The Reds (34-38) dropped the series opener to the Mets last night behind their ace and now watch as rookie Michael Lorenzen takes on one part of the two-headed Mets’ ace that is Harvey and DeGrom. The Mets, similar to the Reds, are looking to get through the season with a rotation loaded with young, unconditioned arms. Yesterday, they announced that to rectify that problem, the team would be using a six-man rotation for the near future.
All stats are 2015 actuals:
If you just looked at Michael Lorenzen’s traditional numbers (3-2, 3.56 ERA), you would think he was having a spectacular rookie campaign. Expand the view out to the more precise stats though (5.62 FIP, -0.4 WAR), and Lorenzen’s season more closely resembles a dumpster fire. So which is it? Well, neither. The traditional numbers are skewed as they almost always are but in this instance, so are the advanced stats. Lorenzen’s 12.2% walk rate compared to just a 14.8% K rate is the culprit. Advanced stats see him putting runners on base and completely relying on his defense to get out of those jams, i.e. his advanced stats go through the roof. What that theory doesn’t take into account is the skill that is pitching to contact. Lorenzen has not yet proved to be an effective strikeout pitcher, but he sure can pitch to contact to get guys out and minimize damage. Walks will haunt, just not quite yet.
He shares a name with Two-Face, but the city has dubbed him their Batman. For good reason too, over 50 career starts, Harvey has posted a 2.61 ERA and a 2.62 FIP. He’s struck out 354 and has a WHIP of 0.99. Harvey is indeed the Real Deal, and Tommy John hasn’t seemed to have hampered him much at all. Harvey’s bounced back from the surgery better than most pitchers are before, and his consistency has not waned as he has had only one start of less than 6.0 innings this entire season.
With Skip Schumaker in CF and Marlon Byrd in LF in today’s Reds’ lineup, Jay Bruce has been spotted conferring with Billy Hamilton on the best way to cover the entire outfield by yourself. Ivan DeJesus gets the start at short over the defensively struggling Eugenio Suarez:
The Mets roll with the same lineup as last night:
MEET THE METS
When I posted the lineup yesterday, I had the thought of, “Wow, I only know like three names in the entire Mets lineup.” So today, here is a primer for the lesser known names on the 2015 Mets:
Juan Lagares is a 26-year old in his third year with the Mets. In his first two seasons, he was worth a 3.0 WAR and a 4.0 WAR but has been just barely over replacement level this year. Where he made up for his weak bat in the past was his spectacular defense (it earned him a five year contract), but this year even that has been just average.
Kevin Plawecki is the Mets touted rookie catcher who’s been filling in for the injured Travis d’Arnaud and had the grave misfortune of debuting the same day as Addison Russell and Carlos Rodon. The 40th ranked prospect according to Fangraphs coming into the season, Plawecki is known as a decent defensive catcher but a big bat. So far, the bat hasn’t lived up to its hype, as Plawecki has hit .227/.273/.313 through 41 games. With d’Arnaud hurt again, Plawecki is here to stay.
Dilson Herrera, the other Mets’ rookie who got his first cup of tea in 2014, was the 7th best prospect in the Mets’ system coming into 2015 according to Keith Law, and “just missed” Law’s top 100. Herrera has now made two stints in the big leagues this season, once in early May and then from mid-June until now. Another weak bat, good glove kind of player, Herrera earns his keep in the field but has the tools for a Dee Gordon-esque batting renaissance in the next couple of years.
IGLESIAS ON THE WAY BACK
#Reds Raisel Iglesias threw 45 pitches in 3rd bullpen. will go on rehab assignment this week
— C. Trent Rosecrans (@ctrent) June 27, 2015
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE >> EVERYONE ELSE
The #Reds 16 wins since their 9-game skid are 3rd most in the NL behind the Cards and Bucs.
— Jamie Ramsey (@Jamieblog) June 27, 2015
— Redleg Nation (@redlegnation) June 27, 2015
STANTON OUT 4-6 WEEKS
Source: Stanton being re-evaluated today. Hope is that break is clean and that absence will be closer to four weeks than six. More later.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) June 27, 2015
— robneyer (@robneyer) June 27, 2015
In news that likely breaks the hearts of baseball fans everywhere, Giancarlo Stanton is projected to miss the next 4-6 weeks with a broken left hand. The injury would prevent him from playing in the All Star Game or, more importantly, participating in the Home Run Derby. I thought maybe we would see a ball clear the riverboat, but now that hope is no longer. I doubt Thom understands my sadness.
I wish someone had warned me not to look the #Reds lineup. I have work I need to get done today before the game.
— Steve Mancuso (@spmancuso) June 27, 2015
The Reds’ defense today seems to be a case study in just how many runs can we give up to a weak hitting team. With Lorenzen’s reliance on his defense, my guess is going to be upwards of five. But we do have eight guys down in the bullpen so this is exactly how management wants this game to go. My brain hurts.
VOTE SUPER TODD