The Reds have finished a full week of games now and it’s safe to say we’re all pleasantly surprised. The longer this keeps up, the more glaring poor performances are going to become and the more likely the Reds will be willing to make a change (this will be extra true if the Reds suddenly begin playing very poorly). This is a roster with very, very few players who absolutely cannot lose their jobs and you have to believe that, eventually, someone will. We’re only a week into the season, and I hope you all know me well enough not to think I’m making genuine judgments on such tiny samples. But consider two examples. One in the outfield and one on the mound.

Right now, Scott Schebler is hitting .172/.321/.478. Despite the poor batting average, that’s an above average line overall, but it’s not sparkling. Contrast that with Jesse Winker, who’s currently hitting .318/.448/.409. How long until the Reds are willing to make a switch? It’s certainly more than a week, but a month? Two months? Eventually, if Schebler doesn’t perform and Winker does, Winker will get the call.

Now consider Robert Stephenson, Rookie Davis and Sal Romano. Romano played himself into the picture this spring and Stephenson seems to be getting close to playing himself out of the picture. Davis got the final nod, but hasn’t performed well in his first two starts. Stephenson has only gotten into one game, but it’s been the same story – not enough strikes – that has plagued his entire career. Romano has had one solid and one excellent start for Louisville. So how long does the current arrangement last?

General Manager Dick Williams has said they’re after results now and not potential. That’s what the fans want to hear, but it’s also a not-so-subtle message to the players. If you don’t perform, we have others waiting to take your spot. Starting this week and for the rest of the year, I’ll be listing the players on the roster who aren’t established with a brief word about how safe their jobs may be. All of which should be taken with a grain of salt until we have quite a bit more of the season under our belts.

Postion Players

Jose Peraza – Safe for now (would need to be bad for a while to lose his job)
Zack Cozart – Completely safe (needs to be traded or have something truly odd happen)
Adam Duvall – Very, very safe
Scott Schebler – Safe for now


Amir Garrett  – Very safe
Cody Reed – Safe for now (may be in line to start if Davis continues to falter)
Rookie Davis – Not safe
Robert Stephenson – Not safe

14 Responses

  1. sandman

    I think two months…if the youngsters mentioned in the article continue to struggle…then make the changes. But let them know they’ve got til the end of May/the First of June. That way, they’ve been warned, and they’ll either get their act together or if not then changes will be made.

    • Jason Linden

      I would agree. 2 months, barring total catastrophe. Rookie Davis won’t be allowed to pitch like this for two months, for instance.

    • Jordan Barhorst

      No, because every game since he’s pitched he’s either been unavailable, the game too close to bring in the long reliever, or already being handled by Reed.

  2. Steve Hanshaw

    Rookie Davis now on 10 day DL. It will be interesting to see how this shakes out – my guess would be Reed gets the spot in the rotation with Astin taking the spot in the pen, but I guess Romano could be the guy as well.

    OF will be interesting. Would the Reds consider a situation with 4 “starting” OF’s, with Winker/Duvall/Schebler splitting the days off evenly? Would love to have one of those guys available to pinch hit vs. Kivlehan who looks a bit overmatched (understanding the small sample size of course).

    • wizeman

      interesting but cant see duvall as part of that rotation. think leash pretty short on schebler. he takes kivlehans spot as a 4th outfielder.

  3. wizeman

    Reed pitched on the 6th and then not again until the 10th.
    stephenson pitched the 8th. think they threw about the same pitches first time out.
    not sticking up for him… he was bad… but the time between is normal.

  4. wizeman

    brought astin up. could use the bullpen arm for 4 days. maybe romano gets the start.
    what i am hoping for.

  5. wizeman

    think arroyo going to get one or maybe two more looks no matter what price says. but he will never give you more than 5 or 6. agree about davis slider. was everywhere. with starters not going deep… someone like reed might make a bit more sense to go long every fourth day. they are most likely hoping they can get better results from stephenson though his leash has to be getting tight.

  6. Joe Schmoe

    Why is everyone so down on Rookie Davis? Yeah his first outing was bad, but his second game was much better. 1 ER in 4 IP, and he only left because of injury. He may not be good yet but from what I’ve seen so far he definitely has potential

    • big5ed

      Davis looked about the way that Finnegan and Reed looked last year. And Cueto, Bailey, Maddux, Glavine, and Walter Johnson in their early outings. I thought he threw another couple of MPH harder, but it was only one night.

      There isn’t any reason to be “down” on Davis, but it may well be next year before he shows much progress. I suspect that they will send him to AAA in a few weeks, then bring him up again later in the season. But he is pretty close to being at the point where he needs to be in the Majors to learn what he needs to learn.

      • ben

        ‘down’ on him in the near term rotation is different than just ‘down’


    Duvall Very Very Safe? Come on. This guy’s solid. He’s not going anywhere.

  8. Jack

    You forgot Arroyo. Not safe. Should be the first to go.