Final R H E
Cincinnati Reds (19-35) 11 14 0
Colorado Rockies (24-29) 4 5 1
W: Simon (2-5) L: Butler (2-3)
FanGraphs Win Probability | Box Score

The Good
–Where should I start? The Reds pounded the ball all night long, and it was fun to watch.

–Let’s begin with Eugenio Suarez, who collected the first multi-homer game of his career on a night where he went 3-5 with a double to go along with those two bombs, plus 4 RBI. The second homer was a moon shot that landed 465 feet away.

–Zack Cozart homered, doubled, and walked. Adam Duvall homered and singled. Each drove in two runs.

–Joey Votto had two hits, including a double, and a walk. Jay Bruce doubled and tripled, driving in two runs.

–The Reds bullpen — JC Ramirez and Josh Smith — were perfect in two innings of work.

The Bad
–Nothing at all. That’s two straight nights that I didn’t have anything to write in this section. What a world we live in.

Not-So-Random Thoughts
–That was fun.

–Yes, it was Denver, but you gotta hope that it’s an indication that Votto and Suarez are back on track. Honestly, I feel pretty good about Votto at this point.

–Also glad to see that Cozart and Bruce continue to rake. Cozart has actually increased that on-base percentage lately; he’s hitting .306/.333/.524 on the season with 7 homers and excellent defense. #VoteZack

As for Bruce, what a season he’s continuing to have. To go along with his 11 home runs and 36 RBI, Bruce is hitting .275/.323/.571 with a .373 wOBA and a wRC+ of 132. That’s good.

Oh yeah, and he also leads the majors in triples, with five! #VoteJay

–Watching Billy Hamilton get an infield hit on a grounder to first base, as he did in the fifth inning tonight, will never get old.

–The Reds won three out of four! Interestingly, they only out-scored the Rockies by two runs in the series. It’s the first series the Reds have won on the road all year.

–Back to the Queen City, where the Reds will welcome Dusty Baker and the Nationals to town over the weekend.

62 Responses

  1. TR

    Big win and first series win since April 20th. A tough three game series coming up with Dusty and the Nats.

  2. Daytonian

    It was fun! The joy of baseball came back.

  3. ohiojimw

    Like I said last night, there’s a reason they actually play the games versus just crunching the numbers and posting the outcome…….

    Lamb and Simon were supposedly going to get crunched but ended up with the two longest outings of the year for the Reds even though Simon did lose a quality start with the 2 run HR by Story in the 7th.

    • pinson343

      Yes I was sure they’d do about as well as Moscot did. You just never know in baseball. I would argue that, all things considered, Simon pitched better than many a “quality start” (see below).

  4. ohiojimw

    It looks like all the bad karma in the Reds org today belatedly found its way to Louisville.

    The Louisville versus Toledo game went to the top of the 9th as a scoreless tie. Then from a position of 2 out and nobody on base, the Bats proceeded to allow 11 runs to be scored against them. Let me repeat that so you don’t have to go back and read it over, from a position of 2 out and nobody on base, the Bats proceeded to allow 11 runs to be scored against them.

    For nonbelievers, here’s the play by play transcription link….

    Wandy Peralta who had replaced starter Keyvius Sampson to begin the 8th started the 9th on the mound for the Bats and was eventually tagged with 5 of the 11 runs. However, 3 of the runs charged to Peralta crossed the plate when Drew Hates served up a grand salami to the first batter he faced. Hayes then went on to allow 5 more runs before recording the final out.

    The footnote to what became the big story is that Sampson recorded 12K’s in 7 scoreless innings on the mound while walking 2 and allowing only 2 hits.

    • pinson343

      I’l take the Sampson start as the positive from that. In his brief last time up with the Reds, he didn’t fare so well, but his stuff and command looked better to me.

      • ohiojimw

        Sampson seems to bring more focus to the job when he starts; but given the Reds depth and how poorly he fared at the second time through the line up in his MLB starts last year, it will be tough for him to get another look as a starter at MLB from the Reds.

        His total stats in AAA this year really do jump out just looking at the numbers. In 10 appearances, including 5 starts, covering 32.1 innings, his WHIP is 0.93; ERA 1.67, K/BB ratio just under 5; BB/9IP 2.25; K/9IP 10.6

        Is there such a thing as a pitching equivalent to a career 4A slugger?

      • Shchi Cossack

        “Is there such a thing as a pitching equivalent to a career 4A slugger?”

        Yes, Absolutely. Take a look at Jumbo. He lights up the AAA hitters with his fast ball, but gets lit up by major league hitters who can easily deal with his heater. There are good hitters in AAA but not nearly as many as in the show, so there are simply more opportunities to get burned if a pitcher can not throw strikes or doesn’t have any compensating secondary pitches. I’m not sure Sampson qualifies yet as a AAAA prospect, but he certainly hasn’t completely figured things out yet as a prospect.

    • VaRedsFan

      That’s incredible!! How was Hoover not a part of that fiasco?

      • ohiojimw

        Even more amazing was that all in all Peralta has been pitching well, first getting himself promoted from AA where he started the year then going on solidly establish himself as somebody to watch going forward. Even with the debacle on Thursday his WHIP is till 1.15.

        Assuming the stats sites have completed their overnight updates, Peralta is at 11 innings over 9 appearances counting last night, basically a one inning and done rate. I have to think he simply hit a wall big time after 5 outs on Thursday.

    • Patrick Jeter

      Wow. That’s insane. I wonder if that’s ever been done before… 11 runs in the 9th with 2 outs.

  5. pinson343

    Another Reds win and another Chad post. I’m enjoying this while I can.

  6. pinson343

    Alfredo Simon not in the recap ? His going 7 innings limited the bullpen’s work to 2 innings (with a huge lead), he played a much bigger role in the win than they did.

    At Coors, scoring 11 runs isn’t necessarily a big deal, unless you hold them to 4 runs, which was thanks to Simon. The 6 Ks and only 5 hits allowed were both impressive.

    I never ever would have guessed that he and Lamb (who pitched even better) would have fared well at Coors. Game 2 of the series (17 runs allowed in 8 innings) showed what can happen.

    The 3 HRs allowed by Simon ? Put that in the “BAD” if you like, but it’s so bad in Coors pitching to a lineup with a hot Cargo and Arenado in it.

    • pinson343

      “it’s so bad” => “it’s not so bad”

    • greenmtred

      Glad that you pointed that out, Pinson.

    • ohiojimw

      The key was that the rest of Simon’s pitching was good enough that 3 dingers only cost him 4 runs at Coors.

      How many times have we seen the Reds out homer opponents but come up short because they were all solo shots. Good to be looking down the opposite end of the telescope.

    • vegastypo

      “At Coors, scoring 11 runs isn’t necessarily a big deal, unless you hold them to 4 runs, which was thanks to Simon. The 6 Ks and only 5 hits allowed were both impressive.”

      No lead is big enough at Coors. The Reds had 9 runs already, I think, and Billy Hamilton was still stealing bases. In some venues, that might have gotten the next hitter buzzed with a fastball, but in Coors, keep scoring! And the Rockies know that.

      So was I ever totally comfortable with the lead? Especially with the Reds’ bullpen lurking? That would be ‘no,’ and then I saw where the Padres led 12-2 after 5 innings in San Diego, not a hitter’s ballpark, against the Mariners, and still managed to lose 16-13.

      So for once, yes, give Simon his due. He ate some innings, and we didn’t get the indigestion.

  7. pinson343

    I’m looking forward to seeing Dusty come in to Cincy. After the Reds I thought he’d never get to manage again, but the situation with the Nats is perfect for him. A lot of talent there, just get them to stop fighting with each other.

    • ChrisInVenice

      I hope Dusty gets a nice reception.

      • seat101

        Sure he will! From those who are sad he is gone there should be cheers and from those who are glad he is gone there should be hosannas!

      • docmike

        I’m certainly glad he’s gone, but I would never boo the guy or anything like that. As someone else mentioned, I’m glad he’s managing somewhere else.

      • Patrick Jeter

        Agreed. I disliked his in-game management and some of his on-camera persona, but I’ve never heard a player say anything bad about him. I’d never boo the guy, even though I’m glad he’s moved on.

  8. big5ed

    Chris Welsh said in the broadcast that John Lamb told him that Lamb had actually studied video–for the first time–before his outing in Colorado. Apparently, Lamb did so with Dan Straily; yet another reason to be a Straily fan.

    • The Duke

      Sounds like at least up to now Lamb has been trying to coast by on talent. Didn’t study video apparently, he pretty obviously doesn’t work out much, and his velocity seems to drop every time he gets injured and comes back. Maybe a little more time in the film room, weight room, and trainers room, and a little less time coifing his hair and planning on where to put his next tattoo.

      And yes, Straily has bee pretty good. He deserves to stick around in our rotation for a while still. More so than Moscot, Simon, and Lamb. Still 4 years of team control too.

      • ohiojimw

        I wouldn’t sell Lamb short. Although he was a 5th round draft pick, he had pitched his way well up the Royals prospect list as a power pitcher before he blew out his elbow. Following TJ surgery, he was not one of the guys who came back throwing as hard as he had before; but, he seemed to be completing the process of reinventing himself when he was included in the Cueto trade. Now he has the back surgery and fall out from it to work through.

        To me the shocking part of commentary about video study is that apparently the Reds don’t have any kind of organized and directed program utilizing it.

      • big5ed

        We don’t really know how much video, if any, is available in the minor leagues, so it is hard to know how a pitcher would learn how to utilize video while still in the minors. And Lamb came up last year after all the veterans were gone, so the younger starters didn’t really have any teammate to sit down with them and guide them on what to look for. I guess the pitching coaches could help, but it seems like something a veteran pitcher would be ideally suited to teach.

        At least Lamb and the other younger guys are now trying to use video to prepare.

      • Steve Mancuso

        That’s a good point about the minor leagues. Although when you think about it, maybe it’s more important to have in the minor leagues than the majors. Doesn’t strike me that it would be that expensive to have at each step of the minor leagues and teach the pitching coaches how to use it. I wonder if the Reds have that level of coordination in their minor league system.

      • Shchi Cossack

        That fact that we would even wonder “if the Reds have that level of coordination in their minor league system” represents a sad commentary on the Reds organization and development philosophy, not to mention a basic baseball philosophy.

      • big5ed

        Lamb apparently reviewed video of Rockies’ hitters, using the MLB video database. I doubt if a similar database is available for Reds’ AA pitchers who want to see video of, for example, the Indians’ AA hitters over the past 10 days.

      • JB WV

        Agree. We haven’t seen Lamb at his best yet. And Moscot looked better last year before the shoulder injury. He’s still working his way back.

  9. zaglamir

    I think not being worried about Votto is a good move. There was a fiveThirtyEight article that pointed out he’s actually hitting the ball just as hard as he always has, based on exit velocity, and with the same line drive rate. He was just hitting it exactly where “they are.” Glad to see this team with some life in it. Little wins like these will make the season palatable.

    • vegastypo

      The biggest thing to me with Votto wasn’t how hard he was hitting the ball,he was hitting his share of ‘at ’em balls,’ but the frequency. His elevated strikeout total was what worried me.

  10. Shchi Cossack

    Well Darn. That’s the last the Reds hitters will see of Coors Field this season, but they do make another trip to Milwaukee. The Reds hitters did what good hitters are suppose to do in Denver.

    Just taking a snapshot of the offense after 54 games, the Reds are in the bottom third of the league (11th of 15, .702 OPS) and middle of the pack (9th of 15) in runs scored. In looking at individual league performances, the Reds have 1 hitter in the top 15 (Bruce, 14th @ .895 OPS), 3 hitters in the top 30 (Duvall, 23rd @ .878 OPS & Cozart, 27th @ .857 OPS), 4 hitters in the top 60 (Votto, 58th @ .753 OPS) with Suarez just missing the cut (61st @ .734 OPS).

    That’s with Votto tanking for the 1st 2 months of the season and Mesoraco MIA. Cozart will almost certainly be gone before the ned of this season. Bruce may or may not be gone, depending on how much he wants to continue wearing the Wishbone C as opposed to maximizing his next contract and how much the Reds might value his offensive contributions going forward. One thing seems fairly certain, both Cozart and Bruce have established market value for any trade and should return reasonably good value as a top SS and a top LH masher.

    Duvall may or may not maintain his superior offensive performance, but he has sure firmly planted himself into the conversation for 2017. Suarez has continued to impress offensively but still lacks a defensive position.

    Phillips is refuting his spendid performance from last season and is producing at replacement level, both offensively and defensively, making his 2015 results look like an outlier from his regression since his age 30 season in 2011, yet he continues to hit in the middle of the lineup. I would hope that his role on the team would be reduced significantly is a better option becomes available, but the fact that Pacheco has a role on the 25-man roster doesn’t make that very likely.

    Tyler Holt and Ivan De Jesus provide defensive flexibility and replacement level performance at replacement level cost and appear to have likely utility roles roles going forward along with Tucker Barnhart.

    Jesse Winker and Jose Peraza look like AAA fixtures for regular playing time and September call up options unless Cozart (Peraza to SS), Phillips (Winker to LF w/ Suarez to 2B & Duvall to 3B) and/or Bruce (Winker to OF) are moved prior to the trade dealine this season.

    The Old Cossack is liking the way the offense is shaping up right now, but there are wquestions that still need to be answered or addressed. A few strong minor league performances for the rest of season could help a lot to clarify future options.

    • WVRedlegs

      I feel much like you about the offense. Very cautious optimism. Questions still abound. I looked around the field last night, and BP is really the one that needs to be replaced in the lineup.
      Mesoraco’s injury has put the C position in a weakened spot. That is why I would move quietly in trying to obtain Jonathon Lucroy from the Brewers. If you could take Stephenson, Reed, Garrett, and Winker off the table and get the Brewers interested in some pitching and INF players, the Reds and Brewers could match up well. I think this is where 2B Tony Renda might help in a package. The Brewers will need a replacement for Scooter Ginnett at 2B soon.
      I’d then move Votto to second in the lineup and slot in Lucroy at third behind Votto.
      If Mesoraco comes back from his shoulder injury next spring and is hitting, then that would be a good problem to have, as one C can be traded. Maybe Mesoraco to an AL team in need of a DH.

      • Westfester

        Lucroy has already come out before the season and said he wants to play for a contender.

      • lwblogger2

        I’m curious as to rather or not the Reds are one of the 8 teams that Lucroy may veto a trade to.

    • vegastypo

      I chuckled last night as Duvall was at the plate with a runner in scoring position, and he must’ve have fouled off several pitchers, including one that Marty said was clearly ball four. That sounds like the profile noted in the Trade Adam Duvall post. … Then Duvall singled, I think it was on the next pitch. Gee, if that were always the outcome!

    • JB WV

      I don’t know, Cossack. I’m starting to hope the Reds keep Zach. Outside of Peraza there doesn’t seem to be a guaranteed ML middle infielder in the system right now. Certainly not with his glove.

      • Shchi Cossack

        Both Cozart and Bruce are controlled through the 2017 season. Cozart will be 3rd year arb eligible and due for a significant bump from his current $3MM salary, but even then will be more than affordable. Bruce has a $13MM club option with a $1MM buyout, less affordable but the Reds would be looking at an extention or trade for Bruce. Cozart will play his age 32 season in 2018 while Bruce will play his age 31 season in 2018.

        An extension for either Bruce or Cozart must be limited in duration to avoid the BP outcome. If such a contract is obtainable, I’m all for signing either or both players, but the years and dollars must be doable for the Reds and the equivalent financial return from any trade must also be factored into any extention decision.

        I don’t see any other new extentions having a cost impact over the next 3-5 seasons. Phillips contract comes off the books after the 2017 season. Mesoraco’s contract comes off the books after the 2018 season. Bailey’s contract comes off the books after the 2019 season ($5mm buyout) or after the 2020 season. The financial impact of any future contract extentions should not occur until after the 2020 season.

    • lwblogger2

      I’d be stunned, and I mean STUNNED, if Bruce wasn’t traded before the non-waiver deadline. That is assuming he’s healthy.

  11. james garrett

    Winning baseball is always good and we will be a better team the second half of the season.Lets not forget we still have a long way to go to start competing for the playoffs and many tough decisions have to be made about this roster.I hope the front office is up to the task.I am excited never the less as we go through the rest of the year.

    • greenmtred

      I like to be optimistic (like to be, but rarely am). However, if Bruce and Cozart are traded, as everyone appears to expect, the Reds probably won’t be better the second half, since one would hope that the return in those trades would be prospects.

      • mdhabel

        I keep getting confused on all the service time and Super 2 dates but is Winker in line to get called up to replace Bruce?

      • Steve Mancuso

        The Super Two cutoff varies from year to year. It depends on the rate at which other clubs promote their players who then stay up in the major leagues. So teams sort of have to guess, although I hope the Reds are also systematically tracking the situation. We are past the deadline of the Super Two cutoff last year.

        With Adam Duvall playing like he is and with Bruce still on the team, right now there’s no playing time for Winker. He’s better off developing in AAA. If/when the Reds trade Bruce, you’ll likely see the promotion of Jesse Winker for good.

      • ohiojimw

        I think most folks believe Winker would be brought up if Bruce is dealt. Right now, Winker has the “extra year” part covered and is in the gray area on Super2 since that is a moving target every year. It is probably late June to early July to be totally safe on Super2. I’m sure all the teams monitor they guys being brought up “permanently” by other teams and the dates they are brought up to keep a pretty good running account of where Super2 is at any specific time.

      • big5ed

        There could be a spot for Winker if Phillips relents and accepts a trade, or gets hurt. Winker to left; Duvall to third; Saurez to second. They would probably just call up Peraza in that situation, but they have to leave him in the minors until Point X to address his “years-of-control” issue.

      • Patrick Jeter

        Based on some research I’ve been doing, calling a player up before Super2 and thus, thrusting him into Super2 status, would cost the Reds between $1.2 million and $1.5 million per player.

        Essentially, the difference between league minimum and the average arbitrated salary of a Super 2 player.

      • Patrick Jeter

        Duke, depends on the player, you’re right.

        Seems like there isn’t really a strong connection between a player getting Super 2 in one year and getting a ton more in year 3 than a player with similar stats who didn’t get Super 2 status. It’s looking like it’s almost entirely based on stats.

        But, I’m not done with the research yet! Hope to be done sometime late this month and write it up.

  12. IndyRedMan

    Duvall, Suarez, Bruce, Votto, and Cozart are on pace for over 150 HRs and we’re horrible. Arenado is on pace for 50+ and Story for 40+. Mookie Betts hit 5 HRs in 2 games this week. Pads were up 12-2 last night and lost 16-13? Scoring seems way way up this year for some reason?

    • Patrick Jeter

      Isolated Power is at a 13 year league-wide high of .157. Walks are at a 6 year high, and strikeouts at an all-time high!

      Looks like the league is on pace to score its most runs since 2009.

  13. ohiojimw

    Here is something to chew on thru the afternoon. Micheal Lorenzen (@lorezen55) was apparently “reading the mail” when someone tweeted Reds beat writer Mark Sheldon (@m_sheldon) asking how soon Lorenzen might be back with the Reds. @Lorenzen55 jumped directly into the the stream with this reply “really close”

    • Steve Mancuso

      Saw that. Great news. Wouldn’t be surprised if he’s the Reds closer a few weeks from now. Kid has the right motivation level.

      • WVRedlegs

        Chris Welsh said during the Reds Caravan back in January that Lorenzen was the best candidate for the closer role. Welsh loves his makeup and moxy, and thinks he will be a great closer. Welsh has mentioned it a couple of times on the telecasts. I think Welsh is right too.
        It has been a painful waiting process, but things will start to shake out soon. As Barnhart also said on the Caravan stop, that this team will be a much better team in the second half. I think they need to go out and get some help at C for Barnhart, too.

      • Chuck Schick

        Why would a team with the 2nd worst record in the NL give up something of long term value to fix a short term problem at catcher?

        Milwaukee isn’t going to give Lucroy away….so you’re trading someone that you have 6-7 years of cost control for a guy who will be a FA after next year. You also just drafted a catcher with the 11th pick and owe Mesoraco….who is completely untradeable…21.5 million dollars.

        I agree that Luroy helps the Reds immediately….but, so what? They lose 96 games instead of 99 and you’re giving something up to get him.

        By the time they’re ready to compete, you’re forced to pay Lucroy FA money and likely are still paying Mesoraco…..and you have Stephenson.

        Why would they possibly make a trade to improve things this year? It makes no sense.

    • The Duke

      I like the idea of Lorenzen focusing on one offspeed pitch and letting it rip in the upper 90’s in one inning stretches.

  14. sultanofswaff

    The Nationals are getting zero production from their SS tandem so far. It’s not much of a stretch to see Cozy reuniting with Dusty in DC.

    • Patrick Jeter

      Trea Turner.

      0% chance Cozart ends up in Washington.

    • Shchi Cossack

      I can see that match up happening easily and the Nats have a beavy of high upside-high risk young prospect talents to fill any position(s) desired: middle IF, 3B, OF. If Cozart continues to mash after the draft, I can see the Reds scooping up a couple of those prospects.

    • The Duke

      Trea Turner will fill that spot as soon as we’re safely past the super 2 deadline. Washington needs to save all the $ they can to pay Harper $500 million in a few years.

    • Patrick Jeter

      He’s been worth like 0.6 WAR over the last 2 weeks or something. That’s really good.

  15. IndyRedMan

    It will be great to get Disco and Lorenzen back pretty soon! With Lorenzen I see a big sturdy kid with a great fastball and I want 200 innings out of him as a starter rather than 70 but maybe the pen is where his future is? I think Homer might really flourish as a closer? Smoltz and Eckersley started for many years before becoming closers. I guess they’ll just put together as many quality arms as they can and figure it out as they go along! It will be a good problem to have!