I’m not feeling wordy today, so I’m going to keep this simple.
In the wake of Devin Mesoraco’s extension, I’ve seen a lot of rumblings that Todd Frazier should also be extended. That, indeed, the Reds have tried to extend him. I’m not so sure that’s a good idea, and let me tell you why: Two years and four months.
Todd Frazier, you see, is two years and four months older than Devin Mesoraco. When Mesoraco’s extension comes to an end, he will be one year and four months younger than Todd Frazier will be when he becomes a free agent.
Think about that for a moment. Using the typical July 1cut off date, Mesoraco’s first year after his extension will be his age-31 season. Todd Frazier’s first shot at free agency will come when he is entering his age-32 season.
Despite his early struggles, Mesoraco has actually compiled more WAR to this point in his career than Frazier had at the same age. Mesoraco has not entered his decline phase, yet. Frazier either is entering it right now or will enter it in the next few years. Any extension the Reds give Frazier is not being given to the player about to enter his age-29 season. It is being given to the player about to enter his age-32 season.
Frazier is everybody’s favorite player. He’s an excellent candidate to extend where personality is concerned, but purely in baseball terms, it doesn’t make a lot of sense. This is especially true if the reports that the Reds and Frazier are pretty far apart prove to be true. Given that the team controls Frazier for three more years, which will take him through the end of his prime, there is no reason to give him an especially lucrative extension.