Best reasoning for expecting a win tomorrow against the Tigers:

The chances of a ten game losing streak are astronomical!

Reds 0 Diamondbacks 4  |  FanGraphs  |  Proof of continued presence of Reds-hating spirit

Raisel Iglesias had 13 strikeouts, the most for a Reds rookie since 1968. In his last 54 innings, Iglesias has struck out 60 and walked 12.

Ryan LaMarre recorded his first major league hit.

Nothing else matters.

81 Responses

  1. pinson343

    Thanks for getting this up so soon, Steve, because I wanted to get my one comment out of the way and forget about the Reds for a while.

    Iglesias took a vintage Cueto Sunday loss today: 1 ER in 7 innings. And also 13 Ks, wow !

  2. kywhi

    Not that it really matters, I guess, but I keep wondering when any of the professional reporters who are paid to cover the Reds get around to asking the players about the miserable fail that is this season. I’m sure the players care — or at least I hope they care — but it would be interesting to hear their take on this mess.

    • Chuck Schick

      What are the players suppose to say?

      ” Well, Trent….I’m not surprised by our performance since I’m really bad and when I look around most of the other guys are bad as well. Sure, I’d like to win more, but the Angel of Talent bypassed most of us and we’re slightly above a replacement level team right now.

      Despite the sheer pile of bad, I do believe if we used Chapman in more high leverage situations we’d likely be in first place and had Skip Schumaker been eaten by a shark over the winter we’d be World Series contenders. Also, if Votto would stop getting on base all the time our RISP average would be much better and callers to sports talk shows would have nothing to talk about. Price has cost us at least 20 wins due to his lack of seasoning. I’m sure if someone with a winning attitude like Barry Larkin….who made the playoffs 2 times in 19 seasons…..managed us we’d be challenging the 1998 Yankees for best of all time. All in all, I’d rather be here than Philadelphia.”

      • Ih8Walt

        Best post on this site ever …. hands down. We’ll done.

      • jessecuster44

        Nice post – but the thing is reporters don’t ask the questions. Imagine if the media held the team accountable. The manager sure doesn’t.

      • Chuck Schick

        To what would the media be holding them accountable? Is this some super team that is underperforming….or are they a bad team playing as one would expect a bad team to play?

      • jessecuster44

        Bryan Price, in his presser, said there would be accountability. There hasn’t been any.

        It would be refreshing if the Cincinnati media would call the organization out on its missteps. That’s the accountability I’m talking about. Instead, the media has largely been silent about just how bad this team is.

        If the Reds were a team in the New York area, they would be raked over the coals by now.

      • Tim

        I could not agree more….on most,,,,

        One of the best post ever? Close.

        This team is not bad. This team is learning?? Look at Price and his comments lately…He is treating this team as I hope he would my 15 year-olds team,,, Limit innings thrown/work on your footwork/etc.etc.etc.

        For God”s sake this is a MAJOR LEAGUE TEAM……..I am hearing the same things I hear at my kids game. Please don’t coddle us.

        Joey Votto has to be laughing his ASS off.

      • Chuck Schick

        In the 40.75 seasons since the last out of the 1976 World Series, the Reds have won 50.28% of their games.

        They’ve been extremely bad 4 times, good to very good 10 times and thoroughly mediocre 27 times.

        They’ve made the playoffs 6 times and have won a total of 3 playoff series since the Ford Administration. In 1977, they drew 2.5 million and this year are projected to draw 2.5 million.

        They have been the embodiment of mediocrity. Not consistently good… with few exceptions not atrociously bad. Just good enough to keep fan interest until football season.

        Greatness and ineptitude create passion. Mediocrity drives apathy and indifference. The media doesn’t care that they’ve been perfectly average because most fans don’t really care that they’ve been perfectly average. As long as they don’t totally suck and the BRM makes an occasional appearance people will show up at the same rate they always have.

        Their really is no market for an endless stream of Reds bashing stories….and until ok isn’t good enough there won’t be.

      • jim t

        You get comment of the year. LMAO!!! love this.

      • jessecuster44

        Hence the problem of all pro sports in Cincy. Ok is just fine. We’ll be happy to put up with it.

      • lwblogger2

        Holy cow! Now that’s funny stuff!

  3. Tom Reed

    A seven inning gem for Iggy with 13 K’s. WJ, or whoever is going to be the Red’s GM come the offseason, has got to revamp the offense.

  4. doublenohitter

    Considering the reds are playing without Cozart, Mesoraco, Hamilton, Byrd, Leake, Cueto, Bailey, Chapman, Marshall, Parra and have a bench of Boesch, Schumaker, Pena and LaMarre, I’d be shocked if they don’t lose 100.

    • Mutaman

      Except they are playing with Votto, Phillips, Frazier and Bruce.

      • docmike

        So… 4 good players outweigh the other 21 on the roster?

      • Mutaman

        of course not , but should a team with at least 4 good players be 20 games under .500 ?

      • Redsfan48

        We have more than 4 good players. Votto, Frazier, Bruce and Chapman are all very good established veterans. Suárez, DeSclafani and Iglesias are a bit raw still but look to be very good players as well. The bullpen has flashes of brilliance with Hoover and Diaz at times, but a bit inconsistent, especially outside of those two. The bench is by far the biggest weakness

      • Michael E

        Votto and Frazier are good players. Bruce and Phillips are not. So two good players, two average players and crap. Add in a healthy dose of green starting pitching and waiver fodder for a bullpen and you should get to 100 losses.

        I am all for this. I seem to be the only Red fan NOT wanting them to win now. It’s called an eye for the future (and a top 3 draft pick would be beneficial, just ask the Cubs and Astros).

  5. rhayex

    We are now 2.5 games back (ahead?) of the last place Phillies. If they win, we will be two games off of the first pick of the 2016 draft.

    • Michael E

      I am rooting for losses and in the minority. No point in winning now…NONE. I hope for a top 3 draft pick, but darn there are some crappy NL teams right now. We’re in a dog fight for last place and it might prove tougher than winning a division.

  6. james garrett

    What I think doesn’t mean anything but the starting lineup last night was a good one and I felt that way before the game started.It had the 4 guys above along with Surarez,Barnhart,LaMarre and Boesch. We lost but we scored and today with arguably our best pitcher going we set down 4 of those guys.It was the classic Sunday day game after a night game Dusty give away game.Most managers would have penciled in the same 8 players the next game after they put up 7 runs the night before.Especially when our offense has been so bad for so long.Did anybody think we would score today?I am done venting but come on.

    • Shchi Cossack

      Your premise is sound with one exception, Boesch was injured and couldn’t play. Right now I have no issue with Pena working as Iggy’s personal catcher. If Pena makes him more comfortable while Iggy get’s his feet wet, I can give Price that decision for the remainder of 2015. DeJesus needs to play as well as Suarez, but playing Schumaker as a starter simply makes no sense in any context.

      • David

        In makes sense in one situation, going for the #1 pick!

  7. Hotto4Votto

    Our entire OF today shouldn’t sniff a 25-man roster spot on a decent team. Good to see we’re chasing that number #1 pick with a fervor.

    • Frogger

      Bought tickets for the family to attend this game back in March. We could only watch a couple innings before finding other things to do in the stadium. Incredibly disappointing when I had to explain to my wife who Jason Bourgious is and why he is batting leadoff. At least the kids got a Votto poster out of it!!

  8. unc reds fan

    After the dodgers lost it in the Ninth, and another game where chapman as a closer is not needed, I wish Jocketty had called LA and said Chapman for Pederson straight up…I wonder if that couldn’t have been acheived

    • Evan armstrong

      Word is Pederson is untouchable

      • Redsfan48

        Not as untouchable as Seager, especially with his rough second half. I bet they’d listen to offers if the non waiver deadline was next week instead of last month. Obviously he wouldn’t go through waivers so they wouldn’t even listen until the offseason at least.

    • SabrChris

      And the Dodgers would laughed at the prank call and hung up. No organization with a progressive modern outlook would value a 60 inning reliever with 1 year of control no matter great they are over a rookie of year candidate with 6 more years of control. Expect perhaps the Reds, who still operate under the elite closer mythology.

    • redmountain

      Until Pederson can show he can hit anything other than homers, I would not go after him. In the future he may be able to hit, but right now he is hitting no better than Hamilton.

      • Steve Mancuso

        Only if you judge just by batting average – but overall offensive contribution much better than Hamilton.

        Pederson: On-base 36% of the time, power is .227, wRC+ is 125 (25 percent better than average)

        Hamilton: On-base 27% of the time, power is .064, wRC+ is 52 (48 percent worse than average)

      • Michael E

        Here we agree. Pederson can’t hit a lick lately and he knows it. Wisely, he is taking a lot of walks instead. SMART. If only Hamilton would do that.

        I would trade Hamilton and another top 5 prospect for Pederson is a heart beat, but Dodgers wouldn’t trade Pederson. They know the rest of their OF is suspect. Good stats, but head cases, injury prones and overpaid collection of stiffs in the OF for them. The future is Pederson.

      • jdx19

        Also, a bit unfair to compare them when Hamilton has a full season of big-league experience on Pederson. Compare Perderson next year to Hamilton now… I don’t expect it to be close.

      • Michael E

        I would driver Hamilton to LA myself if I thought we could get Pederson for him and another prospect. I’d give up anyone except Stephenson.

  9. wildwestlv

    I have to take Walt at his word when he says we’re stockpiling pitchers to get position players in the offseason. Something has to change: This lineup, even with a healthy Mesoraco and Cozart, is not/has never been talented enough to go beyond getting their foot in the playoffs, and as they all get older, they haven’t even been able to sniff the postseason. This bunch’s time was over a long, long, long time ago. More specifically, it ended here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P1TVP5OsqZk

    • jessecuster44

      when did Walt ever say that?

      • wildwestlv

        He’s never laid it out fully like that, but he’s indicated in several comments that they won’t keep all these arms and he’s said, to the effect, that that’s how teams get position players, by trading good pitching.

      • jessecuster44

        Walt indicated last winter that he would go after a high OBP bat. He got Byrd instead. Forgive me if I don’t believe much that comes out of his mouth.

      • RedAlert

        Me neither Jesse – Walt’s full of hot air for the most part – just a mouthpiece

      • jdx19

        Yeah, after the OBP comment (and a glimmer of hope) I don’t trust anything Walt says.

    • Michael E

      I am fine with keeping the pitching. Having a dozen darn good pitchers, young and cheap, means lots of payroll to allocate to FA hitters and we need to ditch about four or five of the current starters as soon as the season ends. We need a new culture of putting the bat on the ball (so long Bruce, Phillips…and maybe even Hamilton).

    • redmountain

      A lineup of Cozart, Votto, Mesoraco, Frazier, Phillips, Bruce, with DeJesus, Suarez, Pena, Hamilton, and Barnhart is not good enough to contend if they get decent pitching? Then how do the Pirates do it?

      • jdx19

        The big qualifier is “IF they get decent pitching.” That’s a pretty tall order given the fact that only DeSclafani and Iglesias have looked decent this year. Maybe some of the new additions from the trade deadline will help (Lamb, Finnegan). Maybe Stephenson will be ready next year.

        So, we’re basically at “if our lineup stays 100% healthy and Zack Cozart comes back from destroying his knee to play GG-shortstop defense” and “if we get decent pitching from a rotation of rookies and 2nd year guys” we can compete.

        I mean… it’s certainly possible, but extremely unlikely.

      • Michael E

        yeah, “good” pitching is likely two or three seasons away. A good 2016 is average pitching and that won’t be enough to overcome weak hitting Hamilton, aging Phillips and slumpmaster Bruce.

  10. Tom Billings

    This team sucks horse tail. They are a complete embarrassment to the city of Cincinnati

  11. sultanofswaff

    That was as bad an offensive game as I’ve seen in a long long time (okay, maybe a month). There wasn’t one ball pulled with authority against a pitcher with only 80 strikeouts in 120 innings. Just a smattering of slap hits to right field. Stunning.

    Iglesias had his good stuff today, frequently touching 95-96 with his fastball. Remember, he didn’t even play last year! Can’t wait to see how dominant he’ll be with a full offseason training regimen and a healthy knowledge of the league.

    • ohiojimw

      Yep, he is fitting right into the Cueto role down to being the hard luck guy in terms of lack of offensive support.

  12. wildwestlv

    How many games are left now? 40? Sitting at 71 losses after today. This team is still very capable of making it to 100.

    • Michael E

      It’s going to be tough, but I am hopeful we get to 100. That should lock in a top 3 pick with a shot at #2 or #1.

      • JRAL

        Right on the mark! What I would like to see is a rating of available draftees the Reds might go after.

      • WVRedlegs

        Who is doing the drafting for the Reds in 2016? The same person who drafted The Bust, Nick Howard #19 overall in 2104? Hopefully no, that that person is no longer employed by the Reds.
        Way too early for most names, but….
        Univ. of Florida’s pitcher AJ Puk. He is LH and 6′-7″.
        Texas A&M OF Nick Banks. LH hitter.
        No word on what reliever the Reds have in mind to convert into a starter, aka The Nick Howard Project. Biggest Reds 1st round bust in well over a decade, and maybe ever.
        CTrent has an article on this today.

      • jdx19

        WVREDLEGS… almost all draft picks are busts. And Nick Howard hasn’t been around long enough to call him a bust. Some guys don’t pan out until 26-27.

        Odds are that AJ Puk and Nick Banks will also busts.

      • Michael E

        Top 3 picks bust at a much lower rater. Look at all the rookie of the year candidates that aren’t foreign (28 and 30 year old rookies). More than half were top 5 draft picks.

        The Cubs and Astros would not be rising without those top 3 picks. No chance.

      • Michael E

        WV, the top 3 picks are typically written in stone. We all know the top 3 players, the only key is which team might not draft one for the other due to signability or Boras. The Reds have shown they’re not worried about finances as much now (went and signed Cubans, outbid others for Chapman), so I feel confident they’ll take the consensus player at their pick. Whether or not we get a future star or a bust is out of our hands, but odds are much better at pick 2 than pick 12.

    • Kory Estes

      Completely off topic, but nice avatar of Randy Savage there WildWest. Hah, I forgot he played in the minors for the Reds.

  13. Daytonian

    Iglesias was all good news today (okay, disregarding a throw from first to the plate)–and I am not sure that he really had his best stuff. Balester also looked good in the ninth–continuing his string of shutout innings that he started at Louisville. Okay, it was only one inning, but Is it too soon to hope, that just maybe the Reds have found a reliever?

    • lwblogger2

      Maybe. He’s never been a particularly good starting pitcher at the MLB level though.

  14. GreatRedLegsFan

    Time to call for the season, let’s just forfeit the remaining games, this is just so embarrasing. But before please pack and send Jocketty and Price to infinity & beyond!

  15. Tim

    This team has way more talent than say 1981…..and still as said earlier sucks horse tail…

    • ohiojimw

      Agreed about the talent level versus some other really bad Reds teams. It is this fact they are so bad as a team that the focus should be on. To me it infers lack of organization and leadership right down the line.

  16. james garrett

    Leadership is clueless.Team went in the tank after the deadline and not because Cueto/Leake were traded that was a given.They went in the tank because of bad leadership plain and simple

  17. Shchi Cossack

    Todd Frazier has been the Old Cossack’s favorite Red’s player since he was dissed by WJ & Baker and omitted from the 25-man roster coming out of spring training in 2012. I’ve always considered Frazier to be one of the most commited, athletic players in the game today. Frazier is a big man, 6’3″ & 220#, strong as an ox and runs very well. But…

    After 4 seasons, a very disturbing trend has emerged and there is enough data now to suggest a problem. Frazier’s 1st half & 2nd half splits suggest that he wears down during the season.

    OPS comparison from 1st half and 2nd half of each season from 2012-2015:

    .901 => 1st half 2012
    .775 => 2nd half 2012

    .730 => 1st half 2013
    .708 => 2nd half 2013

    .853 => 1st half 2014
    .707 => 2nd half 2014

    .922 => 1st half 2015
    .615 => 2nd half 2015

    .847 => 1st half career
    .715 => 2nd half career

    Frazier’s BAbip follows the same trend, but his SO and BB remain fairly consistent from the 1st half and 2nd half. Could this be a conditioning problem? It sure looks like a conditioning issue. Maybe this needs to be addressed during the coming off-season. Frazier is signed for 2016, but 2017 is his 3rd year arbitration. If this is a conditioning problem, then a rigorous off-season conditioning regime would benefit both the Reds and Frazier heading to 2017.

    • Matt WI

      Wow, you might expect that kind of drop off in a very young guy, but not so consistently this far into his career. Plus, he came in to the Bigs a little bit older and seasoned to the wear and tear of the baseball schedule.

    • jdx19

      You just said yourself that his K rate and BB rate stay fairly consistent. The arbitrary 1st half / 2nd half split seems random to me.

      So, let’s assume that those 4 samples were the same size (which they arent). You’ve got 4 samples. If each one is a “better” or “worse” outcome, then that’s 50/50.

      So, what are the odds that four 50/50 coinflips come up “worse?” Well, 1 in 16. So, pretty decent odds.

      I’d say Todd is just an inconsistent hitter that has sort of randomly come up with these splits.

      • Shchi Cossack

        Prior to this season, I fully attributed the ‘trend’ to random variation and each season taken as a separate entity certainly represents a small sample, but when taken within the scope of Frazier’s career, the sample size begins to become significant.

        .835 OPS & .252 ISO => April (322 PA)
        .872 OPS & .247 ISO => May (401 PA)
        .854 OPS & .230 ISO => June (435 PA)

        .716 OPS & .163 ISO => July (419 PA)
        .747 OPS & .181 ISO => August (487 PA)
        .709 OPS & .190 ISO => September (304 PA)

        These results could certainly be due to an gross randomness, but the consistent monthly results in OPS and ISO for the 1st half of the season (1158 PA) and the 2nd half of the season (1210 PA) combined with the clear and abrupt demarcation in OPS & ISO between the 1st half of the season and the 2nd half of the season seems to speak to a more significant trend the just randomness. This also coincides (based strictly on the ‘eye test’ and I abhor references to the ‘eye test’ as justification or validation) with the high frequency of weak ground balls and weak fly balls Frazier seems to produce during the 2nd half of the season.

  18. redmountain

    It has been reported that LaRussa and Jocketty spent the weekend talking. Could be something going on here, like roster moves after the season or advice on who to hire to fix the problem.

    • Tom Reed

      They both have roots going back to the A”s and Cardinals so who knows what this could mean. It could be a smoothing out of an upcoming offseason trade of Chapman to the D-Backs for some much needed offense.

      • lwblogger2

        It could also be just talking about the kids/grandkids and other non-baseball stuff. As you said, they’ve known each other a long time and have worked closely together a long time.

      • WVRedlegs

        Just LaRussa poking fun at Jocketty for hiring Kevin Towers, whom LaRussa fired upon his arrival in Arizona.

      • lwblogger2

        Ha! Could be part of what was discussed!

  19. Shchi Cossack

    Devin Mesoraco exploded as an offensive threat in 2010 playing through 3 level of the minor league system (A+, AA & AAA).

    2009 => .692 OPS in A+
    2010 => .964 OPS in A+, AA & AAA
    2011 => .855 OPS in AAA

    Then WJ & Baker promoted Mesoraco to the 25-man roster in 2012 to sit the bench as a backup catcher in 2012 & 2013. Mesoraco did receive increased playing time during 2013 when Hannigan spent significant time on the DL. The promotion for 2012 & 2013 in a backup role not only negatively impacted his performance, but wasted 1 year of pre-arbitration with no benefit to the team or Mesoraco (other than getting the minimum major league salary). Mesoraco signed a contract extention after the 2014 season that covered his 3 seasons of arbitration and one season of FA, making him a FA in 2019 at his age 31 season.

    If WJ had managed Mesoraco’s arbitration and service time clock effectively, one of two situations would have resulted: (1) Mesoraco would have signed a very similar contract covering his 3 arbitration seasons and one year of FA but giving the Reds team control for one additional season and making Mesoraco a FA in 2020 at his age 32 season, or (2) Mesoraco would have signed a similar contract just covering his 3 arbitration seasons through 2018, still providing team control through the 2018 season but saving the Reds $13MM+ for Mesoraco’s FA season in 2019. In addition, Mesoraco would have had a full season of development with regular playing time at AAA during 2012 and been better prepared to produce offensively and defensively when called upon in 2013 when Hannigan went down with a serious of nagging and debilitating injuries.

    This lesson becomes significant with Winker approaching the decision regarding his pre-arbitration seasons and his major league service time clock. I have seen no indication that WJ can or will manage that situation any better than he did with Mesoraco or Hamilton and that scares the bejeezes out of the Old Cossack.

    • WVRedlegs

      The Cubs set the precedent with Kris Bryant. WJ will most likely follow suit on this with regards to Winker. While I would have liked to have seen Winker on Sept. 1, I don’t think now it is going to happen. I think even if Winker hits .500 in spring training next year, we won’t see Winker until about April 20, or whenever that service time clock date is. If Winker is ready, the Reds will follow that Kris Bryant template to a T.

      • Shchi Cossack

        Actually, WJ learning from, or at least following the example laid out by, Theo and Jed would be encouraging. Something about an old dog and new tricks…

  20. IndyRedMan

    Please let the Reds be bad enough to find a Kyle Schwarber in the draft somewhere? High school kids are no good because by the time they make (if they make it) Votto and crew will be too old. Schwarber was a can’t miss prospect as a hitter 2-3 years ago! The Cubs situation is very depressing because they can always buy pitching or whatever else they need to supplement their 5-6 great sticks.

  21. ohiojimw

    Consider just how bare the Reds farm system cupboard has become under Jocketty’s regime.

    The last influx of home grown talent that has made an major positive positional talent is the group of Frazier, Cozart and Meso, all three if whom became arbitration eligible this last off season. That’s half a cycle (to free agency) burned away in the interim. There is not a home grown player since except Hamilton who at this point is still a one trick side show pony who may or may not become a true all around talent and Barnhart who is trying to get traction as what figures to be a career back up to Meso.

    And the situation isn’t much better on the pitching side. They bought Chapman and Iglesias on the international defector market. They traded MLB talent for Disco. The bullpen has been a major weakness the last two seasons and we’ve seen nothing better than a career minor league retread than Diaz and a string of guys not really ready for prime time brought up from the minors with Hoover being obtained in a trade and a couple of other decent pitchers coming via FA signings.

    It makes a person wonder how the current regime is going to do at rebuilding.

    • ohiojimw

      And excuse my lousy keyboarding this afternoon. Hopefully you get the drift.

      • Mary queener

        Why are Reds bringinging Price back ? As the Reds announcers said the bullpen must be blown up get rid of Marshall hasn’t thrown a pitch in years parra is another liability the 2 bearded pitchers Are hard to watch bottom line chapman and homer Bailey (part of the problem) money wise Walt messed up with that contract but if Bailey can come back he is the only starting picher I would feel good about ! Field wise I think you have to trade Bruce he strikes out way too much he needs to take a walk every now and then it’s another Adam Dunn except Dunn hit more HRs Reds are a mess and for those that wanted Dusty gone well here’s what you got a team that lost 14 of their last 15 and had 2 separate 9 game losing streaks and Price is coming back as most national writers have written the guy is an average pitching coach but he’s in over his head as a manager ! I love the Reds but this team has to be retooled except for 3rd 2nd 1st catcher and center field shortstop I say put cozart in and move Suarez to left field