Mark Sheldon, beat writer for MLB.com just dropped this bombshell on Twitter:

That’s what I’m hearing, too, at least the first part.

What that means, who knows? The Dodger position players aren’t a great fit for the Reds. Chapman as a second closer for the Dodgers doesn’t really make perfect sense, either. Maybe the Reds are talking to a different team. Maybe it’s a three-way deal.

Wise advice: While it’s fun to run with the media reports, don’t believe what you read on the internet until you hear it directly from a team involved.

Buckle up.

Jayson Stark (ESPN) implies that the Dodgers may not agree the deal isn’t done.

 

92 Responses

  1. rhayex

    Reeeeeally hoping this is a Royals-Cueto situation happening again. WORK YOUR MAGIC JOCKETTY/WILLIAMS.

    • gaffer

      We got Reed added then. BUT you don’t want Dodgers backing out.

    • Michael_Øk

      Thank God they haven’t finalized anything yet, I feel like the Dodgers would have practically been stealing from us otherwise. Like I said on my previous post, say what you want about Jocketty; but he has been known to pull a rabbit out of his hat… from time to time.

  2. greenmtred

    MLB network was reporting, a few hours ago, that the Dodgers had acquired Chapman.

    • Redsfan48

      MLB Network also reported the Mets acquiring Carlos Gomez for Wilmer Flores and prospects.

  3. Redsfan48

    I’d be ok with this. Without one of either Urias, De Leon, or Seager, I don’t know if i would be comfortable trading Chapman to the Dodgers. Other teams have more to offer. Personally, I’d do whatever I could, including involving more players, to get Seager or Urias.

  4. ncmountie1

    That is GOOD news IMO. Wasn’t thrilled with thought of another starting pitcher prospect.

    • TR

      Agreed. The Reds need prospects and/or proven major leaguers with offensive and OBP ability.

      • jdx19

        One year of Chapman plus a QO isn’t worth “proven major leaguers with offensive and OBP ability.” And as far as prospects go, “proven” likely means AAA. He’s also not worth a AAA player with proven offensive ability (e.g – Corey Seager).

      • Frogger

        I don’t know JD. Reliever stock is skyrocketing. Did you see what Madsen just got in FA. Winning teams are looking to build pitching from the back of the bullpen forward right now. That makes Aroldis a unique foundational piece. Royals overpaid for Cueto? They won a series. There is no overpay in that scenario. I would trade every prospect in the Reds organization right now to just play in next years WS with a chance for the ring.

      • citizen54

        Seriously, no way the Dodgers give up Seager for one year of Chapman. They aren’t the Padres. Fangraphs did a good write up on what we can expect in return, basically at best, a top 10-15 guy.

      • jdx19

        Frogger – it is true that reliever stock is going up, but you have to look at transactions in what I’ll call a “net total value” framework. Signing a free agent (like Madsen) is easy to calculate because on one side of the equation, you have the player and his projected stats, and on the other side you have his salary.

        In a trade involving a highly-touted, MLB ready prospect (Seager), you have to weigh the likelihood of all his future outcomes against the much easier to guess outcome of one year of Aroldis Chapman (2-3 WAR) plus the average value of all future outcomes of a theoretical end-1st rounder that will be selected with the compensation pick Chapman will return to LA if he isn’t re-signed.

        So, with that in mind, the odds that Seager produces more value than Chapman over this season is probably 50/50 if Seager is a starter all year playing an infield position. (He could basically get more WAR than Chapman is he plays decent defense and is a league-average hitter) Then, the odds that you get another prospect with the compensation pick that could somewhat match Seager to account for the extra years you gave up of Seager that you now don’t have Chapman in is pretty low. This is why LA would likely have no interest at all in shipping Seager for Chapman.

      • Frogger

        I missed something here. I wasnt referring to #1 prospect. Just urging caution on settling.

  5. lwblogger2

    Yeah, front-offices from rival clubs note this stuff and if the Dodgers are really upset about this, it could get really, really interesting for the Reds to be trusted to be ‘honest in trade negotiations’. Man I would LOVE to know what all is going on.

    • vegastypo

      And I can’t imagine a scenario when Williams wants to come out of the chute looking like a GM who goes back on an agreed-to deal. So yes, it would seem that something must be up.

  6. CP

    On the plus side, it’s nice seeing Sheldon, the local guy, getting the scoop on the national sportswriters. I hated how Fay always seemed to be scooped by teams using the national media as leverage.

  7. vegastypo

    I’m reminded that when the Dodgers made trades last winter, they involved multiple teams, as in getting Heaney from the Marlins and sending him to the Angels. … And the Dodgers traded Kemp to the Padres, then used one of the return pieces to get Rollins from the Phils.

    Maybe the Reds are doing likewise. Heck, maybe the Dodgers have a chain reaction thing going on.

  8. WVRedlegs

    Rosenthal said the Astros are the monkey wrench in all this. Just as I suspected, they offered up big AJ Reed, a UK grad. Made the Reds stop in their tracks.

      • WVRedlegs

        They will make him a LF.
        Remember, many scouts say that the biggest minor league hitting leap is from AAA to the Big Leagues. The second is from A+ to AA and Reed made it seamlessly. Winker took time to adjust. Power, avg., and OBP.

      • jdx19

        Re: Winker – Just like with any sample size concern, doing poorly in your first 200 PAs at a new level really doesn’t mean anything at all. Winker did well in his first (and only, hopefully) season at AA. I would say Winker took no time to adjust.

      • WVRedlegs

        AJ Reed in his first 237 PA’s at AA: 53 G, .332/.405/.571 38 R, 46 RBI. That is called not needing time to adjust. Winker was at about .225/.330/.385. He needed an adjustment period and a period to heal a wrist injury. Reed is better than Winker in every phase of the game. And Winker is a very good player.

    • RFM

      I’ve only seen a FAKE Ken Rosenthal account say that on Twitter. @Ken_Rosenthal has said no such thing about the Astros and AJ Reed. Careful of Twitter sources…

      • WVRedlegs

        You are right. I usually look for the underscore in Rosenthal’s name to make sure it his twitter. I missed it. I stand corrected, thanks. Dang that Fake Rosenthal.
        Remember the dude last year at this time who was tweeting all kinds of stuff saying he was a Reds insider.

      • Brian

        rosenthal was just on MLB network radio saying he has heard nothing to say the deal is not done and is stnading by his earlier report regardless of sheldon etc..

    • wdwrolen2713

      That would be an excellent trade for the Reds, especially if they got another prospect as well. I am biased as UK fan, but Reed can flat out hit.

      • wdwrolen2713

        But probably too good to be true. 🙁

  9. Alex

    Trading Chapman would be the worst trade the Reds have made since Frank Robinson. While Chapman is the best closer in the business, the Reds are desperate for starting pitching and Chapman could be their #1 next year and if they’re out of it by the break, which they will be, they’ll get just as much if not more then then now. Sounds like the Dodgers have told the Reds their best prospects are off the table so how does the deal make sense? Were I going to trade Chapman, I make the recipient take Brandon Phillips. Eugenio Suarez can man second base easy.

      • ncmountie1

        Double huh Alex? What are you talking about? Lose Chapman after the season for NOTHING??

    • Chuck Schick

      So you’re saying a team will offer more for 3 months of Chapman than an entire season of Chapman?

    • Bryan E

      Is this from 2011? Chappy will not be a starter here or anywhere else. Ever.

  10. lwblogger2

    Wow, um, this whole Chapman trade has turned into a bit of a mess. Almost the mess that the Wilmer Flores non-trade was.

  11. Jeremy Conley

    I hope that this isn’t a rookie mistake by our new GM.

    But it’s impossible to say whether it’s a good thing or a bad thing without knowing the prospects that the Dodgers thought they were dealing in the first place.

    I agree with Steve’s overall assessment though, and I could see a third team being needed either a) to get different prospects to the Reds that are a better fit for our rebuild, or b) to send Chapman to a team that actually needs a closer.

    That said, I think the Dodger’s GM is smart enough to know that being a “closer” is just about the worst use of Chapman, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they do really want him.

    • Brian

      i would imagine jocketty its still approving and giving the final say on everything. I wouldn’t put this on williams even if it looks that way since he has the title now.

      • Jeremy Conley

        Right, but it seems like somehow the Dodgers ended up with a different impression than the Reds had, and that could have come through some communication from Williams, even if Jocketty is giving final say.

        In fact, that Jocketty is making the final decision could be exactly the problem, if Williams basically told the Dodgers the deal was good and then Jocketty said the return wasn’t enough.

  12. Brian

    just imagine if you are chapman and how he must feel if he is hearing all of this. if reds are denying then they aren’t telling him much of anything yet untile they feel its done.

  13. kmartin

    “The reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated.” — A. Chapman

    • gaffer

      He is probably happy to leave, and go to a more Hispanic city.

      • lwblogger2

        Perhaps more importantly, a team with playoff and perhaps even World Series expectations, which alas the Reds do not have going into 2016.

      • TR

        Not necessarily. Tony Perez, a Cuban native, loved and still loves Cincinnati. And Cincy in Tony’s day was a much less Hispanic influenced city than it is today.

      • Chuck Schick

        Cubans represent less than 1% of the population of greater Los Angeles. Hispanics are no more monolithic than caucasians. Indian Hill and Dayton, KY are both filled with white people, but there’s not much in common.

      • lwblogger2

        Right. And Cubans have a very unique culture.

        Your Indian Hill vs Dayton, KY analogy is a very good one. Heck, just in my family there are diverse people who have very little in common and we only live a few miles apart.

  14. rhayex

    I own wv an apology. The Marlins ARE asking for 5-6 MLB ready players for Fernandez. I hope he is right about Seager to Reds as well.

  15. seat101

    There’s always the chance that the Dodgers are saying that it was a done deal just to put pressure on the Reds management.

    Baseball management deals with agents all the time. I’m sure they have picked up some of their tricks.

    • ohiojimw

      Has anyone else ever wondered before at what point a trade is officially done (except for physicals and league approval) and if there is some exchange of documentation that indicates the same? I know i have…..

  16. seat101

    Has anyone else noticed that the agent in Moneyball Billy Beane says cheated him is named Scott?

  17. ohiojimw

    Whatever is going on it seems to be setting a bad precedent for a team that hopes to make multiple deals involving established MLB players for prospects.

    Hopefuly there a reasonable and straightforward explanation that other potential trading partners of the Reds will accept at face value.

  18. RCCOLAMAN

    Is it possible that physicals are holding up the trade process?

    • jdx19

      I think physicals are always done later, after the trade is put down on paper. It seems to me they haven’t even gotten to the “writing it down” part yet.

    • Jeremy Conley

      That was how it was initially reported, but that was inaccurate it seems. trades are usually reported as done pending physicals, the Reds are saying the deal isn’t done.

    • ohiojimw

      With it being the off season, any player could literally be anywhere in the world. Chapman could even be (visiting) in Cuba from what I’ve read of the change in relations there between US and Cuba. Other guys mentioned might live in the Caribbean or Central America.

      Given these possible logistic issues, one would think the teams would at least make some joint announcement about a tentative deal pending working out logistics even if they didn’t reveal the names on the other side.

  19. lwblogger2

    I’d call it “No deal” at the moment.

  20. ManuelT

    This site is staying on top of the story better than ESPN.

    • Vicferrari

      MLB TV just now reports 2 prospects to Dodgers, did not address delay or 3rd team

      • ohiojimw

        The usual Twitter suspects are noticeably silent. If it isn’t already above here, the Reds blew off their 5PM (Nashville time) GM press briefing.

      • Vicferrari

        should have been Chapman to Dodgers for 2 prospects- have not been watching lately; but my points was that they were not discussing the issues with the delay

    • Ryan Lykins (@ryan_lykins)

      The only baseball teams that exist to ESPN are the Red Sox and Yankees. Can’t stand ESPN.

  21. Brian

    just wondering, regardless of result has anyone seen anything like this before? I feel like even when deals are done and then note done more details seem to come out much faster.

    • Gaffer

      The more I read this, the more it sounds like nothing will come of it. His firing a gun is a problem, but the girlfriend was not hurt.

      • ohiojimw

        MLB apparently also just learned and will investigate under their new domestic violence policy. I think it is very big and will also spill over into the Reds org if they knew and did not report it to MLB

  22. Dan

    Well there is always a compensation pick next year…. if he doesn’t blow his arm out.

    • ohiojimw

      At this rate, he will probably accept a qualifying offer to put another year behind him from this incident…

  23. Brian

    This is interesting as Stark reported earlier that it was the Reds who told teams he was still available and his dodgers sources were telling him they felt it was done, very odd and dissapointing development.

  24. Dan

    CBA lawyers would have a field day if he was traded now.

  25. tct

    Once again, Walt waits too long to pull the trigger on a trade and this time it may cost the Reds big time. Still can’t figure out why the didn’t trade him at the deadline last July. I’m glad no one was hurt in this incident, but it is very disappointing as far as the rebuild effort goes.

  26. jessecuster44

    SHOULD HAVE TRADED HIM IN JULY!!!

    Reds knew about incident and did nothing. Good lord, this organization is such a steaming pile of crap.

      • Michael_Øk

        That is true, we aren’t sure if the Reds organization knew about this. And to add to that: assuming they even knew that Chapman was involved in a domestic violence incident; they probably would have tried trading him earlier than this. I’ll give the Reds the benefit of the doubt until anything else is reported.

      • Gaffer

        Actually the article says they knew for some time, that stinks.

      • RFM

        ‘The article says they knew for some time’? Uh, I can’t find any such thing in the article. Copy and paste, please?

        Not saying you’re wrong, but I certainly didn’t see that.

  27. Gaffer

    Have heard multiple stories over the years of how Aroldis has no idea how to function in the U.S., especially with millions. I guess this should not be a surprise, but man what a disaster.

    • Seadog101967

      Surprise… Not at all. It all comes back to character. $$$/Guns/Women. Money/Women and guns in that order. Aroldis is a man, but he needs leadership/guidance. Obviously he lacks both. He has no interest in Cincinnati….None. His life will spiral. Trade him for a pack of mints at this point. This is also why you keep Dat Dude.

  28. ohiojimw

    From Sheldon on Twitter:

    Trade not dead for Chapman but could be delayed couple of weeks, Jocketty said #reds

    I think that is a pretty optimistic outlook on WJ’s part.

    • RedAlert

      Unreal – And agree. That sounds pretty optimistic. I want Walt Jocketty to just completely distance himself from this organization . His “Midas touch” has disintegrated. Not blaming him for Chapman’s legal problems , but had a chance to trade him at the deadline and couldn’t do it. Overplayed his hand with Chapman and now he Reds gonna pay for it big time . Castellini needs to cut the cord .

  29. WVRedlegs

    Look at the facts as reported.
    1. The Florida DA declined to prosecute.
    2. The police presented the evidence they had to the DA. Conflicting stories.
    3. The police reported no injuries found on the woman, especially where she alleged him to grabbed her and throw her down.
    4. The gun incident was Chapman taking a gun from his car and going into his garage alone and firing 8 shots at a wall. The woman was never endangered by the gun and wasn’t in that room. The only person endangered was Chapman, by ricochets or by his own hand.
    5. The woman stole his cell phone, locked herself in a bathroom and went through his cell phone stuff. Found something she didn’t like. That instigated the dispute.
    6. A month before this incident, Chapman reported a burglary at this same home. The woman stole a key without Chapman knowing and while he was out of town removed many items from the home.
    7. The woman is an ex-girlfriend whom Chapman and she have a 4 month old child. During the night of this incident, the woman claimed she ran from the home for her and her child’s safety, ran across the street to hide in some bushes until the police arrived. However she didn’t take the child with her and left it in the residence.

    MLB will investigate as they should. The police presented what they had to the DA. The DA declined for lack of evidence. Not even any charges for shooting the wall in his garage. She-said/he-said cases are hard to prove without any corroborating evidence.
    Its bad timing for the Reds and this trade.

  30. Myron Gaines

    Clearly no mentorship for this dude who came into a lot of money very quickly.

    Also, if the Reds were covering this up, this could get really nasty, not only with other teams, but the MLB…

    Obviously this is not something you consider happening, but the idea to trade in July sort of follows the same reasoning… avoiding late-season injury or incident. What an organizational failure.