Johnny Cueto pitched eight innings of one run baseball, and the Reds beat the Brewers 3-1 to begin the final six game homestand of 2014. The loss by the Brewers all but eliminates them from the postseason in 2014 (if the Pirates and Giants win one more game the rest of the season, or the Brewers lose one more game, they are eliminated). Todd Frazier and Devin Mesoraco hit back-to-back home runs in the first inning, and the Reds never looked back.

Biggest Play of the Game

According to Fangraphs WPA statistic (winning percentage added), the most important play of the game was Johnny Cueto getting Ryan Braun to ground into a double play in the 7th inning. There were runners on 1st and 2nd at the time with 0 outs, and the Reds leading 2-1. That play increased the Reds chances of winning by 21.0% (from 53.1% to 74.1%).

Other important plays (+/- indicates how much each play increased or decreased the Reds chances of winning):

• +11.5%: 1st inning – Frazier’s solo HR. Reds lead 1-0.
• +10.1%: 1st inning – Mesoraco’s solo HR. Reds lead 2-0
• +8.3%: 9th inning – Chapman strikes out Ramirez. Runners on 1st & 2nd, 2 outs.
• +7.1%: 9th inning – Chapman strikes out Braun. Reds win 3-1. Brewers strand runners on 1st & 3rd.
• -11.2%: 6th inning – Gomez solo HR off Cueto. Reds lead 2-1.
• -11.2%: 7th inning – Ramirez singles off Cueto. Runners on 1st & 2nd, 0 outs.
• -7.5%: 9th inning – Chapman walked Lucroy. Runners on 1st & 2nd, 1 out.
• -7.3%: 7th inning – Lucroy reaches on a fielding error by Cozart to leadoff the inning.
• -7.2%: 9th inning – Chapman hits Gomez by a pitch to leadoff the inning.

Player of the Game

Johnny Cueto: 8.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 7 K, 3.38 FIP, 0.40 WPA

Cueto won his 19th game of the season tonight (full disclaimer before I continue: I do not condone using wins and losses as a way of evaluating a pitcher. It is a 100% flawed system and a poor way to evaluating pitchers). Cueto’s 19 wins ties his own mark of 19 wins back in 2012 as the most by a Reds pitcher since Danny Jackson in 1988. Now for the more important numbers: Cueto’s 2.29 ERA is the best by a Reds pitcher that qualified for the ERA title since Gary Nolan (1.99 ERA) in 1972. Even more impressive, Cueto’s 0.97 WHIP is the second best since 1901 by a Reds pitcher (only Tom Seaver’s 0.96 WHIP in 1977 is better).

Positives

Devin Mesoraco hit his 25th home run of the season in the first inning. Mesoraco continues to climb the list of the most HR in a single-season by a Reds catcher (minimum 50% of games played at catcher).

Todd Frazier hit his 28th home run of the season in the first inning. Only two players have hit more home runs while playing 50% or more of their games at third base in Reds history: Tony Perez did it twice, 1968 (38) and 1970 (40), and Deron Johnson hit 32 HR in 1965.

Billy Hamilton and Devin Mesoraco made a fine play in the first inning to take away a run from the Brewers.

Negatives

Billy Hamilton went 0 for 4 and his OBP has now dropped to .293.

Aroldis Chapman was a little shaky in the 9th inning, but I guess that sort of thing happens when you pitch once every two weeks.

Not so random thoughts…………..

As this season draws to a close, you have to start wondering if we could be seeing the last start from one of the starting pitchers in a Reds uniform? There is certainly some speculation that the Reds could trade one of their three starting pitchers (Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Mike Leake) whose contracts all end following next season. Could Sunday be the last time we ever see Cueto pitch in a Reds uniform? Could Friday be the last time we ever see Leake pitch for the Reds? Have we seen Mat Latos last start in a Reds uniform?

The Reds assured themselves of a non-90 loss season. Whew, it was looking hairy for a little bit.