Since I last wrote an overarching column, the Reds blew up everything, sending down Amir Garrett, Cody Reed, and Rookie Davis. That undoubtedly makes the Louisville rotation much better, but things are a little more confusing in Cincinnati. The most interesting demotion is Garrett, which has to be about service time (no matter what the official word is). That demotion tells us the Reds are still dedicated to The Plan, so I thought it would be a good idea to see where the plan is likely to take us by the end of the year.
The Rotation
Blah blah injuries blah. Given the nature of their injuries, I’m going to assume that it’s unlikely Anthony DeSclafani and Homer Bailey are both pitching at the end of the year. Brandon Finnegan probably will. And then it’s the kids. Here’s what I think the depth chart is in the second half:
- Disco/Homer
- Garrett
- Finnegan
- Reed
- Adleman
- Davis/Mahle
- Stephenson
Let’s start at the bottom. It tells you something that they haven’t sent Stephenson down and they haven’t tapped him to start any games yet. He may have entered sink-or-swim territory for the Reds. I’d bet he doesn’t get any chances to start until the Reds see he’s able to consistently throw strikes and control his pitch counts.
Tyler Mahle is coming along fast and probably needs to enter this column. I’d wager he’s in Louisville soon, but we’ll see. Davis probably wasn’t quite ready, but that doesn’t mean he can’t get there.
Adleman has shown, if nothing else, that he will not blow up. He’s reliable. He won’t be a world beater, but he’s providing solid innings, and that matters.
Cody Reed is in Louisville working as a starter. This tells us that the Reds still see him that way. He’ll get a chance before the year is over.
Amir Garrett is good. He’s not entirely polished yet, but he’s getting there. Once he does his two weeks in Louisville, I doubt he’ll see the minors again.
Lineup
There are two places right now where the Reds have more starters than they need – the middle infield and the outfield. They also have important infield and outfield prospects in the lower minors. Someone is getting traded eventually. Probably more than someone.
Cozart is easily the most likely to go, but Peraza or Herrera can’t finally hit in a consistent manner, there’s maybe at least some chance Cozart sticks around, but it’s unlikely.
In the outfield, I don’t know what’s going to happen Scott Schebler and Adam Duvall have hit very well. Jesse Winker has also hit well in Louisville. He’s much younger and also a completely different player than either Schebler or Duvall.
In the outfield, at least, this is a good problem to have, but something has to give. Many of these players are at peak value, but who knows. The Reds are generally deep enough that they may stick with what they have. Let’s just say that by the end of the year I think Cozart will be gone and there will be a real and clear pecking order in the outfield.
Conclusion
It’s still early, but it won’t be for much longer. June is on the horizon. Soon, roles will start to be doled out. Decisions are going to be made, and the team in September isn’t going to look like it looks now.
Forget about Romano? I say he sits somewhere between Reed and Mahle in the pecking order.
Yes Sal has excellent control he should be one of our starters. My 5 for end of year
1. Bailey
2. Finnegan
3. Garrett
4. Romano
5. Adleman
No way you give Davis or Reed another shot this year unless it is merit based or desperate measures to cover roatation due to an injury. Let them master control at Louisville before seeing GABP again.
Mahle still needs to face the next level of batters before jumping to the show. He needs 3 months of AAA cooking to be ready to serve.
I am with you on Reed. He has shown the ability to get major league hitters out.
He could not last year and has not this year. There is no point in bringing him back up unless he can locate his fastball and find another pitch yo offset the fastball.
I did forget about Romano. He’s also been injured though, so we’ll see about him.
Everyone is saying Winker is hitting well in Louisville. His stats are on Pace to be his worst career numbers yet. I expect a turn around but his play certainly isn’t forcing any replacement at the.major league level
I agree! Winker has an ISO of .076, OPS .737, and wRC+ 111. Schebler has an ISO of .282, OPS .858, and wRC+ 120. Duvall has an ISO of .277, OPS .853, and wRC+ 117.
If Winker can find his power, that almost instantly makes him a core player when coupled with his on-base ability. But yes, without that, he becomes significantly less valuable.
It’s because Stephenson is throwing more fastball less ok speed. When I see Bob Steve consistently throw his curve for a strike then and only then will I be in the camp that he needs a shot in the rotation
Stephenson has outings where the curve is the only thing he can get over. His fastball command is the problem. I saw Robert Stephenson types on a weekly basis–but that’s when I coached little league. 🙂
Keep both Schebler and Duvall when Winker comes up. They’ll make a nice platoon, and it’s always good to have a productive 4th outfielder/bat off the bench. People get hurt.
I agree. Unless someone makes a great trade offer, I see no problem having all three on the same roster.
Any chance they give Lorenzen another chance in the starting lineup? I know his role in the bullpen has worked out well, but he’s a whole lot better than pretty much anyone in the rotation right now.
I am a big billy fan, but I would trade him while hes still fast and has value. Find a younger long term CF, find a free agent for next season (jon jay type) to platoon with Schebler. Unless they want peraza to play there, but I dont think his bat plays anywhere but ss long term.
If Winker doesn’t find his power stroke, he will experience the billy hamilton treatment. The OBP and %BB will fall from his MiLB numbers as pitcher will force him to hit his way on. He will probably more successful in that endevor and not see the degree of drop but the power is what will keep pitcher honest and give him the opportunity to keep the OBP/%BB high.
Totally agree.
Disco, Lorenzen (or Peralta), Garrett, Mahle, and Finnegan. That could be an excellent rotation! If Homer can help out then that’s a bonus too. I know I pound this drum a lot…but they said the other day that Lorenzen had the 8th highest groundball % last year and Peralta has 3 elite pitches. Its almost criminal not to atleast try 1 of them in the rotation. They were both starters originally! I’m still high on Finnegan too. His velocity was up this year and he really made strides late last year with the changeup!
Disco and Finnegan are still hurt with no known timetable for return, Lorenzen is in the bullpen because his arm/shoulder weren’t holding up under a starting load, Mahle has 0 experience in AAA and isn’t on the 40 man roster, Peralta was awful as a starter in the minors (some guys just work better in a different role), and Bailey has barely pitched in the last 2 years. For the forseeable future, it’s going to be Garrett, Feldman, Arroyo, Adleman, and Bonilla. Romano might force his way up in the next month or so if he doesn’t have any setbacks.
I’m talking about a team that can realistically compete! We’re not competing with Adleman, Arroyo, etc.
Garrett will get sent down again around the all star break to get his option time over the 20 day mark and the Reds will get that extra year. Outside of that, he’s pretty much up to stay. He’ll be back now to make the start on Saturday.
Romano is throwing again, but isn’t throwing off of a mound yet last I had heard. He’s probably at least a couple weeks away from a AAA start.
Mahle will likely be in AA through mid to late June at the very least. He’s not on the 40 man roster, so unless we are in playoff contention and he forces his way up, don’t expect to see him in a Reds uniform until May/June 2018.
I’ll believe Homer is healthy and ready to pitch when I see it. You can’t count on him being available.
Things haven’t been sounding good on Disco, but it’s been a while since we’ve had an update.
Finnegan will likely make his way back this year at some point.
Get used to seeing a lot of Arroyo, Feldman, and Adleman to chew up innings unless some of the mainstays can start getting healthy.
Shopping Cozart is really a no brainer unless they come up with an extension that works for both but he will want more in money and years then we can afford.Billy can bring some prospects especially from a team looking for defense in center.As pitchers get healthy(Homer,Disco,Finny,Romano) they need to take the place of the warm bodies.While Feldman went 7 and 9 the last time and Bronson went 6 or 7 I expect them to return to 4 or 5 innings per start as they have done more often then not.Reed and Stephensen should get a few starts as well.
We won’t/can’t afford Cozart unless he gives us a discount in money or years or both.He won’t do it and neither would I.We do need defense in center but it comes down to how much we are willing or can pay for defense from Billy.These two guys are the next on the list for a bigger pay day.