Michael Raymond Leake absolutely dominated the Miami Marlins this evening. Leake pitched eight shutout innings, allowing just three hits, while striking out ten. Leake retired the first ten batters he faced, and took a no-hitter into the fifth inning.

The Reds offense didn’t do much, but Jay Bruce’s solo home run in the second inning was all they needed. Aroldis Chapman finished off the Marlins in the 9th inning for his 18th save of the season. The Reds improved to 39-45.

Final R H E
Cincinnati Reds (39-45) 1 7 0
Miami Marlins (36-51) 0 4 0
W: Leake (6-5) L: Phelps (4-5) S: Chapman (18)
FanGraphs Win Probability | Box Score | Game Thread

Biggest Play of the Game

According to Fangraphs WPA statistic (winning percentage added), the most important play of the game was Jay Bruce’s solo home run in the 2nd inning, giving the Reds a 1-0 lead. That home run increased the Reds chances of winning by 11.2% (from 50.0% to 61.2%).

Player of the Game

Mike Leake: 8.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 10 K, 0.95 FIP, 0.61 WPA

Leake was absolutely tremendous. He struck out a season high 10 batters, while walking just 1 batter. I sure hope there were some scouts at this game watching Leake deal. If this somehow ends up being Mike’s last start as a Red, it was a pleasure watching him pitch. When Leake is on his game, it is really awesome to watch. He can paint the corners, and work his pitches all over the zone with the best of them.

Positives

Jay Bruce hit his 13th home run of the season tonight, and also doubled. Don’t look now, but Bruce now has a .798 OPS. The other Nick here at RN wrote a nice piece today about how good Jay Bruce has been recently, and his possible trade value.

Marlon Byrd extended his hitting streak to 13 games.

Eugenio Suarez made a nice play in this game, ranging to his right and making a tough throw. There was a runner on third with 2 outs, so that saved a run.

Aroldis Chapman did his thing in the 9th inning. The Marlins broadcasters said the hit Adeiny Hechavarria had off Chapman might have been the fastest pitch ever recorded in the MLB that resulted in a hit (103 MPH). They thought the previous fastest ever was by Bryce Harper off Chapman at 102 MPH.

Negatives

Johnny Cueto lost out in the “final vote,” finishing second behind Cardinals SP Carlos Martinez. It is a shame Cueto won’t get a chance to pitch (or at least tip his cap) to the home crowd in the ASG. It is kinda how the Reds season has gone though. They wait to trade Cueto just so he can pitch in the ASG in front of the home crowd, and then he doesn’t even make it. The Reds need to trade Cueto ASAP though. I am about to have a heart-attack waiting, hoping, and praying that he doesn’t get hurt. Every day that goes by you are risking more and more.

Not so random thoughts…………

Yorman Rodriguez has still yet to appear since being called up on Monday. I don’t really understand why the Reds would call him up just to let him ride the pine.

The Reds offense has been pretty bad of late, scoring just 1 run over the last two games. Hopefully they are saving up all the offense for tomorrow against Mat Latos. It would be pretty great to see the guys light him up after the comments he made after being traded.

I was watching the Marlins broadcasters tonight, and they started comparing Phillips and Morgan. They basically implied that Phillips wasn’t too far off from Morgan because of his AVG and RBI totals. So stupidity doesn’t just stop with the Reds broadcasters apparently. For those wondering, Morgan posted 57.2 fWAR in his eight seasons with the Reds (1972-1979), which was by far the most in the MLB. Phillips has accumulated a 29.2 fWAR into his tenth season with the Reds. While that is a very good total for Phillips, it is just a little shy of Morgan.

Up Next:

The Reds will face Mat Latos for the first time since being traded. It was looking like a really intriguing matchup, as Anthony DeSclafani (the guy the Reds got for Latos) was supposed to pitch tomorrow. However, DeSclafani was scratched because of a strained gluteal muscle. Raisel Iglesias will be making the start instead, his first start since returning from the DL. I will have more on this matchup tomorrow at 2:00pm on the game thread.

Reds at Marlins
Saturday, 4:10
TV: FS-Ohio
Raisel Iglesias (4 GS, 5.11 ERA, 2.91 FIP) vs Mat Latos (14 GS, 4.90 ERA, 3.50 FIP)

38 Responses

  1. Evan armstrong

    I still say that you unless blown away with a deal similar to what the Cubs got from the A’s last year that Bob won’t approve a deal and in fact will do whatever possible to resign Cuteo.

    • msanmoore

      $30M per year really isn’t possible and that’s what Cueto is going to get. One of the feeds tonight was comparing Leake’s value to Rick Porcello saying Leake is a much better pitcher.

      No, Johnny’s gone either in July or this winter.

      • Evan armstrong

        That amount would be more then any pitcher…don’t see him getting that much. I could see between 20-25 maybe. I could see Bob offer him say six years at around 120-130 million.

      • tct

        Unless Johnny has a serious injury between now and the end of the season, 6 years 120 mil won’t even be enough to get a seat at the table, much less land him.

        Looking at some of the free agent deals over the last couple years, anything less than 6/150 would be an insult, actually. And I think there is a decent chance he gets to 200 million. It’s just a horrible idea for the Reds. They would be better off literally giving him away for free rather than sign him to that kind of deal.

      • msanmoore

        Kershaw at $32M, Verlander at $28M. Lee, Greinke and King Felix all at $25M. Very thin class this year and, as TCT said, unless JC has a serious injury, he’s set up well to make a haul. So is David Price. Just watch the numbers balloon.

  2. Evan armstrong

    Does anyone know how MLB chooses who plays in the futures game.

  3. msanmoore

    Pulled a butt muscle … well that sums up most of our season. Nice work by Leake tonight. Still wondering if we’ll actually see Cueto Sunday or if they “rest him” …

  4. B-town Fan

    Latos hit a ball off his foot in batting practice and won’t pitch tomorrow either. So it’s Iglesias vs TBA

  5. Gaffer

    Nick what’s your assessment of YRod after his 5 days on the Reds?

  6. Adam S.

    I don’t want to trade cueto because I font think they will get anything good for him.

    • tct

      I don’t want to trade Cueto because I think that would be a form of human trafficking.

      • RedAlert

        I don’t want to trade cueto so the Reds can have $400 million tied up between 2 players 😉

  7. Carl Sayre

    I will say this Cueto and Leake sure did show the other clubs their best side. The two of them trying to increase their trade value. Tongue only slightly in cheek I know clubs have been watching and are well aware of the abilities and shortcomings of both but when the times come.the last impression may be just enough to seal it.

    • Tom Gray

      Still 3 Month FA rentals. Both are fine P but will only bring MiLB prospect(s) as rental fee.

      But better than nothing.

  8. Indy Red Man

    When and where did Leake develop this 91 mph cutter that breaks 2 feet? He’s either lights out or just giving up batting practice? I haven’t looked but his era is prob still north of 4 which is fairly bad in todays shutout-a-rama baseball. What would the Reds have to pay if they kept him?

  9. ohiojimw

    Leake could be pitching his way into an extension with the Reds. They are going to need an innings eater anchor for 2016, it might as well be a known quantity such as Leake versus a pig in a poke.

    As, I’ve said previously, it makes sense that the Reds internal politics might dictate they not do a deal with Leake until Cueto is resolved. Leake might well prefer to avoid this FA class where he figures to be a second tier guy at best. He is of an age and the type of stuff pitcher where it would seem to be a reasonable risk to go as short as 4 years now and look for a similar length deal down the road at age 31/32 when going rates figure to be higher.

    • Steve Mancuso

      Unfortunately, I think it may be working the other way. The only way it makes sense to extend Leake is for one season. He won’t be one of the best five starters in the organization by 2017 (maybe even by 2016). But as you suggest, he may have value as an innings eater. But the better season that he has, the more likely a team will give him a decent 3-4 year contract, which will price him out of what the Reds should be considering for him. Not that Leake isn’t worth it, but just that the Reds don’t really have a need for it and shouldn’t pay $50 million over 3 years to keep him.

      • Nick Kirby

        Steve, you think there is anyway if the Reds were to not trade Leake and just tried to take the comp pick that Leake would just accept the qualifying offer (that would be really bad for the Reds)? I could see Leake taking the $15-16 million (whatever number it is now) and trying to have a better 2016 to sign a long term contract then.

      • Steve Mancuso

        Maybe. It depends on the rest of Leake’s season. It makes sense for the Reds to give him a QO since a one-year contract could be a perfect fit for the Reds needs, even if $16 million is a little bit of an overpay for Leake. But a couple offers of $45-50 million over 3 years for Leake would make Leake jump. He would reason that those three years would let him build up his resumé for another contract, plus pocket the amount above the QO. That’s why I think the better he pitches, the less likely he’ll resign with the Reds (take the QO). He might even prefer a $30 million/2 year deal to a QO.

        The argument against giving Leake is QO is the risk that he’ll say “yes” and the $16 million will prevent the Reds from doing much else in the free agent market.

        If the Reds go with: Bailey, Lorenzen, DeSclafani, Stevenson and Iglesias/Cingrani/Moscot, where would Leake fit, given the payroll budget?

      • greenmtred

        I understand that I’m in the minority here, but I’m not confident that the pitchers the Reds will have left after Cueto and Leake are gone are good enough to make the team a contender. Yes, they’re young and, yes, they all have some upside, but which of them look like legit #1 or #2 starters, even two or three years down the road?

      • Steve Mancuso

        I’m not confident either. There’s a ways to go before decisions need to be made, but the Reds might need to sign a one-year contract with a SP (a decent pitcher, not Jason Marquis). And we don’t know what the team will get back for Cueto. If Jocketty’s past tendencies are an indication, there’s a good chance he’ll want a pitcher back in return. Also, the Leake trade might net a pitcher.

        The market for Cueto is incredibly strong and getting more so. If Jocketty doesn’t screw it up, the Reds could net a really good player or two.

  10. tct

    It’s hard to complain about the season Todd Frazier is having. But there is a worrying trend showing itself. In April and May he had 21 walks in 207 PA. Since the beginning of June, he’s only walked 3 times in 159 PA. In percentage form:

    April. 13% walk rate
    May. 8%
    June. 2%
    July 0%

    He still produced in June, putting up a 147 wRC+. But his OBP was only .310. And he has really struggled in the first 8 games of July. But it will be really hard to keep up above average production if the walk rate doesn’t go back up.

  11. Michael J Hampton

    Regarding Yorman Rodriguez, Price is a master at setting young players up for failure. He refuses to use them when they are brought up. See Soto and Lutz last year. When he finally does occasionally “give them an opportunity” they are so rusty from sitting on the bench, they can’t find home plate. He prefers to play washed up gritty veterans. I suppose we will be able to add Rodriguez to the list of young players that Price has allowed to waste away. I do no know why the Reds bring these young guys up to destroy their confidence.

  12. Earl Nash

    I know I can’t be the only Red fan that looks at Dee Gordon’s current hitting game and really wishes Billy Hamilton could pick up a few tips. Gordon was a thin hit guy when he came up with LA but really looks like he has gotten good at putting the ball in play and letting his legs do the work now.

    Reds would be driving in all sorts of runs if they could get a just a couple more baserunners a game.

    • Indy Red Man

      Hamilton is so good defensively in CF that they’re going to stick with him a while. He needs to get on top of the ball more like that high chopper the other night and of course gain some more muscle. The Reds pitchers can actually hit pretty well so 9th isn’t a bad place for him to develop. I liked Stubbs but I remember him hacking at 2-0 pitches all the time under Dusty. Hamilton doesn’t swing at 2-0….he has the right mindset just bad fundamentals at this point. Wasn’t it vs Garrett Cole recently where he started off the game with a 8 or 9 pitch walk?

    • PARedsfan

      Billy is only in his sophomore season…and while I haven’t looked up the numbers on Gordon’s sophomore season, I wouldn’t be surprised if they were somewhat similar.

      • sunbreakthedawn

        I looked up this comparison over at Baseball Reference. Dee Gordon’s second year in the big leagues 2012, his age 23 season, he slashed .228/.280/.281 with a .561 ops over 330 PA. The main difference in their early careers is PA.BH has more than double than Gordon had at the same time. Gordon has increased his OPS every year after the 2012 season. If BH can do the same he’ll be a threat.