Jose Fernandez entered play today as one of the most dominating pitchers in baseball, and one of the toughest to hit a home run against. Fernandez 0.65 HR/9 is good for the 7th best in the majors.

Ramon Cabrera entered play today with 0 home runs in 100 at-bats in 2016. Cabrera only had 22 career home runs in nearly 3,000 at-bats in the minors.

You can’t predict baseball.

Cabrera ripped a three run bomb in the second inning off one of the best pitchers on the planet. It was his first home run of 2016. The Reds added two more runs off Fernandez, and chased him after just four innings. The Reds bullpen was shaky, but Raisel Iglesias finished off the Marlins in the 9th for 5-4 win. The Reds took three of four from the Marlins, and have now won eight of ten series to begin the second half of the season.

Final R H E
Cincinnati Reds (51-69) 5 8 2
Miami Marlins (62-59) 4 8 2
W: Straily (9-6) L: Fernandez (12-7) S: Iglesias (2)
FanGraphs Win Probability | Box Score | Game Thread

Biggest Play of the Game

According to Fangraphs WPA statistic (winning percentage added), the most important play of the game was Ramon Cabrera’s 3-run home run off Jose Fernandez with 1 out in the 2nd inning, giving the Reds a 3-0 lead (video). That play increased the Reds chances of winning by 22.5% (from 59.0% to 81.5%).

MarlinsRedsWPA

Player of the Game

Dan Straily: 6.0 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 7 K, 2.98 FIP, 0.15 WPA

Straily

Just another nice start from Dan Straily. In his last 3 starts, he has 17 strikeouts and ZERO walks. That is flat out getting it done.

Positives

Cabrera

Big night for Ramon Cabrera. He had two hits on the night, including the big three run bomb off Jose Fernandez (video). That had to feel really good for Ramon.

Blake Wood got out of Jumbo Diaz mess in this 7th inning with a big strikeout. He also pitched a scoreless 8th inning.

Joey Votto‘s hit streak might have come to an end at 8, but he did walk twice (once was intentional). Votto has now reached base in 30 of his last 31 games. Votto also made a really nice defensive play in the 1st inning (video). Votto has looked much better defensively of late.

Eugenio Surarez had an RBI double (video), and also made a really nice catch reaching into the stands (video).

Billy Hamilton is so freaking fast. He tagged up from second base on a fly ball to center, appeared to bait Marcell Ozuna into a throw, and Ozuna made a bad throw allowing Billy to score (video).

Raisel Iglesias pitched a perfect 9th inning for his second save.

Negatives

Jumbo Diaz not only gave up a hit and walk in his two-thirds of an inning, but he also had a throwing error.

Not so random thoughts………

Raisel Iglesias = great as a starter…..move him to the bullpen

Raisel Iglesias = even better as a two inning reliever……move him to a 1 inning closer role

Oh boy.

Up Next:

Dodgers at Reds
Friday, 7:10 PM
TV: FOX Sports Ohio
Tim Adleman (3.72 ERA) vs Bud Norris (4.26 ERA)

 

All statistics used courtesy of Fangraphs, Baseball-Reference, and ESPN Stats & Info. All photos are used courtesy of the Cincinnati Enquirer, and are used by permission.