Homer Bailey allowed just two runs in 5.2 innings, and Marlon Byrd hit his first home run as a Red. It wasn’t enough though, as Kevin Gregg allowed the go ahead run in the 7th inning, and the Reds fell 4-2 to the Brewers. The Reds were still able to take 3 of 4 against the Brewers. The Brewers ended an 8-game losing streak, while the Reds fell back to .500 at 8-8 on the season.

Final R H E
 Cincinnati Reds (8-8) 2 4 1
 Milwaukee Brewers (3-13) 4 10 0
W: Lohse (1-3) L: Gregg (0-2) S: Rodriguez (2)
FanGraphs Win Probability | Box Score | Game Thread

WPA 4-23

Biggest Play of the Game

According to Fangraphs WPA statistic (winning percentage added), the most important play of the game was Marlon Byrd’s 2-run home run in the 5th inning. That gave the Reds a 2-1 lead, and increased the Reds chances of winning by 27.4%.

Other important plays (+/- indicates how much each play increased or decreased the Reds chances of winning):

  • -21.7% – 7th inning: Jean Segura RBI single off Kevin Gregg with 2 outs. Brewers lead 3-2.
  • -16.5% – 5th inning: Aramis Ramirez solo home run off Homer Bailey with 0 outs. Game tied at 2.
  • -11.4% – 2nd inning: Adam Lind solo home run off Homer Bailey with 0 outs. Brewers lead 1-0.
  • -9.6% – 4th inning: Zack Cozart grounded into a double play. 2 outs. Brewers lead 1-0.

Player of the Game

Kyle Lohse: 7.0 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K


Marlon Byrd hit his first home run as a member of the Cincinnati Reds in the top of the 5th inning off Kyle Lohse. Byrd is off to a miserable start for the Reds. Byrd entered Thursday dead last in the MLB in fWAR (-0.8). Byrd has been a “free swinger” to say the least. Byrd entered Thursday with the highest swing percentage in the MLB at 64.0%. Anyways, it was good to see Byrd hit one out of the park. The Reds will need a lot more of that this season, especially since he has yet to reach base via a walk this year.


Homer Bailey’s velocity was way down today. His fastball only ranged from 89 to 92 MPH. Last season, Bailey’s average fastball velocity was 94.3 MPH (the highest of his career). The last batter Bailey faced, his velocity was 85, 82, 87, and 87. It was a good decision for Price to take him out of the game. I wouldn’t be too overly concerned about Bailey just yet. Brooks Baseball had Bailey’s average fastball velocity at 93.5 MPH on Saturday in St. Louis. There is always a chance that the Brewers gun was off. I actually recall hearing the Brewers announcers saying the gun was messed up last night.

Bryan Price decided that Kevin Gregg was the best guy to come in the sixth inning with two on and two outs. Gregg was able to get out of that jam, but Price decided he wanted to roll the dice even more. Gregg pitched the 7th inning, and after allowing a four pitch leadoff walk to Logan Schafer (a guy with a .601 career OPS), he eventually allowed the go ahead run to score. Why on earth Gregg was given the opportunity to get four outs in a tie game, with a relatively fresh bullpen, is simply amazing. Aroldis Chapman hasn’t been given that opportunity in 2015.

Outside of Marlon Byrd’s 2-run homer, the Reds Offense was non-existent. The Reds collected just 4 hits on the afternoon, and 1 walk. The Reds lineup without Frazier and Mesoraco just really just isn’t very good.

Bryan Price decided to bat Zack Cozart second, and move Votto to the #3 spot (Frazier had the day off). Zack Cozart is off to a tremendous start (leads all MLB SS in fWAR, wRC+, OPS, and SLG). However, those stats only included 15 games. Cozart has a career .284 OBP. It is simply silly to bat him in the #2 spot, and give him potentially more trips to the plate than Joey Votto. Also, it seems like Hamilton and Votto have a good vibe hitting back to back, and Votto has even said he likes hitting behind Hamilton. I just don’t understand why Price would mess with that.

Billy Hamilton was caught stealing for the first time this season in the 6th inning. It was the first time a Reds player was caught stealing in 2015. They were 17 for 17.

Not so random thoughts…….

Where is Tony Cingrani?

Skip Schumaker leadoff the 9th inning (batting in the pitchers spot) while Todd Frazier and Devin Mesoraco sat on the bench.

Around the NL Central

Pirates beat the Cubs 5-4. Gregory Polanco lead the Pirates with three hits.

Cardinals up 1-0 on the Nationals early

Up Next:

Reds begin a three game series in Cincinnati against the Cubs tomorrow night:

7:10 PM, FSN-Ohio

Mike Leake (0-1, 3.92 ERA) vs Jon Lester (0-2, 6.89 ERA).