The Cubs top young prospect Addison Russell hit a three run double with two outs in the 5th inning, to lead the Cubs to a 5-2 win over the Reds. Today was just the fifth game in Russell’s young MLB career. The Cubs swept the Reds in the short two game series, and are now 4-1 against the Reds in 2015.

Cubs starter Jake Arrieta retired the first 11 batters he faced, but then gave up a solo home run to Todd Frazier. Reds starter Anthony DeSclafani only gave up 1 earned run in five innings, but suffered the loss.

Final R H E
 Cincinnati Reds (8-10)  5 6 0
 Chicago Cubs (10-7)  2 6 2
W: Arrieta (3-1) L: DeSclafani (2-1) S: Rondon (4)
FanGraphs Win Probability | Box Score | Game Thread

Cubs Reds

Biggest Play of the Game

According to Fangraphs WPA statistic (winning percentage added), the most important play of the game was Addison Russell’s 3-RBI double in the 4th inning off Anthony DeSclafani. That gave the Cubs a 5-1 lead, and increased the Cubs chances of winning by 16.4% (from 77.8% to 94.2%).

Other important plays (+/- indicates how much each play increased or decreased the Reds chances of winning):

  • +8.6%: 5th inning: Mesoraco draws a walk from Arrieta. Bases loaded, 0 outs. Cubs lead 5-1.
  • +5.5%: 5th inning: Pena draws a walk from Arrieta. Runners on 1st and 2nd, 0 outs. Cubs lead 5-1.
  • +5.2%: 4th inning: DeSclafani strikes out Arrieta with the bases loaded. 2 outs. Cubs lead 1-0.
  • -12.4%: 2nd inning: Montero solo home run with 1 outs. Cubs lead 1-0.
  • -8.8%: 5th inning: Frazier fouled out with the bases loaded. 2 outs, Cubs lead 5-2.
  • -8.5%: 5th inning: Phillips grounded into a FC with the bases loaded to end the inning. Cubs lead 5-2.
  • -6.6%: 4th inning: Frazier error allows Bryant to reach 1st base. Runners on 1st & 3rd, 0 outs. Cubs lead 1-0.

Player of the Game

Jake Arrieta: 6.0 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 6 K, 0.16 WPA


Todd Frazier hit his 5th home run of the season in the 4th inning. Frazier’s homer ended Jake Arrieta’s perfect game at the time.

Anthony DeSclafani had a pretty good line on the afternoon (5.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K), but gave up an “unearned” three run double to Addison Russell after a Frazier error. It certainly wasn’t DeSclafani’s best outing by any means, but he battled pretty well on the mound. All in all, I think it was another solid step forward for the Reds young SP. I think we all would have gladly taken the four starts he has given us before the season started. DeSclafani’s ERA now sits at 1.04 on the season.


(Photo: David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports)

Tony Cingrani pitched for the first time since April 14th today, and he did not disappoint. Cingrani pitched a perfect two innings, while striking out two batters. It is simply silly to have this guy sitting on the bench while guys like Gregg keep getting run out there. #FreeCingrani

Devin Mesoraco pinch-hit in the 5th inning, and drew a four pitch walk. While the Reds handling of Mesoraco has certainly been frustrating, it was good to see him step up to the plate and give a professional at-bat. It is something the Reds could use a lot more of. ICYMI, Steve Mancuso wrote about Mesoraco earlier this week.


The Reds offense just isn’t very good without Mesoraco or Bruce. The lineup the Reds put out today only features three projected above average hitters in 2015, and one of those is Marlon Byrd (who likely won’t end up an above average hitter). When you put that offense up against one of the best pitchers in the NL, it usually is not going to end up well. It didn’t today.

The plate discipline that some of the Reds hitters show is extremely frustrating to watch. Take for example an at-bat in the 4th inning by Brennan Boesch. After getting ahead in the count 2-0 (on pitches wayyyyyyy out of the zone), Boesch hacked at a pitch out of the strike zone. This was just one of the many examples of poor plate discipline we have seen from this team.


Marlon Byrd now has 21 strikeouts and 0 walks. On a positive note, Byrd did get to a 3-ball count for just the second time this season today.

The Reds clean up hitter, Brandon Phillips has 0 extra base hits through 69 plate appearances this season (to go along with 2 walks). He has a .269 SLG. For comparison, Mike Leake has a career .316 SLG.

Kevin Gregg pitched a scoreless 6th inning, which probably bought him another two months in the Reds bullpen. Gregg lowered his ERA from 10.29 to 9.00.

Not so random thoughts…….

Our good ole’ friend Thom Brennaman had to harp on Votto for walking with runners on second and third in the 5th inning. Thom said “Votto may have walked, but he had some hit-able pitches.” I am so tired of the Bennaman’s and their ridiculous hate of the Reds best player.

Around the NL Central

There are reports out that Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright is out for the season. Wainwright suffered an Achilles injury while batting on Saturday. We will have more about the effect this will have on the NL Central race tomorrow in Central Intelligence.

The Cardinals currently lead the Brewers 4-2 in the 5th inning. The Pirates are about to get underway in Arizona against the Diamondbacks.

Up Next:

Reds will begin a three game series against the Brewers (3-15) to finish up the homestand tomorrow.

7:10 PM, Fox Sports Ohio

Greg Dafler will have a full preview of the Reds-Brewers tomorrow at 5:00pm.