Jon Heyman of CBS has it first:

Also, C Trent Rosecrans:

More later, as return is announced.

The Reds are receiving three prospects in return:

183 Responses

  1. rhayex

    Three team deal involving Dodgers and White Sox. This is gonna be interesting!

  2. rhayex

    Peraza, Shepler, Dixon are coming back to the Reds. That seems pretty light…

  3. WVRedlegs

    I am not McLuvin what the Reds received. The Dodgers got the best of this trade.

    • rhayex

      By far, although there are rumors that Kike Hernandez is involved as well. If the Reds get him, that balances it out.

      • Brian

        Where did you hear this, I haven’t seen this talked about anywhere.

    • citizen54

      Na, they White Sox farm system sucks. The only decent guy the Dodgers got was Montas and even he has a lot of question marks, namely his ability to throw strikes. I’d much rather have Peraza than Montas.

  4. rhayex

    The way it breaks down is:

    White Sox # 3, 5, 15 prospect -> Dodgers
    Dodgers #4, 13, unranked -> Reds
    Reds Todd Frazier -> White Sox

    • Big56dog

      This has got to be a mistake, why not take the White Sox prospects which are clearly better than what is claimed coming from the Dodgers

  5. Kyle Farmer

    I can’t help but feel that the whole Chapman fiasco really pushed the Reds to move Frazier. So, we keep the accused choker who shoots up his own garage and trade the guy has been nothing but a positive for the club and city.

    My head says it’s the right thing to do but it still feels like someone kicked me in the gut.

  6. rhayex

    So reports are that the Reds LOVED Peraza and that he was one of the two players coming back in the Chapman trade. That’s what made the three-way necessary.

    Meanwhile, everyone is saying that the return for Frazier is super light, and the Dodgers and White Sox made out like bandits.

    • lwblogger2

      Agree all around. If the Reds like Paraza that much, this front-office is clearly still stuck in the stone age.

  7. WVRedlegs

    A light hitting 2B, a light hitting OF, and a guy that looks like PacMan Jones.
    If this is all the Reds got for Frazier, it was an incredibly stupid trade.

    • jdx19

      So, hitting is the only valuable skill in baseball?

  8. JoshG

    yeah.. not loving this. not a big fan of Peraza.
    do think this makes a trade of Phillips a lot more likely now though

      • lwblogger2

        I think Schebler is the best part of the deal and he is pretty much perhaps an average MLB LF.

  9. Shchi Cossack

    Both Peraza and Schebler will occupy slots on the 40-man roster. I suspect this may be similar to what would have been the return for Chapman and with Peraza coming over, that could portend a move of Phillips to the Nats.

  10. prusergambling

    Amazing that 1 years of Chapman was going to bring in more than 2 years of Frazier.

    What a disaster this looks like for Cincinnati. Two position players that will never see the light of day and Jose Peraza? Imagine what a competent team could have received for Frazier if they let him go in July of last year. Wow.

    • Casey

      I wouldn’t be too quick to be down on Schebler.

      Back during the Dodger trade talks during the season, I mentioned his name as a possible get. LA was clogged at OF and I think he has better potential than rankings might let on.

      Plus, I went to HS with the guy, so color me excited.

    • jdx19

      Was it? What was the return on Chapman?

      I love the reactions to trades… people just start making things up.

  11. Jeremy Conley

    I feel sick to my stomach. I would have been disappointed in that return if it was for Chapman, the fact that that’s what we got for two years of Frazier, is just terrible. Frazier was one of the top 30 players in baseball last year, and he has two years of team control left, one if which is WAY below market value.

    If they were going to deal Frazier it had to be for a premium package of prospects, and this isn’t it.

    • lwblogger2

      Me too. Agree 100%. May as well have held on to him or taken what the White Sox were offering. Obviously, Reds baseball personnel are much higher on Peraza than most.

  12. VaRedsFan

    Perhaps the Dodgers flip the prospects they got from Chicago to the Reds for Chappy?

    • Big56dog

      So why not give the prospects directly to the Reds and let the Dodgers try to peddle theirs when they are ready for Chapman

  13. Nick Carrington

    Ouch. A lot will need to go right for us to look back fondly on this trade. Lots of question marks on each piece the Reds received.

    • Steve Schoenbaechler

      I have been wondering myself if the Reds are going to go for an Astro/Cub rebuild or if they are going to try to at least put a .500 ball team out on the field. I believe this proves the first one. Probably writing off 2016 if not 2017, probably going for 2018.

      • lwblogger2

        Maybe 2019. With this front-office, perhaps even never.

  14. seat101

    Uh, no need to be hatin’ just yet.

    Let’s see how they shake out the coming year.

  15. Dave

    Peraza is a career .302 hitter in the minors with around .340 OPS. Good glove and was Atlanta’s #1 prospect last year before being traded to LA. Schebler has good power and may be a chance to play LF.

    • lwblogger2

      Except Paraza’s OBP is almost entirely batting average driven. For as long as he can keep his average up, he can be a solid MLB regular. The thing is that average tends to fluctuate more than than say, a walk-rate. Therefore, it stands to reason that Peraza could end up a Juan Pierre type player. Not a bad player but not really a star either and not the kind of guy the Reds really should be targeting in my opinion.

      • Michael E

        21 years old (turned this year) and hit over .290 in AAA. I’d say that is good, if not very good, even with poor walk rate.

        I’d rather have a 6’3″ masher with speed and all-star hitting, but those aren’t available for good reason.

  16. Steve Schoenbaechler

    My judgement, not that bad. We got back a couple of prospects where some outlets rate the #4 (Peraza) and #13 (Schebler). All seem to have some versatility to them as well. Each 25 and younger. Of course, as always with prospects, it will be coming down to the future, the prospect’s future, will it pan out.

    Overall, would I take it? I would have to say yes. The question left for me, who plays 3rd now? Especially if they move BP to the Nats, that makes Suarez or Cozart to 2nd, neither for 3rd. Or, does Peraza take over 2nd, with Suarez or Cozart to 3rd? What happens if they don’t move BP? I can’t help thinking they don’t make this move without already knowing this.

    • Jeremy Conley

      Do you understand that those are not national ranks, but team ranks for prospects? If the Reds can’t do better than some other teams 4th best prospect for one of the best MLB players in the game they shouldn’t be trading.

      • rhayex

        You do realize the Dodgers top three prospects are all rated below 25, right? Peraza was ranked #24 overall. That would make him our best prospect in a loaded farm system.

      • Jeremy Conley

        Baseball America had him at #54 before 2015, MLB had him at #38 before 2015, and Baseball Prospectus had him at #92.

        He then had his worst pro season, with a .694 OPS. I don’t think he’s our top prospect now at all.

      • Michael E

        Jeremy, I would have liked a bigger catch of name prospects back, but Peraza is widely regarded as a top minor league prospect (#4 in Dodgers is #1 in 25 other systems) and has future good MLB player written all over him. Will he ever hit 20 HRs? No, but what do the Reds need more than that? A hitter that actually consistently puts the bat on the ball (ah hah, Peraza’s real value).

        Not a bad deal, but I did hope for a better secondary set of prospects.

      • Casey

        “If the [team] can’t do better than some other team[‘]s 4th best prospect for one of [in my opinion] the best MLB players in the game they shouldn’t be trading.”

    • ohiojimw

      Pending other acquisitions, Schebler in LF. Peraza 2b (assuming BP is moved), Adam Duvall 3B until they play their way out of the line up

  17. Kyle Farmer

    Jim Bowden is absolutely blasting the Reds on Twitter right now. I some ways that makes me feel a little better about the deal. 🙂

    • Westfester

      Never trust a man wearing leather pants!

    • jdx19

      Well, Jim Bowden is generally a pretty un-intelligent guy, so I don’t put a ton of weight in what he says.

      Obviously, Frazier hit a bunch of homers, so he MUST be worth everyone’s #1 and #2 prospect!

    • Michael E

      Yeah, can’t believe he has a job. I can hear any argument about the deal and see reason behind hit, but at the end of the day, Peraza is what the Reds don’t have. A hitter that consistently squares up the ball, doesn’t pop out much (keeps it down to liners and hard grounders) and runs like the wind. This is top of the order hitter we have only had ONCE the past 10 years (Choo).

      • Steve Mancuso

        Peraza is nothing like Choo as a hitter. Direct opposite, in fact.

      • Michael E

        How so? I realize the walk rate is low, but he makes up for it with constant contact, which no one on the current Reds, outside Votto, can manage.

        I concede the measily walk rate, but Peraza would be the best leadoff hitter we’ve had outside of Choo in the past 12 years should he progress reasonably well.

      • Michael E

        Are you stating his singles and doubles aren’t worth what Choo’s are? He is faster so that will make up some ground on Choo. If he learns to take a few more walks (may not) he won’t be very far off from Choo, however different he appears to you they both got on base, Choo did it better, but he also had a CAREER year that year.

      • Michael E

        I guess you, much like I, were just being overly dramatic. Clearly they’re not opposites, but Choo walks more and has more power (though a medium sized Peraza could devlope it, but I hope not at the expensive of growing fly out rate…keep in on the ground).

  18. rhayex

    Alright, so while Peraza is profiled as a utility guy, Schebler is apparently profiled as a 20-25 HR a year outfielder. I have no idea what to expect anymore.

    • Michael E

      Utility? Man, hard to label a top MI prospect as future “utility” player. He should be a full-time SS or 2B for 15 years before falling into a utility role in his late 30s. He won’t pound out 15+ HRs ever (barring roids or jet bat), but he does the stuff few on the current or recent Reds have…put the bat on the ball.

    • Michael E

      It might be because he is short, but hey, that all-star in Houston, Altuve, is really short and that doesn’t stop him from mashing or avoiding being labeled “utility”.

    • Michael E

      6′ isn’t short. I thought he was 5’9″. Not short, puts the bat on the ball, runs like the wind, does NOT hit the ball in the air (Hamilitons failing), so all looks good, save for HR power.

  19. WVRedlegs

    Peraza? The Reds love him? The Braves and Dodgers think he is no more than a utility player. Incredibly stupid front office move.

  20. rfay00

    Why would rate Peraza as the #24 overall prospect and the #2 2B prospect if his ceiling is a utility guy?

    I am looking for a serious answer and not some “cuz Jocketty sucks!!!” response.

    • rfay00

      Before someone talks down to me I will state that his last year numbers do not look like a top 25 prospect. No power, low OBP. My point is why is he highly ranked,

    • Matt

      In 2013, MLB had Billy Hamilton ranked the #16 prospect in all of baseball.

      Looking at the scouting grades they both were given, I imagine they see Peraza as similar to how they saw Hamilton then. Lots of speed, good glove. The difference is probably that Peraza isn’t quite as valuable as BH defensively, but he looks like he’ll supposedly hit for better average.

  21. Pooter

    At least we got position players instead of pitching…

    • ohiojimw

      +1000 🙂

      They actually did what they said they wanted to do. We can argue over whether they could have gotten better; but, at least they didn’t complicate things by taking a couple of arms that probably would not have measured up to the cache of starting prospects the Reds already had in hand.

      • WVRedlegs

        But the best player in the trade, other than Frazier, was the WhiteSox pitching prospect Montas. A 97-98mph fastball that touches 100. And he went to LA.

      • rhayex

        He also has serious control problems. Granted, he could still be a shut down closer even if he doesn’t figure that out, but it’s one of those things where the Reds went with the higher floor player.

        Plus, looking at what the Dodgers got, it’s not nearly as bad as I first thought. Dodgers fans *hate* this trade.

      • Michael E

        The best player in the trade (outside of Frazier) was clearly Peraza. If you don’t like him because he is short, fine, but he was higher rated for the past couple of years for REAL reasons.

        I am disappointed by the overall package, but Peraza at least has serious upside.

  22. Westfester

    Probably the best the reds could do considering the Chapman Fiasco. That has tainted the Reds front office with the other teams.

  23. spro

    Shows the Reds don’t think they’ll be competitive until 2018. That’s what most of us here thought, but this shows it for sure.

    • Yippee

      2018? It’s gonna be a LONG time before Reds are competitive again…so many things have go right for them to compete, let alone overtake, any of the CHI, STL, or PIT clubs….better get 2020 vision…

  24. Matt

    From the MLB prospects list on Peraza:

    “Peraza began his career at shortstop, but had moved to second in the Braves organization because of Andrelton Simmons, even mixing in some outfield in 2015. He’s now rid of that roadblock, but top Dodgers prospect Corey Seager now stands in the way of any return to the left side of second base”

    With how brutal Suarez was in the field this year, I’m pondering… if Cozart recovers well and is looking decent enough to move at the deadline, would Peraza maybe be a good choice to move back to SS? With good fielding, speed, and hit tool, his lack of power wouldn’t look so bad at short.

    • Matt

      I’m imagining, long-term, maybe the following infield:

      Votto 1B
      Blandino 2B
      Peraza SS
      Suarez 3B

  25. ManuelT

    First everyone is hot and bothered that our team hasn’t made a move and/or they’re asking for too much. Be careful what you wish for. I was in the camp that said the Reds should take as long as they want until they receive a worthwhile offer.

    • Jeremy Conley

      I agree, they didn’t have to trade anyone but Chapman this offseason, there was no need to rush on a Frazier trade.

    • Peter Pond

      In fact I wouldn´t trade Frazier at all. If you are paying so much money for a guy like Votto and Bailey you don´t rebuild completely unless you move those contracts. That´s why the retooling approach by WJ was absolutely correct. But of course, the know-it-all bunch put so much pressure that the man said ‘you know what? I’ve got my rings, I’ve got lots of money and prestige, it’s golf time while collecting my “advisors check”. Can’t blame him.

      • ManuelT

        I agree completely concerning Votto and Bailey.

  26. Jeremy Conley

    So much for all that talk about the Reds front office overvaluing their players. I wonder if that was just chatter from other teams to put pressure on the Reds and it worked.

    • Michael_Øk

      Well that “chatter” seemed to have found itself in the ears of many of our own fans, some are even on this very blog…

  27. rlmartindale4

    What is wrong with some of you folks? You act like there was a better deal out there and the Reds didn’t take it! It makes no sense to hold on to Frazier.. he only has 2 years left on his deal & the Reds won’t be competing again until right around that time or a year later.. Also, he’ll be 30 at the end of his current contract and entering his decline phase. We already got the best years of Todd Frazier!!!

    According to this article these prospects seem fair:

    Peraza, 21, this year hit .293 with 33 stolen bases in 118 appearances for the Class AAA affiliates of the Braves and Dodgers and in his Major League debut played in 7 games for Los Angeles. In 461 career minor league games, he has hit .302 with an on-base percentage of .342 while stealing 210 bases in 259 attempts (81%). Primarily a middle infielder, last season Peraza made 18 appearances in CF, including 1 game at that position for the Dodgers.

    Heading into the upcoming season, Peraza had been rated by Baseball America the fourth-best prospect in the Dodgers’ organization. In 2015, he was rated the top prospect in the Braves’ system and by mid-season was rated the 26th-best prospect in all of baseball before he was traded to Los Angeles in July.

    Schebler, 25, spent most of last season with the Dodgers’ affiliate in Oklahoma City, his first action at Class AAA, and in 121 appearances produced 13 HR, 50 RBI and 15 stolen bases. He also made his Major League debut with 3 homers and 4 RBI in just 19 games for Los Angeles. Schebler entered the 2015 season rated LA’s eighth-best prospect.

    In each of the 2013 and 2014 seasons Schebler was an Organizational All-Star and a post-season league All-Star, and in 2014 he was named to the prestigious Arizona Fall League’s All-Prospects team. In 2013, he was the Dodgers’ Minor League Player of the Year after hitting .296 with 27 HR, 96 RBI and 16 stolen bases in 125 games and leading the California League extra-base hits (69) and total bases (277).

    I mean.. its only 2 years of control over a player entering there decline phase.. what were you expecting?

    • Jeremy Conley

      The point is that Frazier was and is one of the best players if MLB right now. If the Reds had aimed for 2017 to compete, they could have kept him, and if it didn’t work out they could have traded him at the deadline and gotten not much less than what they got.

      Neither of the players that the Reds got back profiles as a future all-star, in fact, there’s some question if they can be MLB starters rather than utility players. When you trade an MLB all-star and possible MVP candidate, with two years left (you say that as if it’s not much, but it’s a lot for a traded player), you better get at least one guy that profiles as a star player. Otherwise you should just keep him and get the first round draft pick.

      • rlmartindale4

        I guess from a draft pick standpoint you can make an argument. Didn’t consider that. I guess i just didn’t see any point in hanging on to a player like Frazier when you lost 98 games last year & aren’t expected to compete until after said player’s contract expires.. I mean, A-Rod playing for the Bad News Bears is still A-Rod playing for the Bad News Bears.. I dunno, maybe I don’t have the baseball mind to grasp why this “wasn’t a good deal.”

      • Jeremy Conley

        If the Reds only had him for one year, then sure, they would have had to deal him. But there’s a chance that the Reds could have been good in 2017, and Frazier could have helped them be good then. That’s why I don’t see that there was a rush to trade him now.

      • rlmartindale4

        Good points Jeremy, thanks for the reply. I guess I figured that if the Reds were looking at Frazier as a long-term plan for 3B they would have negotiated a longer contract when they signed him for 2 years. By moving him early, it gives any major-league ready prospects time to mature with the rest of the young pups over the rebuilding phase. I’ll admit to not being as informed as some of the other folks here tho & getting a compensation pick would have been nice.

      • Aaron Bradley

        30 is far from ancient… he could be productive till the age of 36. The problem I have is they sold him when his stock is low… if they time this better they get a much better return, either earlier or later. He was a big power/RBI bat in the middle of an otherwise sad lineup. *TOS is gonna reach new lows in 2016. I know we’ve written off next year but losing 110 games is a possibility.

      • PDunc

        According to Fangraphs, Frazier had the 30th highest WAR in MLB in 2015 and the 31st highest over the last 3 seasons. He is a good player, but “possible MVP candidate” seems like a bit of a stretch.

        Many comments on here seem to be pretty down on the prospects we received back along with your statement above of “not profiling as a future all-star.”
        The Reds were looking for near-MLB-ready top, non-pitcher, prospects. Peraza is a top-25 prospect, middle infielder who played last year at AAA with a cup of coffee in the majors. I don’t know if he is a future all star or not, but it sounds like the Reds got exactly the type of player they were looking for.

      • Jeremy Conley

        He was second in WAR in the NL at the All-star break. HR Derby has messed with a lot of players over the years. He had a bad second half. Don’t be surprised if that doesn’t happen this year and the Reds look bad for trading with his stock lowered.

      • Steve Schoenbaechler

        Frazier wasn’t in the top 30 in WAR, he was the 30th in WAR. MVP candidate? Not by a long shot. He needs a much better bat for that. It’s sounds like you are overvaluing a player, Jeremy.

      • Jeremy Conley

        Peraza has taken less than 100 walks in more than 2000 PAs in the minors with no power. That is not an all star.

      • Jeremy Conley

        To Steve, read replay above. 2nd in NL in WAR at allstar break. HR Derby has affected many players. Reds traded based on his second half not his first.

      • Steve Schoenbaechler

        To Jeremy,

        So what. So Todd had a hot bat the first half of the season. Ludwick had one also when he won the OF job from Heisey. Look what that did for us. Finishing 30th for the season would tell you how poor his second half was. It’s poor judgement to judge a player’s entire value based on one half season.

        I never said Peraza would be an AS. All of that is going to come down to how he develops. But, we don’t need HR hitters right now. So, few care about power. We need OBP people, which means not only walks. So far, a career OBP in the minors of 342, we will see if he can develop into a major league hitter (projected to be 322 OBP as of now next season).

      • Steve Schoenbaechler

        Jeremy, you seem to be referring a lot to Todd being one of the best players in MLB right now. While I don’t deny that, just how high would you be referring to? Top 10? Nope. Top 20? I wouldn’t even give that. As well as, for many, it could simply be a matter of perspective.

        Martindale had it right. That’s how you construct a team. It’s not just who you keep but when, how long. We aren’t going to be competitive until after Frazier’s current contract is up, unless the Reds were going to not rebuild but reload, getting FA’s and trading what few prospects we have for players to win now.

        As with any trade for prospects, I believe the value for us is going to be how these players pan out, their future. As of now, I do believe the Dodgers got the best of the trade.

        Or, compare to the Latos trade we made to get him, giving up 3 prospects and one mlb-ready starter. I believe Todd is better than Latos was at that time. But, Latos also had a lot of years of organization control left. So, I would have to go about equivalent. But, then, with the development of those prospects, I would like to have them back right now.

        One trade I still don’t understand right now is Marshall. Why did we ever go after him? Even before he was injured, I was wondering why. I mean, I can understand why, to help shore up a bullpen. What I don’t understand is we had a decent bullpen at the time, with a lefty in there. We didn’t need him.

      • Jeremy Conley

        To me, if you’re in the top 30, that means you could be the best player on a major league team, since there are 30 teams. That seems pretty dang good to me.

        I also think there is evidence that shows that the HR Derby messes with players. As of the midway point last year Todd had put up 3.9 WAR which was good for 7th in MLB, and 2nd in the NL. That’s why I consider him a possible MVP candidate.

      • Steve Schoenbaechler

        30th in WAR is no MVP candidate, Jeremy. That’s what you said.

      • greenmtred

        Don’t take this as a prediction, but Votto didn’t really profile as an all-star, never mind one of the best hitters in baseball, did he?

      • Jeremy Conley

        Yes he did. He was a second round pick with a great batting eye and average power. That would have been an all-star level player. That his power developed turned him into an MVP.

      • Steve Schoenbaechler

        Jeremy, a second round pick profile out to be an All Star? Seriously?

    • spro

      2016 IF, Suarez, Cozart, Peraza, Votto

      • Kyle Farmer

        Is Cozart going to be ready by Opening Day?

      • Kevin

        Duvall? He was an infielder for the University of Louisville and was 1B/3B in the Giants orginization.

  28. VaRedsFan

    I would rather it had been for Jay Bruce. Tough times ahead for the Reds

    • Kyle Farmer

      Good call there. This would have been a perfectly acceptable return for Bruce.

  29. Kyle Farmer

    Rosenthal and Olney joining Bowden on Twitter skewering the Reds on this trade. Can’t remember seeing a return so universally panned by the insiders.

    • eric nyc

      I might be able to live with it except Frazier was by far our most valuable trading chip left. Who knows if Chapman is even tradable anymore and Bruce won’t be worth a fraction of what Frazier was. BP is at the end of his career ad still has a bulky contract around his neck. Votto has a full no trade clause and has said he would use it no matter what. Frazier was our last real shot at getting a solid return.

      • greenmtred

        Chapman will be tradable as soon as mlb decides how to discipline him. Most teams seem to value ability over flawless self-control.

  30. Peter Pond

    I would love to see who had the final word on this horrible trade. My gut feeling tells me that the numbers guys are taking over and WJ is just letting it go and heading south for a nice vacation in sunny Florida while taking his nice check with him.

    My worst nightmare coming to reality: a bunch of nerds playing fantasy baseball is taking over the Reds front office. You asked for it, there you have it.

    • eric nyc

      Wait…So we SHOULDN’T be looking at stats when making trades? If anything this trade is a DISASTER on the advanced metric scale. This is as old school as it gets. We gave up a guy worth 9 WAY over the last 2 years for a longshot prospect, a bench outfielder, and a replacement level 2B with some upside. No way anyone but Jocketty and his old school metrics were at the helm of this dumpster fire.

      • Peter Pond

        No, my friend. The old school got us Desclafani for a broken down Latos, Suarez for 15 minutes of Simon, a good Latos for 4 prospects non in SD anymore, 3 very good pitching prospects for 3 months of Cueto. You know, expertise and experience.

      • eric nyc

        If you’d prefer Walt Jocketty rebuilding this team I don’t know exactly what to tell you. I still don’t understand how you think THIS trade was some kind of triumph of advanced metrics. By the stats this trade is terrible. I guess this is one of those rare cases when the old school can agree with the new school. Bad trade on all fronts.

      • citizen54

        Sickels had Peraza rated as a B+ so I think he projects a lot better than as a replacement level player. And don’t forget the players we received back in the trade should be roughly equal to Frazier’s surplus value, not his total value.

        Steamer has Frazier at 3.2 WAR for 2016 so let’s assume he declines to 3.0 in 2017. That’s a total of 6.2 WAR. At $8 MMl/WAR he is worth about $50MM His salary is $7.5 MM in 2016 and he is arb eligible in 2017 so lets say $10MM, so around $17.5MM in total salary. So surplus value is around $33MM which translates to around 4 WAR, assuming $8 MM/WAR is correct. So basically, if Peraza can be a replacement (1 WAR) player for 4 years the deal would have been worth it.

        It wasn’t a great deal but by no means was it a dumpster fire if you go by advanced metrics.

      • eric nyc

        That’s some very solid analysis. Thanks. However, in the position the Reds are in they can’t simply be looking to replace apples for apples in the WAR/$ department. Even if your analysis is correct it looks like we might have just squeaked by with something like an equitable trade in this one. how does that help us catch up with the Cubs?

      • citizen54

        It helps us in that by not having to pay for WAR from players on rookie contracts we have money available to spend on free agents where needed. Basically, if we are getting like 4 WAR of production for free we can now theoritically afford to pay for a 6 WAR player on the free agent market, which is what you see the Cubs doing (Lester). But yah we aren’t going to catch the Cubs overnight.

      • greenmtred

        Everybody is commenting in the heat of the moment, I realize. Evaluating the trade cannot be reasonably done until the guys we got have played (or not) for awhile. Metrics are clearly useful tools in many respects, but they can’t always predict the future.

    • Jeremy Conley

      If the “numbers” guys took over you’d think they would have traded for guys with better numbers.

      • Peter Pond

        No, ipads or Pc’s can’t throw or hit.

      • eric nyc

        Fine, let me put that more delicately: I question the relevance of your comment. I find it to be disagreeable to my understanding of the game of baseball. Perhaps some further research might help to better inform your opinion.


      • lwblogger2

        No they can’t but the analytics-inclined folks also don’t like this trade. It makes you wonder then if analytics were a considerable part of the evaluation process. I’m thinking they weren’t, otherwise you wouldn’t be building this trade around a prospect with “plus speed” and a “good ‘hit’ tool” with poor plate-discipline. Analysts who are primarily analitically inclined tend to HATE that kind of player.

      • lwblogger2

        You’d make a better case if the trade works out and the guy ends up being a very good MLB player, because the more ‘tools’ inclined baseball people tend to like this kind of guy and the more ‘analytics’ inclined baseball people tend to hate this kind of guy or are at most sort of iffy on this kind of guy.

    • Nick Carrington

      This is the exact opposite of what a trade based on analytics would look like. Analytical people value power, the ability to get on base, and defense. Peraza has little to no power and never walks. Schebler has some power potential but not elite power and not a great (nor terrible) defender. Analytics guys are killing the Reds right now.

  31. rhayex

    Per Heyman, the Nats-Reds talks are ramping up after the trade for Peraza.

    • eric nyc

      It’s just going to be a salary dump. No one’s giving us anything for BP and his huge contract.

      • rhayex

        People are way too focused on what a win was worth in 2010 (when the extension was signed), and are ignoring the inflation that has happened since. If we were going by 2010 dollars, then yes, Phillips would not quite be worth his contract (although it would be close). With inflation, he’s gathered a positive value and can actually bring something back in a trade.

        People have been saying he’s being overpaid for the longest time, until it’s just assumed he is. It’s the same with Votto, where he was *way* more valuable than his contract last year.

      • eric nyc

        Votto has proven he’s worth the money and will continue to be for a while. I’d say he really might only have 1 or 2 bad years at the end of this contract with the inflation you’re talking about. BP’s contract certainly doesn’t look as bad now as it did when he signed it, but he’s also on the last leg of his career and any team trading for him is doing it pretty much for the web gems. I love watching BP play defense, but no one is going to give up any particularly good prospects for him at this point.

      • lwblogger2

        I’d argue the Frazier trade appears to be first and foremost a salary dump. Pathetic.

      • TR

        If it’s a salary dump for BP, it will free up a lot of money.

  32. eric nyc

    We got hosed. Peraza is going to have to become an All Star 2B for this to even come close to being a solid deal. Schleber is a bench player at best. Frazier should have been dealt before ASG last year. I wonder if there’s a way to keep tabs on exactly how much having that stupid game in Cincy last year screwed this club. The only reason we didn’t deal Frazier, Cueto, and Chapman in June of last year was so we didn’t look like we were in fire sale mode for our big closeup. Frazier’s value was never going to be higher and his slow 2nd half is likely why this is all we could get for him.

    I just can not for the life of me understand why Castellini is letting Walt hang around for one more year. This is probably the most important offseason this franchise has had in 15 years. You’ve just named the GM of the future. Why handcuff him to Grandpa Jocketty who will not have to be held accountable for ANY of the many moves he is going to make this year? If you trust Williams enough to lead this team for the next decade then LET HIM DO HIS JOB RIGHT NOW. Does ANYONE here trust Jocketty to do the right thing in this spot?

    • Peter Pond

      You keep saying that, but the sad truth is that the GM of the Future surely has his hands and his keyboard all over this. Walt has never been fleeced in such a ridiculous way before.

      • eric nyc

        It was clearly stated that Walt had final authority on all transactions as Head of Baseball Operations. It is still Walt’s team. I really don’t see this crazy new school perspective that you seem to have honed in on. This is just a flat out bad trade.

      • eric nyc

        Also, that is the very first time I have ever said that.

    • Michael E

      Eric, I doubt Walt was holding back between the ASG and the deadline, but instead Castellini could conjure up the fortitude to tell his customers he was trading some beloved players for prospects.

      Maybe it was a combination, but we all know how fixated Castellini can get on players and NOT upsetting paying fans. I am upset we didn’t have a strong rebuild, but I am not a paying fan, so Bob doesn’t care what I think.

  33. Farney

    For perspective, this would be like the reds trading Tyler Stephenson (#4 prospect, this years 1st round draft pick) + Jonathan Crawford (#13 prospect, got him in the Simon deal) + a non-ranked throw in for 2 cheap years of the Toddfather. I’d rather have that pitcher the Sox sent than Peraza.

    • rhayex

      Not really. It’s more like if we traded Winker + Ervin + Lavalley.

      • Farney

        Was going more on the ranking than taking positions into account– winker is #1, ervin #11

      • rhayex

        Yeah, if you look at it from a perspective of “top team prospects”. But looking at it from a league wide perspective, the Dodgers top FOUR prospects at the time (Peraza was #4) were all ranked more highly than the Reds #1 prospect, Winker. The Dodgers farm system is insanely good.

  34. Ken Goldsberry

    I like it. The Reds can now move Bruce and have enough OF prospects to totally retool a very bad OF. BP can be moved as well. I’m more of a fan of playing Suarez at 2B rather than 3B. You know the Reds are going to give Cozart a chance to play to see if he can hit, if he can and his injury necessitates a position change, why not 3B? He certainly has the arm for it. We’d lose a bit of power at that position, but as a short term fix until he can be traded or prove that he cannot hit, I see it as low risk in the grand scheme of things. The Reds are not going to fill all of their roster gaps this season, next year will be an opprotunity to find another 3B either internally or via trade as well.

    • Aaron Bradley

      “a bit of power”? Come on, when Frazier is right he has the most pure power in the league.

      • eric nyc

        If we had traded Frazier in June when he was a legit MVP candidate we could have cleaned up.

      • greenmtred

        It’s not as though Frazier’s second half swoon was entirely out of character for him. He has always been a streaky hitter who puts up good power numbers and fails to set the world on fire with has average or obp. I doubt that other front offices were particularly fooled by his first half. Yes, he’s a good player, but it bears recalling that he did not project as a potential all-star. More of a useful utility guy who was a bit long in the tooth to be making his major league debut. We don’t know how good the new guys will be, anymore than we knew how good Frazier or Votto would be. Relax. Have a drink. Christmas is coming.

  35. PDunc

    According to Peraza is the #24 overall prospect. According to ESPN’s Keith Law he was #19 overall on his May top-50 list (but not on his July top-50 list? Not sure why.)

    So the Reds got back 6 years of control of an MLB-ready, top-25 prospect, middle infielder and 6 years of control of a MLB-ready outfielder. That, to me, doesn’t seem like a terrible return for Frazier.

      • eric nyc

        Scott “Chris Heisey” Schleper,

      • Casey

        If you’re going to nay-say, at least spell his name correctly.

      • lwblogger2

        I think he has better plate discipline and contact than Heisey. He isn’t the defender that Heisey is though. I could see him as a starting LF in the MLB but not a great one. I honestly think he’ll hit better than Heisey in the Majors.

      • PDunc

        I don’t know how good Schebler is going to be, but he played most of last year at AAA with a September call-up to the Dodgers. He might be terrible in the majors, or he might turn into a good starting outfielder. I don’t know but he is ready to see what he can do in the majors.

  36. james garrett

    I like the data provided by RLMARTINDALE4 because to me it speaks volumes as to what we get for Frazier.Don’t forget we play in the best division in baseball and we lost 98 games his past year and we will lose this year.Losing is losing to me so I say good trade.We just got 3 players for one,got younger and cheaper with some upside and a plan is starting to unfold.Can’t wait to see what we get for Phillips.

  37. Frogger

    Wow, this is what I was afraid of. Stupid trade. Seems like they forced a trade here to get one done. Stupid….None of these players appear to be good contributions for the Reds. 2nd basemen with no power and doesn’t walk. This in addition to already having Suarez, Cozart, and Blandino. Now have a need at third too. I am assume BP is gone. If not this is even more stupid.

    • eric nyc

      I assume Suarez would be moved to 3B at least for the short term. I still think Cozart’s couple of good months before the injury were an anomaly and I expect him to go back to being a complete liability at the plate.

  38. rhayex

    Jocketty just announced Eugenio Suarez is the starter at 3B for this year.

  39. Chuck Schick

    Perhaps all 3 will be great…maybe they’ll all be stiffs. No one has any clue.

    Todd Frazier was ranked as the Reds #9 prospect in 2011.

    Corey Patterson was once the #2 prospect in baseball. JD Drew was once #1 with Rick Ankiel a close second.

    Jay Bruce was #2 and Votto #49 in 2007.Steve Gibralter was ranked above Aaron Boone. Derek Jeter was below Alan Benes.

    • i71_Exile

      YES. Preach it.

      Frazier developed late. He was pretty “eh” in the minors. Just to be at AAA at age 21 is significant in itself.

    • ohiojimw

      For once i can agree with you with little to no reservation. From the contemporary point of view, most folks don’t realize Frazier appeared to be have been passed over in his final AAA season. He was literally bouncing around the diamond at every position except SS, C, and CF just to get PT and ABs. Juan Francisco was the “3B of the future at that point” with Frazier filling in there.

  40. eric nyc

    Looking at the Cubs I almost wonder if it’s even worth getting worked up about trades. If we don’t hit on a superstar in the draft in the next few years we won’t be winning in this division for the better part of a decade.

  41. Redgoggles

    For a conservative organization, we are taking on some serious risk by replacing known players with “potential”. It’s exciting to see the transition begin, but very risky nonetheless.

  42. Chuck Schick

    More evidence of the scientific validity of prospect rankings.

    Rocco Bardelli #2 2003

    Edwin Jackson #4 2004

    Ian Stewart #4 2005

    Brandon Wood #3 2006

    • Steve Mancuso

      Well, if four were off, then they must all be worthless.

      • Steve Mancuso

        “prospect ratings are rock solid” – said no one, ever.

      • Chuck Schick

        4 examples of dozens…perhaps hundreds of possibilities.

        A trade occurred today and 2-3 years from now we’ll know if it was good or bad. That is all anyone knows.

        The hysterical, knee jerk reaction is par for the course. Someday we can make a factual assessment of this trade…that is a long time away. Perhaps the Reds were fleeced, perhaps not. No one knows anything

      • Steve Mancuso

        So is your position that it doesn’t matter which prospects the Reds got, since their minor league statistics don’t mean anything? Would you be saying the same thing if the Reds got three prospects ranked below #50 in the Dodgers system?

        Can we just agree that minor league statistics are a decent starting point, but players can rise or fall farther than their minor league numbers?

      • TR

        Yes indeed. Time will tell. That’s why we all look forward to ST and opening day.

      • Chuck Schick

        Certainly who they received back matters and statistics and rankings are by no means immaterial….but, ultimately the projection of future performance…particularly for minor leaguers…is rather inexact.

        Virtually all data has value…rankings have value….but as we sit here today, we have no idea if this was a great trade or an egregious mistake.

      • greenmtred

        No, he didn’t. He just pointed out that hysterical reactions shouldn’t be based upon them. We’re going to have to wait to see how this sugars off.

  43. Steve Schoenbaechler

    I will say, this trade probably shows how the Reds are going, whether rebuild via Astros/Cubs or reload via FA’s and trading what few prospects we have. We won’t be competitive till 2017 at minimum. I just hope it’s fun to see these players develop.

    • lwblogger2

      If the Reds FO thought we’d be competitive in 2017, they wouldn’t have moved Frazier. This tells me they are thinking at least 2018. I would imagine that Bruce and BP would be moved for nearly nothing aside from salary relief at this point because they are looking at 2018 or later and neither is on the team then.

      • Steve Schoenbaechler

        Agreed. But, not only doing this firesale, I hope they “get on the Krivsky and Obrien bandwagon” and work on the scouting and development of the minor league system. I mean, yeah, we can get all the prospects we can right now. But, then, what after that?

  44. sezwhom

    Pointless to say whether this a good trade or not. Seems to me, more deals are pending. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Bruce, Chapman and BP go. Reds aren’t going anywhere next year so don’t worry about it. Building for the “distant” future. :o)

    • Steve Schoenbaechler

      Exactly. Especially when this involves prospects. No one can ever say how they will pan out. Shoot, Bruce won the MVP award of all the minor leagues the year before he was called up, I believe. Did any of that carry over? It doesn’t seem like it.

  45. IndyRedMan

    35 HR hitters don’t grow on trees….not even in GABP? Plus you could fix Frazier from pressing and hacking at pitches a foot out of the zone. On the other hand….there is no fixing the holes in Bruce’s swing and he was actually on a mini heater before the deadline and they couldn’t move him? If they don’t sign Dexter Fowler then I’m done til 2018.

    • Steve Schoenbaechler

      Two things, Indy:

      #1, we have enough power hitters with Votto, Bruce, and Devin. We need OBP people. I have no problem letting a HR hitter go. I am sorry it was Todd, who was probably the face of our team. But, that is what baseball and professional sports is these day.

  46. Pat Houseworth

    Bullet Bob and The Deads Front Office have once again spit in the face of the Fans…this organization since blowing that 2-0 over the Giants has gone in the crapper…Big Time. The empty seats at GAB in 2016 will be something to behold. 🙁

    • lwblogger2

      If that’s how you feel than that’s how you get your message across. Fans can only speak with their dollars really. If you feel there should be empty seats and enough people agree, then it could make a difference. Of course it didn’t for 10 years.

  47. IndyRedMan

    Votto will get 200 walks and 40 bombs when we’re down 7-1 in the 8th and they no longer need to walk him. So there’s that

      • Joe McManus

        Can we give him $4 million more a year to be our hitting coach?

  48. WVRedlegs

    After this trade, it feels like in Christmas Vacation when Cousin Eddie shows up at the door.
    I can see Walt as Cousin Eddie in the scene when the crapper was full, same music playing in the background.