Daniel Corcino filled in brilliantly in his first career MLB start, after Reds scheduled starter Mat Latos was scratched because of a bone bruise. Corcino allowed just two hits in six innings, but it wasn’t enough. The Brewers got a walk-off win off Jumbo Diaz, a big win for a struggling team still fighting for a playoff spot. The Reds three game winning streak came to an end.

Biggest Play of the Game

According to Fangraphs WPA statistic (winning percentage added), the most important play of the game was Jonathan Lucroy’s leadoff double in the 9th inning off Jumbo Diaz. That play increased the Brewers chances of winning by 17.4% (from 63.3% to 80.7%)

Other important plays (+/- indicates how much each play increased or decreased the Reds chances of winning):

• +10.7%: 7th inning – Phillips walked. Runners on 1st & 2nd, 0 outs.
• +10.3%: 1st inning – Negron’s solo HR. Reds lead 1-0.
• +9.2%: 9th inning – Phillips walked to leadoff the inning.
• +9.1%: 8th inning – Negron doubled. Runner on 2nd, 1 out.
• -16.8%: 9th inning – Overbay’s game winning single. Brewers win 3-2.
• -14.4%: 9th inning – Hannahan struck out to end the inning. Reds strand runners on 2nd & 3rd.
• -12.5%: 4th inning – Braun’s RBI single off Corcino. Brewers lead 2-1.
• -11.0%: 7th inning – Braun doubled off Ondrusek to lead off the inning.
• -8.8%: 7th inning – Mesoraco struck out to end the inning. Reds stranded runners on 1st & 3rd.
• -8.3%: 4th inning – Gomez reaches 2nd base on a dropped 3rd strike and error by Pena. Runner on 2nd base, 0 outs.

Player of the Game

Jonathan Lucroy: 2 for 3, 2B, 1 RBI, 1 Run, 1 BB, 0.27 WPA

Positives

Daniel Corcino gave the Reds a tremendous effort tonight in first career MLB start. Corcino’s fastball was touching 92 MPH, and he mixed in a good slider. Corcino was the Reds #4 prospect according to Baseball America after he posted a 3.01 ERA in 26 starts in AA in 2012. However, Corcino was dropped to the Reds #13 prospect according to Baseball America after he posted a 5.86 ERA in 23 starts (28 appearances) at AAA in 2013. Tonight, if maybe just for a night, Corcino showed us once again that promise he gave back in 2012. His line on the night: 6.0 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 4 K, 2.29 FIP.

Kris Negron hit a solo homer in the first inning to give the Reds a 1-0 lead. It was Negron’s 5th HR of the season. He also legged out a “hustle double” in the 8th inning. Negron has looked really good since being called up in July. I think he has done more than enough to show that he should be on the 2015 opening day roster. Negron is a terrific defender, who can play every position except catcher (including SS). There is no way players like Skip Schumaker, Ramon Santiago, or Jack Hannahan should be on the roster over Negron.

Todd Frazier stole his 20th base of the season in the first inning. Frazier became just the third Reds 3B to join the 20-20 club (20 HR, 20 SB), joining Aaron Boone (26 HR, 32 SB in 2002) and Chris Sabo (25 HR, 25 SB in 1990). It is amazing that Frazier has stole 20 bases this season, considering he entered 2014 with 10 SB in 319 games.

Logan Ondrusek gave up a leadoff double to Ryan Braun in the 7th inning, but then proceeded to strike out the side.

Pedro Villarreal pitched a perfect 8th inning. Villarreal has done a good job in a few limited relief appearances this season for the Reds: 10.0 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 4 BB, 8 K, 3.60 ERA, 3.02 FIP.

Brandon Phillips walked twice tonight. It was the first time Phillips had walked twice in a game since opening day.

Negatives

Jumbo Diaz really struggled tonight. Diaz allowed a leadoff double in the 9th, and then had to intentionally load the bases to try to get out of it. He couldn’t, and the Reds lost. Diaz has been shaky of late. In his last six appearances, he has allowed 4 ER, 9 H, 5 BB, and just 3 K’s in 5.0 IP.

Bryan Price continues to be obsessed with the bunt. He called for Heisey to bunt twice tonight with runners on second base. After Heisey failed to put down a successful bunt on the first two pitches in the 7th inning, Heisey just missed a three run homer. That is why you shouldn’t bunt the runner over. 3 runs > 1 run.

Not so random thoughts……..

Mat Latos was scratched from his scheduled start tonight because of bone bruise on his right elbow. Our own Steve Mancuso wrote a bit about Latos injury earlier today on RN.

The Reds have 14 games left. They would have to go 11-3 to finish the season 81-81.

Jack Hannahan was none too pleased about being called out on strikes, in the 9th inning, on a 3-2 count, with runners on 2nd and 3rd. Jack had a point too, it should have been ball four.

Ya, that wasn't a strike. pic.twitter.com/f1E1PAXLj4

— ɴɪᴄᴋ ᴋɪʀʙy (@Nicholaspkirby) September 13, 2014