-2016. RH RP Kevin Shackelford (1.27 ERA) has recorded 5 S and has 28 SO in 21.1 IP. RH RP Kyle McMyne (1.84 ERA), RH RP Evan Mitchell (2.63 ERA), RH RP Alejandro Chacin (2.93 ERA), and RH RP Louis Coleman (3.00 ERA) are pitching well out of the bullpen.
AA Pensacola Blue Wahoos
The Blue Wahoos have a 25 – 21 record and are 1st out of 5 in the Southern League South.
Southern League hitters are hitting .243/.322/.371/.693.
OF Tyler Goeddel who struggled at AAA (.424 OPS in 43 PA) is off to a great start at AA (.319/.396/.532/.928 in 53 PA). CF/1B Brian O’Grady, .202/.339/.442/.781, continues to produce at AA. C Joe Hudson,.265/.379/.367/.747, is doing well in his first 61 PA. 1B Eric Jagielo, .239/.333/.372/.705, who had a horrible April (.510 OPS), is now hitting .320/.443/.540/.983 in May. OF Aristides Aquino, .194/.250/.406/.656, had a putrid April (.479 OPS) is now hitting .222 /.282 /.569 /.851 in May. 2B Josh VanMeter (.278/.362/.346/.707) and IF Alex Blandino (.217/.362/.333/.696) are both hitting just above league average OPS with very good OBP percentages.
Southern League pitchers have a 3.59 ERA.
The Blue Wahoos pitching staff has an amazing 2.72 ERA this season. RH SP Tyler Mahle (1.59 ERA) has a 0.865 WHIP. RH SP Austin Ross (1.37 ERA), who is 28 years old, is having a great season thus far. RH SP Luis Castillo (2.82 ERA) is off to a very good start. RH SP Deck McGuire (2.73 ERA) is another 28 year old off to a real good start to the season. RH SP Keury Mella (5.06 ERA) is the only member of the rotation who is struggling. RH RP Jimmy Herget, (1.71 ERA) has recorded 11 S. RH RP Ariel Hernandez (1.64 ERA), RH RP Geoff Broussard (1.76 ERA), and LH RP Ismael Guillon (2.40 ERA) are all throwing very well out of the bullpen.
High A Daytona Tortugas
The Tortugas have a 25 – 20 record and are 1st out of 6 in the Florida State League North.
Florida State League hitters are hitting .256/.324/.373/.697.
2B Shed Long, .323/.373/.503/.876, has been tearing the cover off the ball and should be in line for a promotion to AA in the near future. 1B Gavin LaValley, .281/.339/.521/.860, leads the Tortugas with 10 HR and is making his case for a AA promotion as well. 3B Nick Senzel, .306/.366/.465/.830, leads the club with 18 2B and 14 BB. SS Alfredo Rodriguez, .276/.324/.312/.636, who had a rough April (.506 OPS), is hitting .337/.375/.398/.773 in May. OF Daniel Sweet,.261/.358/.294/.652, continues to get on base. C Chris Okey, .175/.252/.238/.490 continues to struggle at the plate.
Florida State League pitchers have a 3.67 ERA.
Starting pitchers Jose Lopez (2.56 ERA), Jonathon Crawford, (2.97 ERA), Wendolyn Bautista (3.00 ERA), and Jesus Reyes (3.38 ERA) are all off to good starts on the mound. SP Vladimir Gutierrez (5.63 ERA) has allowed 48 H and 8 BB with 50 SO in 40 IP. RH RP Ty Rainey (2.49 ERA) has allowed just 6 R and 6 H over 21.2 IP while recording 36 SO and 5 BB. RH RP Robert Stock (2.52 ERA), who is 27 years old, was just promoted to AA Pensacola.
Low A Dayton Dragons
The Dragons have a 30 – 14 record and are 2nd out of 8 in the Midwest League Eastern.
Midwest League hitters are hitting .246/.321/.375/.696.
OF T.J. Friedl, .292/.383/.468/.851, leads the club with 14 2B. C Tyler Stephenson, .291/.400/.418/.818, paces the team with 23 BB. 1B James Vasquez, .250/.336/.423/.759, is hitting well. OF Taylor Trammell, .248/.343/.414/.757, is doing very well for a 19 year old in a league where the average age is 21. 2B Brantley Bell, .285/.354/.389/.743, is have a good season thus far.  SS/2B Luis Gonzalez, .300/.338/.386/.724, is off to a good start in his 75 PA since coming off the DL. OF Michael Beltre, .252/.364/.345/.709, continues to get on base at a high rate.
Midwest League pitchers have a 3.85 ERA.
LH SP Scott Moss (1.91 ERA) has allowed 32 H and 18 BB with 62 SO over 47 IP. LH SP Wennington Romero (2.42 ERA) has allowed only 9 BB over 52 IP. RH SP Tony Santillan (2.76 ERA) has a 1.76 ERA in May. RH RP Joel Kuhnel (3.71 ERA) has recorded 6 saves. RH RP Aaron Fossas (1.73 ERA), RH RP Jesse Stallings (2.29 ERA), and LH RP Andy Cox (2.45 ERA) are all doing well out of the bullpen.
I’ve got to think that Suarez’s days as a middle infielder are over. He seems so much stronger at 3B.
Winker is what 23 years old?I don’t care if he is a slugger although at GABP he could hit some out.What we need is his OBP at the big league level.You could argue he needs to be up here after the break and lets see what he’s got.There will be enough at bats between he and the other 3 guys if done correctly.
Tom, I’ve got some bad news for you……
I’m glad WInker is hitting well but its takes ALOT of walks/singles to equal 35 bombs!! I remember my Cubs buddy complaining all the time back about 10 years during the Zambrano/Fukudome teams that they’d get routinely gets 2 runs on 10 hits or something similar. Winker is not even hitting doubles at this point and he doesn’t run well either. Duvall is also very good defensively! Duvall isn’t going anywhere anytime soon!
Duvall, Winker, Schebler, who ever. The problem the Reds have is that their starting pitching stinks. And all their promising minor league starters have tanked. Sure, bring up Winker, let’s see him play. If he looks good, trade somebody and plug him in. It will not fix their starting pitching unless that’s what you get in a trade.
So with the very splotchy starting rotation with a couple of retreads at AAA, when does Tyler Mahle get promoted? What more does he have to prove at AA? He is dominating that league (which apparently has a lot of pitcher parks in it).
Are we writing off Dilson Herrera?
I’m sure there are people who will say something like….wait and see. But Hererra is less than mediocre in the high minors. Sure, he was hurt in Spring Training, and he’ll get better. Just watch.
We got tooken on that trade.
I’ve finally figured out Reds math…..10 days = July 20th or so
In part the issue at Louisville is that they’ve paid the freight for the Reds starting pitching woes. Guys who should be pitching at Louisville are pitching for the Reds. I think it is good that in general the Reds have not tried to push forward true prospects into the breech at Louisville; but, it has made for a brutal situation for the Bats.
The Baseball America mock had Adell sliding to the Reds at 32. That would be my absolute dream draft. Wright or Adell at 2 to start.
I’ve been trying to advance an alternate theory. The Reds starting pitching is in such a sad state that the success of the entire rebuild cycle with the current group of MLB and near MLB ready players could hinge on bringing in an established outside outside arm (or two). Winker and not Duvall or Schebler is the guy who could get the Reds into the discussion for such a player.
The offense is good enough for now as is. Hunker down with the group they have at MLB eventually augmented by Ervin and likely Aquino; and, use Winker, perhaps along with Cozart as the headline guys to get the instant pitching help they need. Or wait until the off season and bundle Winker with some legitimate prospects further down chain for the same type of pitcher.
I understand Winker seems like a huge price to pay; but, using their internal resources, the Reds are no closer to having the pitching figured out than they were two years ago. Then looking at the young outfield on the field in Dayton, I see three guys playing at or ahead of their age level who all look to be able to bring to the table what Winker does, OBP, in packages which include more athleticism; and then to boot there are indications that Friedl and Trammell might even out slug Winker over time. Add in the possibility that with the glut of infielders the Reds have, Senzel could end up in the outfield, at least on an occasional basis much as the Cubs use Bryant. In essence, Winker could well be pushed out when this group arrives at MLB; so, his greatest value to the org might be what he can bring right now or in the off season.
Count me as another who doesn’t need Winker to be a 30 homer guy to be a productive bat in the Reds lineup. Especially with Duvall himself in a bit of a power slump and with an OBP historically stuck at .300 or less I would love to see Winker in left and batting 2nd. Package Duvall for pitching. If asked to pick three of four to keep from Suarez, Cozart, Winker and Duvall, Adam is definitely my odd man out. I’d extend Cozart, promote Winker, and lock in Suarez at third. He has been terrific with the glove there this year and I think the team is weakened if you move Suarez anywhere else. With Senzel still in AA, why are we so eager to move a major leaguer to a misfit position instead of grooming Senzel for a new spot in the field? I really like an infield of Votto, Senzel, Cozart and Suarez.
I with you I don’t want them to take McCay either. Im good with either Green or Wright.