A trade of Jay Bruce is highly unlikely according to one of C. Trent Rosecrans’ trusted sources. (C. Trent Rosecrans, Cincinnati Enquirer) CTR: “The reason I don’t believe is first Castellini, but secondly, I don’t think hey’d get enough for Bruce at this point to make it worth while — unless they really believe last year was the future, not an aberration. I’m not sure anyone believes that. However, even if you believe he’ll bounce back, those other teams aren’t going to pay the price of the pre-2014 Bruce for the post-2014 Bruce. It’s simple economics, you don’t sell low. Selling Bruce right now would be selling low.”

Hoarding pitching is so 2005. Today, the currency of baseball is right handed hitting. (Dave Cameron, FanGraphs) Cameron: “10 years ago, everyone wanted young pitching. It was the considered the currency of baseball, the thing you could always trade if you needed to acquire something else. But these days, random kids on the street can throw 100 mph, the strike zone is gigantic, and preventing runs is now the easy part of the game. What everyone wants now is offense, and seemingly, offense in the form of good right-handed hitters.” Just hope the GM of your favorite team isn’t still drawing lessons from a decade ago. Of course, you already knew that.

The 1990 World Series championship, Junior’s return, Jay Bruce’s walk-off homer and various Reds enshrined in the HOF make the Top 25 Cincinnati sports events in the past 25 years. (John Erardi, Cincinnati Enquirer) Erardi: “Here are 25 celebratory moments in the past 25 years of Greater Cincinnati sports. It wasn’t necessarily always the biggest story we wanted; it was the most inspirational and aspirational.”

Need gift suggestions for the Reds fan in your life (including yourself)? Here are ten suggestions. (Jamey Ramsey, Reds) “1. “Nasty Boys” Pick-6 Plan: Guarantee the new “Nasty Boys” triple bobblehead featuring 1990 relief pitchers Norm Charlton, Rob Dibble and Randy Myers when you buy the Nasty Boys Pick-6 plan, presented by McDonald’s. This six-game ticket plan includes the Sat., April 25 Reds vs. Cubs game (Nasty Boys bobblehead night), six free McDonald’s Extra Value Meals® and pick five additional regular season home games of your choice, exclusions apply. The Nasty Boys Pick-6 plan will go on sale Monday, Dec.1st:http://www.reds.com/pick6 or (513) 765-7500.”

35 Responses

  1. charlottencredsfan

    Rosecrans is the only writer at the Enquirer that knows what is going on with the Reds. Thanks for posting Steve.

  2. vegastypo

    Trent (and some here in previous comments) had me at No. 1. I can’t see the fan inside Castellini trading Bruce.

  3. jessecuster44

    Not really sure that Reds tickets are much of a present right now. Why reward the organization for doing nothing to improve during the past year? Unless you like the bobbleheads.

  4. HELLSBELLS

    Lets think what these reports MEAN, nit what we all prefer. I am not sure the Reds can pay for this team right now (remember Votto money starting to really kick in). I am sure they have tried to move Latos and Leake. But, I think it is MORE likely they can trade Bruce right now that the picthers.

    This story may mean the dumb signings this team has made have finally caught up to them.

    • Steve Mancuso

      Votto only making $14 million in 2015, which is $3 million less than 2013. The jump in salary isn’t until next year. Same with Homer Bailey, who will make only $10 million this year. Those salary jumps next year are unrelated to the Bruce decision right now. The pitchers all go off the books (unless resigned) next year.

  5. lwblogger2

    Seems like most the commenters at Redlegnation are in a real bad mood and don’t have particularly high hopes for 2015.

    • Tom Reed

      A surprise trade to upgrade the Reds offense could change the mood for 2015.

      • Jim t

        Tom all I want is the team healthy,a bull pen arm and a one year bridge in LF..

    • WVRedlegs

      We aren’t getting enough fiber in our diets, with all the BS that Jocketty is feeding us Reds fans. Too much BS can bring out the surly moods.
      What direction are the Reds headed today? Wait a moment while Jocketty wets his finger and sticks it in the air to see which way the wind is blowing.

      • lwblogger2

        Ha! You assume he checks the wind!!

  6. al

    I just wish we could get a better sense of what the Reds plan is, what their overall strategy is for the offseason.

    To me, there are three ways you can go about trades: 1) Trade the future for the present (prospects for impact players), 2) Trade the present for the future (impact players for prospects), or 3) Trade the present for the present (swap impact players).

    If the Reds are really all in on 2015, then we should be thinking about dealing top prospects to get Justin Upton. If the Reds aren’t all in for 2015, they should be thinking about dealing Cueto, Latos, and Chapman for the biggest haul of prospects they can, to pair with Winker and Stephenson as the new core.

    But somehow, I feel like all we hear about is trading the present for the present, like trading a starter for a bat. But if you only won 74 games last year, I don’t see how that gets you over the hump and into the World Series.

    I don’t think they will trade Bruce, but if they did, I would hope that it would at least be a clear sign that we’re going to rebuild, and that it would be the first of several moves.

    • C-bus Chris 14

      The Reds are officially the worst team in the NL Central and trending down.

      The Cubs are the new Tampa Bay Rays. Great manager. Good front office. Young cheap talent. Stocked farm system.

      St Louis just consistently great. Extremely well-run.

      Pittsburgh very good and trending up.

      Milwaukee stable.

      The Reds? Poor Front Office that is old school dinosaur. Unproven and inexperienced manager at best. Incompetent worst case. Depleted farm system. Dead money, bad contracts on big club. Major League roster littered with combination of Underperforming, aging, injured, overpriced players and poor roster construction.

      • reaganspad

        Why are the Reds trending down for 2015?

        Is somebody else hurt and not available for 2015 that has not been announced?

        Do you anticipate that Mesoraco or Frazier will be worse in 2015?

        Do you anticipate that the runner up rookie of the year will be worse in 2015?

        Latos won’t pitch? Votto will not be back until 2018? Bruce is done? Cueto is not the runner up for the Cy Young?

        Chapman getting hit in the head again at the end of spring training to miss half the season? Or is he going to now try to pitch right handed?

        Seriously, these are not the Paul Householder Reds. those teams won 70 games and were trending downward. They didn’t have Eglasias, Stephenson, Winker and Lorenzen at AAA. Shoot those Reds teams had 1.5 starting pitchers.

        I get that this time of year is a bunch of what have you done for me lately and I love a good trade rumor as much as anyone else.

        But seriously, these Reds are not trending downward. They are a 90-94 win team that was seriously injured last year.

        If everyone is healthy next year, which is far more probable than the rash of injuries that they had last year, this team could win 100+ games.

        LF is a far easier position to fill that #1 starter

  7. lwblogger2

    Cards picked up AAA infielder Ty Kelly from the M’s for a AA starting pitcher with a nice arm and good strikeout rate. Ty Kelly is a former O’s prospect. He’s 26 now so calling him a prospect at this point isn’t very accurate. That said, he’s my kind of hitter. He hits liners and takes more than his share of walks. He had a power explosion last year hitting 15 HR, but one must note that’s in the hitter-friendly PCL. He’s an interesting pickup for them. He plays 3B, 2B, and LF. I actually had forgotten about him. Ty Kelly could provide some good ABs off their bench.

    • ToddAlmighty

      A high OBP OF/3B/2B? Sounds awful. Sure glad the Reds don’t do business like the awful Cards.

      I’d rather have a 34-year-old former Cardinal.

      • earmbrister

        I understand the prevailing thought that all things the Cards front office does are good. Not going to get all that amped about a minor league deal. Everyone PRAISED the Cards for the Peter Bourjos trade last off season. Bet they’d take Freese and Salas back instead. Lackey AND Masterson hardly set the world on fire after the trade deadline this year, yet once again those deals were lauded as great for the Cards.

        We all know what the Reds need this year: improved offense from LF and a cheaper yet better bullpen. Cozart is not the problem, BP isn’t either, and Bruce certainly isn’t the problem. Get healthy (Bruce and Votto are like FA additions), fix LF (if even for 1 or 2 years, Winker is real and will be the answer as early as 2016) , go cheap and young in the bullpen, and go bold (as in Choo bold) IF the opportunity presents itself.

        The glass is half full, though you’d never know it from the suicide hotline here.

      • ToddAlmighty

        Eh, I just know that if the Reds need a utility bench player, they look for a 30+ former Cardinal that can’t hit. (See: Schumaker, Skip and Hannahan, Jack For That) They then play way too much and provide the Reds with negative WAR.

        The Cardinals need a utility bench player and they go get a major league ready 26-year-old who in AAA has had a BB% between like 15% and 20% and EXACTLY a 1:1 BB to K ratio in 841 AAA PA.

        Just saying.. there’s a difference in operational methods. Also in results. I mean, the Reds put 556 AB at .291 OBP leading off last year. Why? Because he’s a fast CF.

        – – –

        Saying Bruce and Votto are like FA additions is the cheapest line in all of sports. Everyone tries to use it, but the fact is. Injuries happen. Next year there will be injuries too, believe it or not. Good teams have the depth to overcome those injuries, bad teams do not and use it as an excuse.

        In 2013 the reason for inaction at the trade deadline was “Oh, we’ll be getting Ludwick and Cueto back, it’ll be like trading for a #1 pitcher and a LF.”

        Then the 2013-2014 offseason rolled around and yet more inaction as they said “Oh, we just needed to get healthy, we’ll have Cueto and Ludwick back, so we’ll be ready to compete.”

        Then the 2014 trade deadline rolled around and yet again.. inaction. “We got Jack for that!”

        Now that the 2014-2015 offseason is here, you’re telling me “Oh, we just need to get healthy. We’ll have Votto and Bruce back!”

        Sorry, but I have heard that song and dance before, as has everyone else. What everyone conveniently forgets is that the Reds weren’t viewed as a particularly good team coming into 2014 even when everyone was healthy. Everyone knew the offense was suspect before people got hurt. Bringing everyone back healthy and a year older just brings them right back to an even more suspect offense. Most of the predictions I remember didn’t have the Reds going to the playoffs in 2014.

      • earmbrister

        My point is that the Cards aren’t geniuses and WJ is not an idiot. The subject isn’t utility players, and while that is a favorite topic here, here are 2 responses to your comments:

        1. Schumaker has career splits of .281/.339/.705 and played hurt all last year while everyone bashed him, and
        2. Hannahan never played for the Cards, nor even in the NL before coming to the Reds (and “Jack for that” is getting way past lame).

        The Cards went out got a “major league ready” 26 year old that has 841 AAA PA. WOW, he must REALLY be ready with all those AAA plate appearances … yawn. The minor leagues are littered with “major league ready” talent.

        Regarding “operational methods”, the 2011 WS Champ Cards had the all time great Ryan Theirot leading off for them most of the year (until he gave way in August for Rafael Furcal and a bit of the aforementioned Skip Schumaker). BHam was a rookie this year, he’ll only get better, and (oh yeah) the Reds have no one better to leadoff. WJ pulled off a great trade to land Choo here for a season, and then made a great decision to let him walk. Texas will choke on that $116 M contract for six years.

        As for injuries, the 2014 Reds had significant injuries to their two best offensive players as well as most of their starting rotation (not to mention injuries to BP and their bullpen). Good teams, even great teams do not take those injury hits and win anything. Add a healthy Votto and Bruce, to Mesoraco, Frasier, a second year Hamilton, and a wily Phillips, and again you are only looking for an answer in LF. I can live with an all (gold) glove SS (particularly with this starting pitching).

        You state that “ In 2013 the reason for inaction at the trade deadline was “Oh, we’ll be getting Ludwick and Cueto back, it’ll be like trading for a #1 pitcher and a LF”, while in fact there could have been a multitude of reasons for “inaction”. How about a lack of a good deal to pull the trigger on.

        You propose that the same reason, or excuse, was used in after 2013, and follow up that well reasoned supposition with the 2014 trade deadline lamest of lines “we got Jack for that”. As if our worst utility player was the focus of our activity, or lack thereof. We have the best writer here on this blog making the case in July for the Reds to be buyers, then for the Reds to be sellers, and WJ is slammed for doing neither (as in please make a deal, good or bad, just make some kind of deal).

        Jocketty has shown he can make big trades: see Choo and Latos.

        Jocketty has shown he can make big international signings: see Chapman (whom of us didn’t say at the time, “the Reds”?) and Iglesias.

        Not to mention scrap heap moves like Alfredo Simon.

        The drafts have been solid, and contrary to popular belief, they’ve been weighted towards hitting in recent years.

        Count me in the minority of those that are not hyperventilating. Not to say that you are.

  8. reaganspad

    Jay Bruce will not be traded. He will have a monster year for the Reds next year, the one overdue from 2014 when he should have been a 40 HR 120 RBI guy

    That said, if you can ever trade and get the better of the trade, you do it. I just do not see teams overwhelming us for Jay after his 2014 season.

    In retrospect though, I thought we over payed for Latos, but that deal has sure turned out great for the Reds because our trinkets dealt never really prospered.

    Yonder is what he is, Grandal looked like a player and may well yet one day be.

    that trade was 3 trinkets and a major league starter for a number one.

    So what would we need for Jay Bruce, all star? A Latos like return with better ML ready prospects. Jay would need to net us a better haul than we traded for Mat Latos.

    If that doesn’t happen, welcome back to the Reds Jay.

    • ToddAlmighty

      This isn’t a couple years ago. in 2014 the MLB league leader in HR hit 40. Next highest was 37.

      Each of the last two years, there have only been 3 players in the NL who hit 30+ HR.

      Also, RBI are a silly way to measure success, plus it’ll never happen if Hamilton’s .290 OBP/23 CS and BP’s .300 OBP are batting #1 and #2.

    • charlottencredsfan

      I think this guy is nipping at the cooking sherry. He doesn’t even mention the horrid bullpen. Yeah, I agree if all those things happen and we catch lightning in a bottle with LF and shore up the pen, the Reds just might compete for a wildcard slot. Whoo-hoo!

      • ToddAlmighty

        So basically it sums up to be “If the bullpen takes a 180, 2/3rds of the lineup gets better, the other 1/3rd continues their career years, and nobody gets hurt, they can compete.”

        Real confidence builder there.

      • redsfan06

        The main point of the article at SBnation is the Reds should be making an attempt to improve the team this off season so they can win in 2015 rather than starting the rebuilding process.

        Sure, they have to count on Votto coming back. The Reds don’t really have a choice in this matter, unless they want to conclude his signing is a 10 year mistake.

        If the currency of baseball is right handed hitting, the Reds have two valuable players in Frazier and Mes. They are playing two positions which are not full of players making major contributions at the plate in MLB right now. If random kids can pitch, then fixing the bullpen shouldn’t be an insurmountable task.

        The hole in LF needs to be plugged and making a move to fix it in the off season is the direction the Reds should head. But it needs to be a good bat, not a rescue a player off the scrap heap type of acquisition.

        As the writer states, if it doesn’t work and the team concludes a new direction needs to begin, that process can always be revisited before the mid-season trade deadline. Even with his fastball velocity and K rate down, Latos pitched well last year. There was an article here on Redlegnation showing his results rated as #2 starter across MLB. By the trade deadline, he will have a full year of pitching in since his surgery. One could make a case his value will be greater at the trade deadline if he continues to pitch the same way. The Reds don’t need to start backing up yet.

      • charlottencredsfan

        IMO, at the moment, there are two guys that can get you a very nice return and need to go: JC & Chapman. We will have to wait for JV, HB and possibly BP to get there value up before trading but they need to go too. All three have contracts that are not healthy for Cincinnati’s market size. Adding Johnny to this would just enhance our problems. If you buy stock at $100/share and current market price is $50/share, you have issues.

        Obviously, if you believe that the Reds are just a player or two short you hang in there. With money limitations, injuries, and old age creeping in; I think you need to get out ahead of it and start dealing.

        If we had Yankee, Dodger, or Red Sox money; it might be a different story. Still would rather be where the Cubs are at going into 2015, for the long term. Whoever is responsible for hiring Theo Epstein has vision. The 2016 the Cubs replace the Cards as team to beat in the NL Central. Can the Reds be that team in 2017?? They can’t be in 2015 or 2016. Not without a miracle and that is no way to run a business

  9. ohiojimw

    What it may be coming down to is that with offense on the downtrend and pitching cheapened, the Reds may have to trade a position player along with a front line starter to get value enough to improve the team overall.

    Looking down the Reds roster, who is there among the position players that might bring return? The “prospects” are all at least a year away from having enough value. Contract terms, no trade clauses and 5 and 10 rights effectively take Votto and Phillips out of the mix. One presumes it would take the blockbuster of the last 5-10 years to shake loose Meso. That leaves Bruce and Frazier (Cozart doesn’t even rate mention).

    Perhaps it will come down to dealing Bruce or Frazier along with say, Leake, to get two offensive players neither of whom is as individually valuable as the guy leaving but the two of whom together are better in sum total than the leaving incumbent and whoever else the Reds would field at the spot the second which would be filled by one of the incoming guys. And then the Reds cross their fingers an hope for health among the starters so they can cover the rotation with remaining talent.

    • C-bus Chris 14

      I can’t believe there are posters on this site legitimately talking playoffs for the Reds in 2015. You are in denial.

      Do the math. Locks for the playoffs: dodgers, giants, Cards, Nats.

      Contenders for remaining spot: Pirates, Brewers, Braves, Marlins, Cubs, Reds.

      All of the easy wins against the Cubs the last 3 seasons are gone and have to be replaced. And the Reds flirted with losing 90 games last year.

      There is no way the 2015 Reds are a serious playoff contender. Anyone who says otherwise is in complete denial.

      • MrRed

        Eh, the prospects for the Red’s 2015 season don’t look good but I wouldn’t rush to anoint any of these teams as playoff locks or contenders. If you want to bet on anything, you can bet that most of these teams won’t perform as well as what it appears on paper.

        The Cards look to have the best shot as they are the class of their division. Nats have had up and down years. The dodgers spend like there’s no tomorrow and consistently don’t get commensurate value in return. Giants have had great runs in the playoffs but can certainly struggle to get there. Pirates are definitely taking a step backward next year and still have a lot of holes to fill. Braves seem to be looking to rebuild rather than contend next year. Brewers had a great start last year and an even greater collapse, so what makes you think they’re moving in the right direction? Are you kidding me with the Marlins? The Cubs certainly have only one way to go but I wouldn’t bet on a bunch of green prospects to all come together for a playoff run next season. Point is, there will be a lot of room for teams to surprise and compete for the playoffs next year so I wouldn’t be so quick to judge.

      • JohnU

        I will call your denial and raise you one … “locks” for the playoffs on the 22nd of November? I had odds that neither second wild card team would be battling for the W.S. title in the 9th inning of the 7th game, but it sho-nuff happened.
        When they put an (E) next to the Reds in the standings, we’re out of it.

      • Moses

        Ah, but that’s where you err. Being a Northern Californian, it’s become clear that the Giants are never a lock to even make the playoffs the year after they win a World Series. They take the odd years off and then come back possessed the following year.

  10. JohnU

    Bruce is the latest whipping boy for trade talks. Once we get past the reality that we can’t find a left fielder, and now we think we might trade our right fielder, it’s probably on to Frazier or Cozart.
    The Reds have spent 5 years trying to find a guy to the other side of the outfield after spending 4 years going through the phone book to find a shortstop and a catcher … and, yeah … we can always find a “young player” to go out to right field, the logic being — as always — he can’t do any worse. (VFW barstool logic) …
    So I expect next week, we will be deciding if Frazier has enough upside so that we can deal for a couple of 33-year-old middle relievers. We can always use Negron at 3B, right?

    • JohnU

      I did want to add that if we remember Cory Patterson and Willie The Virus, when Drew Stubbs makes you happy, it’s sort of like a fruit cake is better than going hungry. Keep Bruce. He’s a Redleg.

    • Grand Salami

      I am convinced that the Bruce rumor was just that. It was a well timed leak during a cold period to light a fire under a franchise player in the offseason. That is my, “Walt can’t be this checked out” theory.

      The Reds need to find a LF bat, nothing has changed. The options have seemingly dwindled and the biggest name was the Dodgers. The one that makes the most sense is probably Fowler.