Reds blow a 6-1 lead to the Padres

The Reds got off to a big start by scoring three times in the first inning, and were able to build a 6-1 lead. Michael Lorenzen allowed 3 runs over 6.0 innings, and then handed the ball off to the bullpen. Nothing could go wrong, right?

In the 7th inning, Ryan Mattheus loaded the bases, and the Reds brought in Tony Cingrani. Former Red, Yonder Alonso drilled a 3-2 pitch into the right field seats for a game tying grand slam. Jumbo Diaz then allowed two more runs in the 8th inning, to complete the collapse. The Reds would threaten in the 9th (Bruce just missed a game tying 2-run homer), and even had the winning run at the plate, but Craig Kimbrel was able to strike out Zack Cozart to end the game.

After the first out of the 7th inning, the Reds had a 97.5% chance of winning this game. The bullpen really squandered a good performance from the offense. All nine of the Reds starters reached base with a hit or walk. Todd Frazier lead the way with three hits, and Joey Votto also contributed by reaching base four times.

Biggest Play of the Game

According to Fangraphs WPA statistic (winning percentage added), the most important play of the game was Tony Cingrani allowing a grand slam to Yonder Alonso in the 7th inning, tying the game at 7. That play decreased the Reds chances of winning by 36.8% (fromn 92.9% to 56.1%).

Other important plays (+/- indicates how much each play increased or decreased the Reds chances of winning):

• +15.8% – 1st inning: Frazier 2-RBI double with 0 outs. Reds lead 2-0.
• +10.3% – 2nd inning: Lorenzen gets Solarte to fly out. 2 outs, runners on 2nd & 3rd. Reds lead 3-0.
• -35.4% – 8th inning: Diaz allows a 2-RBI double to Kemp with 2 outs. Padres lead 9-7.
• -14.0% – 8th inning: Diaz allows a leadoff double to Almonte. 7-7.

Player of the Game

Yonder Alonso: 3 for 5, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 0.40 WPA

Matt Kemp did have 5 RBI’s and a higher WPA (0.48), but when a former Red hits a game tying grand slam against them, he pretty much has to be here. That had to feel really good for old Yonder.

Positives

First inning success. The Reds scored three runs in the first inning. Phillips singled, Votto walked, Frazier doubled, Bruce hit a long sac fly, Pena doubled. This is just another example of why it is important to stack your best hitters at the top of the lineup. Andrew Cashner was struggling to find his command early, and either couldn’t find the strike zone, or was leaving it over the plate. When you have bad hitters at the top of your lineup (like, sadly Billy Hamilton at this point in his career), you are making it easier on the pitcher to find “his stuff” early.

#Reds 3-run first matches their season high for runs scored in the 1st. Scored 3 in the first on 4/13 vs the Cubs.

— Joel Luckhaupt (@jluckhaupt) June 6, 2015

Zack Cozart hit his 7th home run of the season. Cozart is now on pace to hit 21 HR. That is a pretty big improvement from just 4 long balls last season. It is looking more and more like 2014 was simply an anomaly. Cozart hit 15 HR in 2012, and 12 HR in 2013. As I have said before, if Cozart can put up an OPS anywhere north of .700, he is a legitimate top 5 SS in the MLB when you add in his defense. Cozart currently has a .745 OPS.

Michael Lorenzen pitched pretty well. He got a nice lead early, and didn’t give the Padres a whole lot back. There is certainly some room for improvement though for Lorenzen, as he has a 5.75 FIP. Much of this is due to his very high 5.17 BB/9 (MLB average is 2.90). All in all though, Lorenzen has certainly showed a lot of promise for a guy who is only in his third professional season. This dude can also hit. Lorenzen went 2 for 3 on the day.

Joey Votto had a nice day, reaching base four times (3 walks). Votto now has a cool 150 wRC+ after today’s game.

Votto has now reached base safely in 15 games, tying a season high. #Reds lead 3-0 to the 3rd.

— Paul Taylor (@PTRadio) June 6, 2015

Will Venable had a rough day in CF. He got fooled twice on back-to-back plays on balls in the 4th inning, by going in on the ball, when he should have retreated. The result was two gift runs on a gift triple to Joey Votto, and a gift double to Frazier.

Negatives

Tony Cingrani was brought into the mess created by Ryan Mattheus, and he couldn’t get out of it. Cingrani allowed a grand slam to Yonder Alonso, which tied the game at 7. But it somehow got worse. After Cingrani walked the next batter, Price went out to the mound, and Cingrani went to hand him the ball. The problem was that Price wasn’t taking Cingrani out of the game. Price gave Cingrani a nice earful on the mound. I am not a huge Bryan Price fan, but I have no problem with this.

You certainly don’t want your pitcher giving up, which is what it looked Cingrani had done. The Reds need to figure this Cingrani thing out though. He is clearly a talented pitcher, but this whole war between him and management needs to be fixed. It is hard to blame the guy for being upset, when he lost his spot in the rotation to a guy who was just DFA’d a couple days ago.

Fired up Bryan Price #Reds https://t.co/gQFMLe6Lz0

— Lance McAlister (@LanceMcAlister) June 6, 2015

Skip. Schumaker. The Reds are in a self-proclaimed “youth movement” by Bryan Price. Yet, somehow, someway, the Reds are continuing to play Skip Schumaker in LF everyday. The Reds gritty, veteran leader got thrown out in the first inning trying to steal second base with TWO OUTS AND THE PITCHER AT THE PLATE! But….that was just the warming up act for what came next. I’ll let you watch below, because words can’t really describe this fielding from a player with -60 career Defensive Runs Saved.

Walks will haunt. Diaz and Mattheus both allowed two walks in their single innings of relief.

Bryan Price decided it would be a good idea to let Jumbo Diaz stay on the mound after walking two batters and loading the bases. Aroldis Chapman (who didn’t pitch yesterday) apparently was better suited to face the Padres bottom of the order in the 9th, rather than the heart of the order in the 8th. There is no point in saving a closer for a save situation that will not be there if you don’t get through the 8th.

Not so random thoughts…………………

I’ve watched the Padres broadcast the last two nights. Dick Enberg, the Padres play-by-play announcer is one of the absolute best. He is no Vin Scully (no one is), but he is definitely one of the top five baseball announcers. I wish that the MLB would use guys like Enberg or Scully in the playoffs.

American Pharoah winning the Triple Crown was pretty cool. It helped me forget just how terrible my favorite baseball teams was for a few minutes.

Around the NL Central

Cubs: Won 4-2 today at Washington. Jason Hammel pitched 8.0 innings, allowing just 2 runs, while striking out 7. Dexter Fowler and Anthony Rizzo both had RBI hits in the 5th inning, breaking a 1-1 tie.

Brewers: Won 4-2 today at Minnesota. Carlos Gomez went 4 for 4 with 3 RBI, and broke a 1-1 tie in the 7th inning, with a 2-RBI double. Matt Garza went 7.0 innings, allowing just 1 ER with 0 BB and 3 K.

Pirates: Play tonight at 7:10 at Atlanta. The Pirates will send Jeff Locke to the mound (10 GS, 5.34 ERA, 4.20 FIP) to face Julio Teheran (4.87 ERA, 5.54 FIP). The game will be on FOX Saturday Night Baseball.

Cardinals: Play tonight at 10:10 at the Dodgers. Jamie Garcia (3 GS, 2.70 ERA, 3.97 FIP) will have a tough test in his fourth start of 2015, as he will face off against 3-time Cy Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw (11 GS, 3.73 ERA, 2.67 FIP). The game will be on the MLB Network.

Up Next:

Padres at Reds
1:10, Sunday
FSN-Ohio (MLB.tv Free Game of the Day)
Odrisamer Despaigne (7 GS, 4.56 ERA, 4.66 FIP) vs Johnny Cueto (10 GS, 2.90 ERA, 3.37 FIP)

All statistics are used courtesy of Fangraphs, ESPN Stats and Info, and Baseball-Reference (including Baseball-Reference Play Index). All photos are used courtesy of the Cincinnati Enquirer, and are used by permission.