As we have all observed, Eugenio Suarez is having a nice start to the 2017 season.Ã‚Â As of this writing Suarez is carrying a 200 wRC+ (good for 6th in the NL) and has accumulated 0.8 fWAR/0.9 bWAR in only 46 plate appearances.
Stat Geek Note: The difference between FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference WAR usually exists because B-R uses Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) for the defensive part of its WAR, and FG uses Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) for the defensive part of its WAR.Ã‚Â Due to the inherent volatility of defensive stats, FG has decided not to include the UZR part of WAR until later in the season when the numbers have had a chance to stabilize a little bit, so FGÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s Ã¢â‚¬Å“DefÃ¢â‚¬Â measure is merely a positional WAR adjustment this early in the season.Ã‚Â B-R goes ahead and includes DRS from the beginning.Ã‚Â Since Suarez has been a wizard in the field, thus far, his bWAR is higher than his fWAR.Ã‚Â Even though the difference seems small at 0.1 WAR, that represents a 12.5% difference right now.
I briefly thought about titling this article Ã¢â‚¬Å“Evidence of Early Cozart Excellence,Ã¢â‚¬Â but a .556 BABIP doesnÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t lead to compelling analysis. And, let’s face it, Eugenio is a darn cool name. Sure, Suarez is rocking a .433 BABIP, but thatÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s a little easier to wrap oneÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s head around. In addition, many of us at Redleg Nation are pretty high on Suarez.Ã‚Â HereÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s what I wrote about him before last season, if you have time to kill.Ã‚Â HereÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s something Jason Linden wrote about him if you have even more time to kill. If you have so much time to kill, it begs the question, where did you get so much time; and what did time do to you to deserve being killed?Ã‚Â Hm. Good. WeÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ve made progress today.
Even with the small sample sizes inherent in April baseball, we can sometimes notice if a player has made improvements in a few important peripheral statistics, such as how often he swings at balls out of the strike zone (oSwing%), and how often he makes contact with pitches in the strike zone (zContact%).Ã‚Â Decreasing your oSwing% while increasing or maintaining your zContact% is a solid method (not the only method, of course) for increasing productivity.
LetÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s check out EugenioÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s plate discipline stats:
What we see is a player who was very consistent in his plate discipline approach from 2014 to 2016, although he was a bit more passive in 2014.
The biggest takeaway from this chart is the oSwing% this season.Ã‚Â Suarez has cut the rate at which he swings at non-strikes from the mid-26s to right around 20%; also known as Votto territory.Ã‚Â League average oSwing% last year was 30.3%.
While cutting his oSwing%, heÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s also slightly increased his zSwing%.Ã‚Â We can all agree that if you are going to swing, itÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s better to swing at a strike than at a ball!Ã‚Â The difference between these two numbers gives a decent indication of a playerÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s overall Ã¢â‚¬Å“eye;Ã¢â‚¬Â how well they differentiate strikes from balls.Ã‚Â Suarez, for whatever reason, has had a slightly better eye this season.
His overall swing rate is basically identical to last yearÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s, but heÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s now swinging at more strikes than balls, which should lead to better contact if the approach continues.
How is Suarez doing in the contact department, then?Ã‚Â Pretty good, IÃ¢â‚¬â„¢d say.
So far in 2017, Suarez has hit 12 balls with an Exit Velocity (EV) of 100mph or greater. No other Red has more than 7 of those (Duvall and Schebler).Ã‚Â In all of 2016, he hit 67 such balls.Ã‚Â Another way of stating this; heÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s hitting the ball over 100mph 2.44 times more often in 2017 than he did in 2016 on a per-PA basis.Ã‚Â This is a good thing. ItÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s also early, so we can expect things to even out a bit, most likely.
Stat Geek Note: While 100mph is an arbitrary velocity to choose when doing analysis, it’s sort of turned into a de facto velocity for the perception of being hit hard.Ã‚Â If he’s simply turned a few 99mph balls into 100mph balls, there’s really no difference, but this early in the season it is nice to see an improvement anywhere you can find it.
Since both EV and oSwing% begin to stabilize fairly quickly, IÃ¢â‚¬â„¢d say there is a good chance Suarez has done something to his approach, either physically or mentally, that is letting him ignore more pitches out of the zone, leading to better contact on pitches in the zone.
Personally, IÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ve been high on Suarez for a while.Ã‚Â IÃ¢â‚¬â„¢d enjoy little else than seeing him put it all together this year.Ã‚Â A .280/.350/.500 line with well above-average defense could certainly be in the cards.Ã‚Â At third base, that is something like a 3.5 WAR season. I think weÃ¢â‚¬â„¢d all take that from Eugenio!
If he puts up those numbers with the bat and is good defensively, 3.5 WAR will be well in his rear view mirror when the season ends.
I honestly think that a 3.5 win season is maybe his 60th percentile result. I could definitely see him pushing past 5 wins if even some of the early trends continue. Of all the moves done for the rebuild, Suarez looked the best on day 1 and is looking better every day. The question is what are the Reds going to do about it?
Hot start aside, the Reds probably aren’t really ready to compete this year, and next year may even be pushing it given that some of they key pieces to the next good Reds team aren’t even in the big leagues yet (Winker, Senezel, maybe Herrera).
Suarez hits arb for the first time next year, which means he will really start to get paid a bunch in 2019 and 2020. So far the Reds front office has shown that the aren’t really that creative when it comes to contracts. They have mostly chosen to let homegrown players go through arbitration, potentially buying out two years at a time, and then trading them when they get to the end of those contracts. (See Leake, Frazier, probably Cozart this year).
So they could go the same way with Suarez, which seems like a bad idea because that would have him leaving right when the young core is (hopefully) ready to be really good, or the Reds could take one of two other options: 1) Trade him this year or next for a big haul of top tier prospects to be part of the new young core; of 2) Sign him to an extension sooner than later.
Either of those options comes with more risk than the Reds general MO with their homegrown players, but I think either would work out better in the long run. I would be happy if the Reds could sign him this year to a 5 or 6 year extension in the $10M -$12M per year range (a big raise now and a huge discount later).
But I also think the Reds could probably get several really good prospects for him if they traded him soon. 3 years of cost-controlled, young, proven, major league talent is incredibly valuable. He is exactly the type of player that GMs are willing to give up big prospect packages for because he isn’t a rental. Bringing in 2 or 3 more high-level prospects would really make the Reds farm system scary.
It will be interesting to see what they do.
I agree completely. If Suarez continues to play as he has so far both offensively and defensively, then Senzel is the one who will need to find a new position in order to crack the major league lineup.
Awesome piece Patrick! I, too, am on the Eugenio bandwagon. I think he’s probably tops on my list for current Reds I hope they can (and should) sign long term.
I’m pretty happy with my fantasy sleepers so far….Suarez, Mitch Haniger, Ender Inciarte, and Dylan Bundy!
Summary, Suarez is doing the thing that a Votto does (but that is the same thing that Marty wants him to change) and he is not doing the same thing that all other reds hitters do. You might as well start writing the next article “why we are screwed with BHam and Peraza batting 1-2”.
This is an excellent piece. I’d like to see Eugenio moved up in the order to either #2 or 3 (with Votto going to 2). I think 35 doubles and 30 HR is a possibility for him this season, and most importantly, an OBP above .350.
The Reds video board posted an image today of Cuban phenom Luis Robert photoshopped into a Reds uniform. Very interesting.
The players who are working Votto are making progress. Billy Hamilton is getting in base above .300. Suarez is certainly more disciplined. I think a strong Suarez give the Reds a load of options. Senzel will be ready in a year. Herrera might be ready. Peraza will hopefully continue to improve. At some point, they have one strong infielder too many and that’s a great thing – same in the outfield with Winker, Duvall, and Schebler.
I really like the way Dick Williams has structured this change process. And I like the way Price is managing this team – especially the bullpen.
I just happened to be looking at Reds hitting stats earlier today, and was looking at Eugenio’s career stats and noticed that in his entire minor league career he never had a wRC+ less than 102 (which was in his first year of AA ball). His second year of AA ball it was 135, AAA ball with the Tigers it was 159 (only 12 games), and AAA ball with the Reds it was 129. And his walk percentage was generally around 10% throughout. He finally has his walk rate up to 10% this year, which makes sense given his improved plate discipline. I don’t expect him to put up numbers as good as those last two years in the minors, but I don’t think it’s unrealistic for him to put up a wRC+ over 110, which last year would have been higher than every regular player except Votto and Bruce. He did manage a 106 in 2015, despite a terrible 4.3% BB%, so, he’s already been close to that. The defensive stats seem to give him positive ratings at 3B as well, so I’d guess 3.5 WAR is well within reach. Not that I have any idea how to translate wRC+ to WAR, but Duvall was 2.8 WAR with a 104 wRC+ and good defense, so I’m just guessing.
Patrick – I think you’ve pulled this number before, and I can’t find it, but what would be Eugenio’s xBABIP given his current profile? I’d be curious to know how far off his actual BABIP is from the expected value.
Oh hey, I’ll be out in Colorado Springs in a few months. Timing should work out that I get to see the Reds play in Denver.
Off topic, but any advice for moving to the Springs?
Well, when the Reds make the playoffs we’ll have to gather to watch them haha.