*Updated at 11:48 PM following the Cardinals win*

The calendar turned to September today, and the Reds elimination number in the NL Central was just two. That meant a Reds loss and a Cardinals win on Tuesday evening would eliminate the Reds in the NL Central in 2015.

Joey Votto got the Reds started off on the right foot. Votto smashed an opposite field home run in the top of the first inning to give the Reds a 1-0 lead. Votto would add an RBI double later in the sixth inning to give the Reds a 3-1 lead.

Reds starter Anthony DeSclafani pitched very well through the first five innings. He had only allowed two hits, one walk, one run, and struck out seven. The Reds lead 3-1 entering the bottom of the sixth. However, DeSclafani got into trouble in the sixth inning, and couldn’t get out of it. Sam LeCure came into the game, but he allowed the tying run to score.

Eugenio Suarez hit a solo home run to lead off the seventh inning to give the Reds the lead back. That lead didn’t last for long though. Cincinnati native, Kyle Schwarber struck the Reds again, as he blasted a two-run bomb off Burke Badenhop to give the Cubs a 5-4 lead.

The Cubs bullpen held the lead, and the Cubs won 5-4. The Cardinals walked off the Washington Nationals in the bottom of the ninth to officially eliminate the Cincinnati Reds from the NL Central in 2015. The Reds have been eliminated from the division with 33 days left in the baseball season.

Final R H E
Cincinnati Reds (55-77) 4 7 0
Chicago Cubs (75-56) 5 9 0
W: Rodney (6-5) L: Badenhop (1-4) S: Rondon (25)
FanGraphs Win Probability | Box Score | Game Thread

WPA Reds cubs

Biggest Play of the Game

According to Fangraphs WPA statistic (winning percentage added), the most important play of the game was Burke Badenhop allowing a 2-run home run to Kyle Schwarber with 2 outs in the 7th inning, giving the Cubs a 5-4 lead. That play decreased the Reds chances of winning by 49.4% (from 71.8% to 22.4%).

Player of the Game

Joey Votto: 2 for 3, 1 HR, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 RBI, 0.20 WPA

That Votto guy is at it again. He hit his 26th home run of the season in the first inning, which ties him with Paul Goldschmidt and Anthony Rizzo for 5th in the NL. Votto also had an RBI double in the 6th inning. I am not sure if this man is human or not. The great Joe Posnanski wrote a great piece about Votto’s amazing second half today.

Votto entered today with a 1.288 OPS in the second half. The only players since at least 1914 (the last year data for this sort of thing is available) to have an OPS better than 1.288 in the second half are a couple guys named Bonds, Williams, Ruth, and Hornsby. One might say this is some…..elite company.

Votto Elite

Source: Baseball Reference Play Index

Positives

Anthony DeSclafani pitched pretty well again. The first five innings were absolutely awesome. He couldn’t get through the sixth inning, which is something he needs to improve on. Overall all though, another solid start during a really solid rookie season for DeSclafani: 5.2 IP, 4 H, 0 HR, 3 ER, 2 BB, 7 K, 1.71 FIP.

Eugenio Suarez hit his 11th home run of the season. That puts him 9th in the MLB among SS, despite having about half of the PA of the leader. The Reds are going to have a really tough decision on how to deal with Suarez. I hope they don’t mess up the kid. He needs to be an everyday SS, 2B, or 3B.

Brandon Phillips had a hit, and then stole second and third base. Phillips’ legs seem to have found some youth, as he now has 20 stolen bases in 2015. Phillips had a total of 7 stolen bases in 2013 and 2014 combined!

Negatives

Burke Badnehop got rocked by Schwarber.

Give us more Adam Duvall and Ryan LaMarre, and less Jason Bouregois and Ivan De Jesus Jr.

Not so random thoughts…………….

Fernando Rodney got the win for the Cubs tonight. He allowed the Reds to take the lead in the 7th inning, yet still got the win. Reason #1873 why wins and losses are terrible way to evaluate a pitcher.

Up Next:

Reds at Cubs
Wednesday, 2:20 PM
TV: Fox Sports Ohio
Raisel Iglesias (13 GS, 3.92 ERA, 3.37 FIP) vs Jason Hammel (25 GS, 3.42 ERA, 3.62 FIP)

54 Responses

  1. wildwestlv

    Nothing new to see here. Joey’s still an elite player and the Reds are still losers.

  2. Gaffer

    Loved this game, as most of all the Reds I like did well. Ones that should not be reds anyway did bad. But, we don’t hurt our chances of a top draft pick!

  3. RedAlert

    Nick , nice recap -I’d rather see Winker instead of LaMarre . LaMarre not gonna be in the long range plans of this team (whatever the heck the plan might be ???)😏

    • rhayex

      Winker isn’t coming up this year because of service time considerations. If they hold him out for part of next year, they get him for an extra two years than if they brought him up tomorrow.

      Likewise, if they hold him out for 2017 (which some prospect analysts have suggested is possible), then they’ll have him until at least 2024, vs. the 2021 they’d have bringing him up this year.

      • VaRedsFan

        Exactly Rhayex….people need to stop hollering for Winker to come up.

      • RedAlert

        Yea , let’s keep running Skip out there since he’s such an integral part of the future

  4. GreatRedLegsFan

    With DeJesus, Barnhart, Duvall, Suarez & maybe Bouregois the bench looks pretty decent for 2016, a least much better compared to how it started this season. A major task will be how to refurnish the bullpen, I just can see Chapman (if not traded) and Hoover as locks for next year, everyone else should leave.

    • CI3J

      With all the young pitching the Reds have, they can probably fill a lot of bullpen spots internally on the cheap.

      And I wouldn’t count on our bench on Opening Day 2016 being what it is now. You know there will be some washed up ex-Cardinals out there looking for a job that Walt will be only all too eager to give them. #GRIT4EVA

  5. vegastypo

    I actually don’t mind seeing more of what DeJesus can do, though not at the expense of Duvall. Bourgeois has enough on the back of his baseball card to say what he is gonna bring, so I’d still play LaMarre just for the heck of it. What more are we going to learn about Bourgeois that previous seasons haven’t shown?

  6. pinson343

    More Ryan LaMarre and less Ivan De Jesus Jr. ? Why ? LaMarre did not hit at AAA and is overmatched at the major league level. De Jesus’ .257/.340/.382 is much better than he could manage. DeJesus should have been called up sooner than he was.

    More Duvall, less Schumaker.

    • sezwhom

      Have you checked Duvall’s stats? I have no problem if he’s in the lineup but let’s not get too carried away.

      • NCRedsfan

        I would hardly call Duvall over Schumaker getting carried away.

      • jessecuster44

        Anybody over Skip is not getting carried away.

    • Hotto4Votto

      I agree. Although I think LaMarre can fill a role in the future if he gets back to the plate discipline he demonstrated earlier in his career. I think he’s sold out some of that trying to garner more power.

  7. pinson343

    Yet another late loss on a HR by a LHed hitter. Badenhop hadn’t given up a HR in almost 50 innings, but just the same, he faced 4 LHed hitters in a row and couldn’t get one of them out. Even with September call ups, the Reds don’t have any LHed relief in their organization ?

    • ohiojimw

      My thoughts exactly. With all the stuff that’s gone down, this being the case last night was the thing that made me too irritated to check in here until now.

      Of course they have Finnegan who likely is the heir in waiting to Chapman given what we’ve seen from Lamb and with Reed coming up the chain like gangbusters but It is more important to go through the motions of making him a starter at AAA than to see if he can get outs versus real major leaguers in leverage situations (snark alert) 🙂

  8. pinson343

    Suarez threw his bat in disgust after his HR swing, sure he’d just flied out. Then he stopped at 2nd, wondering where the ball had gone.

  9. Shchi Cossack

    With their 7 game losing streak intact, the Braves have moved behind (ahead) of the Reds:

    MIL 56-75 … 4.0 games from last place in the NL
    CIN 54-77 … 2.0 games from last place in the NL
    ATL 54-78 … 1.5 games from last place in the NL
    MIA 54-79 … 1.0 games tied for last place in the NL
    COL 53-78 … 1.0 games from last place in the NL
    PHI 53-80 … 0.0 games tied for last place in NL

    Only 1 team (OAK 58-75) in the AL has more than 71 losses.

  10. Shchi Cossack

    The Votto march continues…

    Joey Votto now has a slash of .315/.458/.563 for a 1.020 OPS. Votto ranks in the NL:

    AVG 6th => .006 behind 5th & .018 behind 1st
    OBP 2nd => .003 behind 1st
    SLG 2nd => .067 behind 1st
    OPS 2nd => .071 behind 1st

    That kid in Washington (What’s his name? Harper’s Bizarre or something like that?) must have taken notice of the Votto surge and put up a 2.300 OPS yesterday, going 2-2 with 1-2B & 3 BB. Then he looks up and Votto had put up a 2.750 OPS yesterday, going 2-3 with 1-HR, 1-2B & 1 BB. This is getting fun.

  11. VaRedsFan

    “That meant a Reds loss and a Cardinals win on Tuesday evening would eliminate the Reds in the NL Central in 2015.”

    …Yeah, but we aren’t eliminated from the wildcard yet 😉

    • tgarretson82

      Maybe we should sign veterans like Gregg, Marquis, and Boesch for the wildcard push.

  12. VaRedsFan

    Brandon Phillips has hit in 27 of his last 31 games. Also, congrats on getting his 20th stolen base against only 22 attempts.

    • Matt WI

      Yup, BP is still trying out there, contrary to those who say the team has quit. Good for him to get those SB’s.

    • redmountain

      Apparently Phillips came to camp lighter and in generally better shape than he had been. As players get older this is the way guys extend their careers.

    • jdx19

      BPs baserunning as been the biggest (positive) surprise this year in all of Reds-land, for me at least.

  13. IndyRedMan

    Just another close game where the Reds found a way to lose! Tony Disco had outstanding stuff but had to get thru 6 innings and he couldn’t make it! It was a hot night and he was on the bases after his rbi hit…..could’ve had something to do with it but basically the Cubs just fouled off a million pitches and wore him down! He has to learn from that and be able to finish off guys and win those kind of games! If he gets thru 6 with a 1 or 2 run lead then we’re in good shape.

  14. sultanofswaff

    Not pleased at all with some of the pitch calls on 2-2 and 3-2 counts when things got tight. First by Disco in the 6th, then by Badenhop vs. Schwarber. In both those cases, there was way too much straight stuff. At worst, you go soft away and they dink a hit to left field.

    121 strikeouts in 155 IP for Disco. Not exactly earth shattering. The walks are OK but he’s allowed 158 hits. Strangely, right handed hitters are doing better than lefties. That tells me he needs to work on his breaking pitches. All in all, this seems to indicate he’s a #3 starter or lower on a good staff.

    What worries me is that he have a lot of those types in the pipeline (Lamb, Travieso, Romano, Moscot, Reed, Finnegan, etc.) but no surefire high ceiling types except for Robert Stephenson. To me, he’s the most important player in the Reds organization, major league roster included. To have any hope of being a world series caliber team, we have to have at least one stud to get us there. Can’t wait to see him this month.

    • rhayex

      I doubt we’ll see him for the same reason we won’t see Winker. By holding him out for part of next year you get 2 additional years of control. It’d be silly and irresponsible to waste that when we’re not playing for anything.

      • Shchi Cossack

        Promoting either Winker or Stephenson for a September call up has no negative impact on either their service time or super 2 status, but it does provide them some experience at the major league level that could serve them when they are called up to the show on a permanent basis in 2016 or 2017. The only impact is their options. Just because they are promoted for a September call up this season does not mean they have to be on the 25-man roster to start the 2016 season or at all during the 2016 for that matter. It just burns one of their 3 available options and I do not believe options are a concern for either Winker or Stephenson.

      • RedAlert

        Exactly this ! Why keep holding Winker back at this point ? He is wearing out AA pitching. Bring him up and let him play. If he needs more time in the minors next year, so be it . As Cossack has indicated , options shouldn’t be an issue for him anyway .

      • rhayex

        I understand that, but by calling them up now you increase the amount of time you have to wait in 2016 (or 2017 if you wait) to call them up. They DO accumulate service time by being called up in September.

      • rhayex

        Sorry, I misread your first line (which makes the “I understand” bit of my response not make sense). It does actually affect their service time. Otherwise, everyone would be calling up their top prospects in September.

      • Shchi Cossack

        CP, the statement was no ‘negative’ impact on service time. A call-up will start his service time clock, but since the Reds will need neither Winker nor Stephenson in 2016, or at least to start 2016, the 20 days of service time become irrelevant. At the worst, their promotion in 2016 would be delayed (20 days) until later in the summer rather than early in the summer, even if the Reds are competative through the 1st 2 months of the season and need them before the end of the season after either player has produced in AAA for 3 months. The only other issue besides options is the 40-man roster. Both would require a 40-man roster move, but there is more than enough baggage sitting on the 40-man roster to accomodate those 2 moves.

      • Chuck Schick

        There is very little upside in bringing him up and a boatload of potential downside.

        If he gets hurt he ‘ll go on the Reds disabled list and time on the DL counts towards service time. Why potentially waste an entire year for a 3 week sampling of a guy who won’t be here until at least the middle of next year?

        What if he does really well? Bob C needs to sell tickets and it would be bad PR to send ” the Savior” back to AAA.

        What if he does really poorly? His confidence is high right now. Why risk him developing bad habits when they don’t need him yet?

    • Shchi Cossack

      Let’s not forget Raisel! He certainly looks like a top-of-the-rotation starter. With Bailey, Iglesias and (hopefully) Stephenson the Starting pitching rotation looks pretty solid. Garrett may even be a top-of-the-rotation candidate in a couple more years. That leaves everyone else duking it out for the #4 & #5 rotation spots and most of the candidates appear to be #3 quality who just need additional experience. Stuff happens and no one can see what the future holds, but the future for the Reds pitching staff looks bright right now.

      • Matt WI

        Agreed. If Disco slots into the four spot, that’s probably a good sign. I just LOVE watching Raisel pitch. Got my first chance to really see him on tv over multiple innings in his start against the Brewers. There’s just something special going on there.

    • Hotto4Votto

      Between Bailey, Iglesias, and Stephenson we *should* have a very formidable top three. Disco is having a very good rookie season. But he was never expected to be more than a 4/5 on the rotation. So he may not be a 3. He was never projected to be. The fact that some may be disappointed by that just highlights how good he’s been. If Lamb, Lorenzen, or Moscot can hold down the fifth spot in the future we should have a very good rotation with quality depth.

      • wizeman

        Bailey, Iglesias, Stephenson and Disco a solid 4. Figure Bailey not ready until late May.
        I thought Moscot was solid until he got hurt. Think Lorenzen will be fine. Was lights out until he got hit in hand the other night. Lamb looks pretty good and Reed killing it in AA. Add Garrett, Travioso, Finnegan and I think we have got some brighter days ahead.
        I think Ted Power does a good job with the young guys. Since they are mostly going to be here… I would like him to be here also.

    • redmountain

      I, do not know when Stephenson will come up to the majors. However, potential aces on this team would include Bailey, Garrett, Travieso, Iglesias, Finnegan, Reed, and Stephenson. I think DeSclafani would fit in there with more experience and there are others who could also fit here.

  15. james garrett

    Another close loss by the Reds.Not having a left hander,outside of Chapman,in the pen really hampers any team in the late innings.Disco was great and he and the others will learn going forward.All pitchers must make adjustments the third time through a line up in order to get to the next level and I believe that will come.I feel we have at least 3 good starters going into next year with Lamb,Iggy and Disco.Throw in Bailey and maybe Stephenson and we have the potential to be set for a long time.Need another solid bat or two and a veteran starter to show the kids the way and we could be back in hunt in two or three years.Remember the rest of our division isn’t falling back any time soon but there is hope.

    • CP

      I don’t mind grabbing an inning eating veteran, but that’s pretty much the justification the Reds used for Jason Marquis.

      Fay has mentioned multiple times that he felt Bronson would make sense. I suspect Fay misses Bronson’s easy interview, but, assuming Bronson is healthy, I could dig it.

      • IndyRedMan

        No…no….no! We have too many good arms as it is! If they can get some vet on the cheap (aka Alfredo Simon in 2012 or whenever?) and try to rejuvenate him then that’s one thing but we don’t need another has been just eating innings at a 4.50 era or worse. Boston sent down Joe Kelly to AAA earlier and now he’s came back w/5 straight good starts. He’s under 30 and throws 95. That’s the type of guy to take a shot at!

      • Shchi Cossack

        I don’t see any reason to pursue a FA starter, except on a minor league contract, with a clear understanding that it is a ‘minor’ league contract with no expressed intent or assuance regarding a major league status. Too frequently, the minor league contract offered to FA by WJ, come with the understanding that the player will start the season on the major league roster and the minor league contract is just a formality, a ruse if you will.

      • CP

        Oh I agree. I don’t think the Reds have to add a FA starter, but I don’t think the Reds bullpen, which is likely to be weakened during the offseason when they trade Chapman, is prepared to handle the workload that this young rotation will probably be throwing their way. Someone needs eat some innings or we’re going to need to see the return of Scott Sullivan. Burke Badenhop’s arm may fall off.

        Regardless, the Reds management, on the field and in the front office, cannot be as rigid as they have proved to be. If the veteran cannot perform adequately, they need to be gone. The Reds will probably have to eventually move some of the young guys in and out of the bullpen to save innings.

        Next year has the potential to set up the Reds for years-to-come, but also potentially be a real quagmire for the Reds. For example, they’re stretching Finnegan back out to be a starter. When the Reds’ bullpen gets blown up and/or Finnegan starts struggling and/or can’t get past the 5th inning (which you have to expect), it’s going to be awfully tempting to move him back to the bullpen.

  16. WVRedlegs

    BP was on MLB Network Radio last week with Bowden talking about his charity bowling event this weekend. Bowden asked BP about the increase in his SB’s this year. BP told him “I got my legs back, I got my legs back.” He said he’d been bothered the last two seasons with nagging injuries to his legs, mostly the groin pulls. He said Price has given him the green light to go when he can.
    I believe the Reds have found their #2, #3, and #5 starters for next year in Iglesias, DeSclafani, and Lamb. Can Stephenson earn that #4 spot, or is it Lorenzen’s?
    I also heard on MLBN radio on Monday that the Indians manager, Terry Francona, has an opt-out clause in his contract this off-season. With the front office changes going on in Cleveland with Shapiro going to Toronto, could that give Francona enough reason to opt-out and then be available for Cincinnati if the Reds fire Price??

    • Shchi Cossack

      Francona has very emphatically said no. He explained that such an action would violate the ‘intent’ of the opt-out clause, even if the opt-out clause permitted such an action.

  17. RedAlert

    Schumaker in the lineup again and In left field – must have some compromising photos of Price or something -unbelievable

    • jdx19

      He needs more playing time to accumulate the negative WAR needed to lead the league in that category. Duh! Price is a players’ manager!

  18. CP

    Question:

    Both John Lamb and Yorman Rodriguez were originally signed in 2008 and therefore have 7 years minor league service time (if my math is correct). Does that mean they have to be on the major league roster next season or be given free agency?

  19. Tom Reed

    Done in by Schwarber. A Middie from Middletown who grew up as a Reds fan.

  20. james garrett

    Price please play the young guys we know what Skip brings to the dance.Doesn’t matter if he does good or bad the others are better options at this time.

    • Matt WI

      Remember when Mes was a Sept call up that Dusty just refused to let out of the dugout? Man that was frustrating.