This is the post where I (foolishly) say how many games I think the Reds will win this year. Pity me.

Last year, though you may have blotted it from your memory, the Reds won 76 games. That’s not good. Our old friend Pythagoras thinks they should have on 79. That’s a little better, but still pretty meh. Anyway, we’ll start with that as our base. 79 wins is not bad when you consider the list of players who spent significant time on the DL. Just to remind you, they included: Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Devin Mesoraco, Mat Latos, Homer Bailey, Brandon Phillips, and Aroldis Chapman. That’s a lot of production on the bench. It’s also why I’m at least a little optimistic.

You see, the thing about this team is that there are good players. And if they are healthy, they really good compete. But, well, you know…

So anyway, looking at my projections, if everyone is perfectly healthy, the Reds are 10 or 11 wins better than they were last year. That puts them around 90 wins. I think we’d all agree that, assuming no one hits the DL at all, that isn’t an outrageous number. But, with the possible exception of Chapman, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see any of the players listed above get hurt again. And you can add Johnny Cueto, Marlon Byrd (he’s old), and maybe one or two others to the list of potential injury candidates.

So what is it Linden? How much you think they’ll do.

I’m going with 81 wins. That’s my prediction. A .500 ball club. Basically, I’m docking them nine wins of injury. That’s just a guess, but I think it’s a solid guess. Maybe I’ma little optimistic. But I’m a fan. I’m allowed to be.

I have a hard time imaging that this team is worse than it was last year. There’s too much talent and too much went wrong. Similarly, I can’t predict the year when everything goes right. Though both are possible. This is a strange team, though. I can imagine them winning 70 and I can imagine them winning 90.

So, who knows. We’ll see. Stick around and watch.