I’m afraid this might be a little dated, given the news we received over the weekend about Anthony DeSclafani’s health, but let’s forge ahead nonetheless.

It’s the time of year when everyone wants to make their projections about the upcoming 2017 season. I’m more than happy to join in on that conversation, as you’ll note:

Now that’s a bold prediction, eh?*

As it turns out, even analysts who aren’t hopeless Reds fans are making projections, and some of them are even somewhat optimistic about Cincinnati’s chances. Take, for example, Baseball Prospectus, who foresees the Reds tying with the Cardinals for fourth place in the NL Central, and only five games behind second place:

UPDATE: I see that the projection is slightly less-optimistic now, with the DeSclafani news baked in, I presume.

How about FanGraphs? Well, they also have the Reds in a tie for fourth place in their projected standings (tied with the Brew Crew), but FanGraphs only sees Cincinnati winning 70 games.

Finally, we have USA Today, which doesn’t use any fancy computers to make their projections. They talk to people who have eyeballs! And that’s enough for them!

Also, they are the least bullish on Cincinnati’s prospects. But they’re wrong, I tell you!

If USA Today can do it, so can we. (As a matter of fact, the tag line for this site should be “Anything USA Today can do, we can do better!”) In the comments section below, give me your prediction for the final regular season record of the Cincinnati Reds in 2017. After everyone has chimed in, I’ll tally them up, average them out, and proclaim the result to be The Official Redleg Nation 2017 Reds Projection or some other similarly-ludicrous title.

Talk to me, Nation.

*Fine print: Projected win total includes all victories from regular season and Cactus League spring training games.

27 Responses

  1. sandman

    74-88 (not counting spring training, lol).

  2. cfd3000

    66 is way too low. Sorry USA Today – you’re wrong. But with Disco out my hopes for 81 or more have faded. I’m going with 76-86 for a realistic expectation, and proposing 85-77 as a best case without getting silly. That would include a healthy Mesoraco, no major injuries for the other seven starters, and solid development from at least two of Garrett, Reed, Stephenson and Romano.

  3. Jim Walker

    When I saw that “no fewer” than 81 wins tweet go up on Twitter, I noticed you hadn’t mentioned loses and figured you had an ace up your sleeve 🙂

    Despite myself, I’ll be something of an optimist and say 75-87 for the Reds in 2017 That’s based more on the rest of the Central Division except the Cubbies being in regression than it is on improvement from the Reds.

  4. ScottyA

    Without Desclafani and Bailey. 73-89, bad first half followed by a .500 ish second half like last year. Good start to spring training for Rookie Davis, Sal Romano and Amir Garrett, the future is looking brighter. Although, If Desclafani has to have tommy john it’s shoots a big hole in the 2018 playoff hopes.

  5. reaganspad

    With Sal Romano winning the rookie of the year and cy young this year after his May call up, I see us North of 81 wins as Disco and Homer will add by the All Star Break where we are trading pitching and pieces to upgrade our playoff roster

    My only concern is what kind of flack we take when we want to nickname him Sudden Sal from O fans

  6. Nate

    78-84 They’ll start hot, fade away to the all start break, get hot at the end of July just to fall shy of .500 in the last 2 weeks.

  7. Dick

    78 – 84. That’s my story & I’m stickin’ to it.

  8. hof13

    80 – 82. I have high hopes. (Whoops there goes another rubber tree plant…and another Cardinal loss)

  9. citizen54

    78-84. Our pen is improved from last year. I think BH maintains his second half numbers. Votto remains Votto. Reed and Stephenson take a step forward. Garret or Aldeman exceeds the production from last year’s #5. Peraza dips a little but he and Dilson still outproduce Phillips. Cozart is a bit worse. Mez bounces back a bit. Suaerz improves and is slightly above average. Corner OFs better than last year with the addition of Winker.

  10. KetteringRedsFan

    Had you asked 48 hours ago, I would have suggested a very conservative 80-82 (i.e. more upside potential than down)

    Now, who knows? I’ll probably – and arbitrarily – end up trimming 4 wins or so off that. Depends on Disco’s MRI. If it’s a short (gad – given the Reds’ recent history, dare I say “normal”?) DL, then I’m back up to78-80.

    Even with a stabilized bullpen, in reality it comes down to character. Can a young team like this one find the resilience to come back when they find themselves three or more runs down after 4 to 5 innings? (There are, after all, likely to be a disproportionate number of 4-5 inning starts in the front part of the season given the untested rotation). If they can avoid finding themselves in that pit, then the bullpen might just pull them through.

    Separate question – haven’t been paying attention to the other clubs off-season. The BrewCrew are the BrewCrew, but why is the Parrot up and the Bird down?

  11. Chuck Schick

    There tends to be a consistent correlation between one’s winning percentage within the division and overall winning percentage.

    2016 Reds- 43% Division-42% overall

    The Reds were 33-43 in the division. The Reds went 4-15 against the Cubs and 29-28 against everyone else. My guess is they win a couple of more against the Cubs and 2 more (total) against everyone else….for a total of 37 wins in the Central.

    That should work out to about 76-77 wins overall.

  12. JB WV

    85-77. Improved offense, improved bullpen(which lost a lot of games last year). Reds fade late in August after contending.

  13. G-Man

    Here’s my very unbiased predictions on why the Reds will easily surpass expectations in 2017 and will end the year with 85 wins:
    – Mez will rake at the plate for the 110 games he plays at catcher hitting .290/.350/.550
    – Suarez will hit 30 bombs
    – Hamilton will have an OBP of .360 and will steal 80 bases…and will be ESPN’s play of the day a record 10 times for his comic book hero defense
    – Schebler will play the full year in RF and will hit .300
    – Votto will match his offense from 2016 and will win a Gold Glove for his defense
    – Amir Garrett will join the starting rotation and will win the ROY award
    – Michael Lorenzen will be switched to the starting rotation and will win 20 games…and will hit 5 home runs ala Madison Bumgarner
    – Homer and Disco will recover from their injuries much quicker than anticipated and help lead the Red’s to the playoffs
    – Bryan Price will remain calm, cool, and collected during all interviews with the media

    • cfd3000

      G-Man they’ll win 85 games if half those things come true. Impressive optimism sir!

  14. TR

    The Reds will avoid 90 losses with 75-87. The bullpen will be improved but there won’t be a lot of games for the closer to close on. The maturing of the young pitching will put off the Reds competing until 2019.

  15. Sliotar

    66-96

    Bold predictions:

    -Because the Reds don’t see their window starting until 2019 or 2020, IMO, someone not expected to be traded gets dealt this summer….Mesoraco. DeSclafani….maybe even Hamilton.

    -I enjoy a beer (responsibly) at GABP. The Reds, too, want to enjoy a beer….top prospect OF Seth Beer. They won’t mind “out-badding” the Padres for the no. 1 pick, if they can do so.

  16. sezwhom

    Homer out, now Disco on the shelf for at least a month and I’ll say even longer so hard to get fired up. Another season to focus on the up and coming young players. Getting used to it.

  17. Jim Walker

    Do you see contributors from the 1st half being traded or perhaps young rotation pitchers running out of innings later in the season or both?

  18. Earl Nash

    I guess the good thing with the shabby rotation is that if the pen follows through, the Reds really only need six innings out of them.

  19. Simon Cowell

    60-102
    Nothing positive to mention so far in Spring I’ll stay negative until otherwise.

  20. Indy Red Man

    73-89….offense and pen will be better but starters are Scott (Corey) Feldman and the Lost Boys! Feldman isn’t really that good either. I’m still looking forward to all the young guys and seeing how they progress.