Tonight’s game was delayed by 23 minutes before the first inning started. Then, during the SECOND batter of the game, the game was delayed again, this time for 1 hour and 46 minutes. It’s been a long season for a lot of reasons, but the ridiculous amount of rain delays have been brutal.

Once the game started, it only got worse. Mat Latos allowed four earned runs in the first inning, and the Reds offense was shutout through six innings by Bud Norris. Jay Bruce hit a grand slam in the 8th inning, but it would leave the Reds a run short, 5-4. The Reds had the winning run on third base with 1 out in the 9th inning, and Todd Frazier up. Frazier grounded into a double play to end the game.

The Reds could have picked up a game in the wild-card race with the Brewers losing tonight, and been 6.0 back. Instead, the Reds remain 7.0 back from a wild card spot, and are now 9.0 back from the Cardinals in the NL Central. Tonight was the Reds MLB worst 34th 1-run loss.

Final R H E
 Cincinnati Reds (66-72) 4 6 0
 Baltimore Orioles (80-57) 5 10 2
W: Norris (12-8) L: Latos (5-4)
FanGraphs Win Probability | Box Score | Game Photos | Game Thread

Biggest Play of the Game

According to Fangraphs WPA statistic (winning percentage added), the most important play of the game was Todd Frazier grounding into a game ending double play (Reds strand the tying run on 3rd base). The play decreased the Reds chances of winning by 37.6% (from 37.4% to 0.0%).

Other important plays (+/- indicates how much each play increased or decreased the Reds chances of winning):

  • +14.8% – 9th inning: Hamilton singles. Runners on 1st & 3rd with 1 out.
  • +14.0% – 8th inning: Bruce’s grand slam. O’s lead 5-4.
  • +13.6% – 9th inning: Santiago doubles. Runner on 2nd. 1 out.
  • -10.4% – 1st inning: Davis’ RBI single off Latos. O’s lead 2-0. Runners on 1st & 3rd, 1 out.
  • -9.2% – 1st inning: Cruz’ RBI single off Latos. O’s lead 1-0. Runners on 1st & 2nd, 1 out.
  • -7.5% – 9th inning: Negron grounded out to leadoff the inning.

Player of the Game

Jay Bruce: 2 for 4, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 0.14 WPA

Jay Bruce hit a ball really hard in the second inning off the wall. I thought at the time it was good to see Bruce hit the ball hard. Well, in the 8th inning he hit a ball even harder, and the result was four runs with one swing.  Boy, I think everyone would love to see Jay Bruce finish 2014 strong. He might just be able to do that.


Ryan Dennick pitched a perfect sixth inning in his major league debut, striking out one. Dennick had a nice season with the Louisville Bats, posting a 2.36 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 57 appearances (all as a reliever). Dennick came up through the Royals organization. The Reds selected Dennick from the Royals in the Rule 5 draft back in 2012. Dennick has yet to make an MLB appearance.

Pedro Villarreal also pitched a perfect seventh inning.

Billy Hamilton stole his 55th base of the season. That set a new Reds rookie single season record for SB, breaking the previous record of 54 by Bob Bescher in 1909. The only other Reds rookie with 40+ SB was Chris Sabo back in 1988. Here are some other SB records that Hamilton is chasing:



Mat Latos was pretty bad tonight. I am sure the lengthy rain delay didn’t help him all that much, but allowing 4 ER in the first inning with this offense isn’t going to lead to many wins. Four of the first five batters Latos faced all reached base with singles (all were pretty lightly hit). Eric said it best below, when you don’t strike batters out, this sort of thing happens. Latos entered today with a below average 6.60 K/9 (MLB average this season is 7.71). We have seen a decline in Latos velocity this season, which is certainly a major contributor to his decline in strikeouts. This isn’t to say that Latos hasn’t been good or he can’t be good in the future. He will just be more of a pitcher like Mike Leake (6.81 K/9), and less of a pitcher like Johnny Cueto (8.91 K/9) if he keep this strikeout rate up.

Brandon Phillips went 0 for 4 tonight. Phillips entered tonight hitting .160/.222/.200 in 13 games since returning from the DL.

Billy Hamilton was caught stealing for the 21st time this season (which was six times more than anyone else in the MLB entering today). He is now 55 for 76 in SB attempts (72.4%). The MLB average for SB attempts this season is 73.1%.

Not so random thoughts………

Billy Hamilton also probably made the best tackle we will see by a Cincinnati professional athlete this year…..

billy gif


39 Responses

  1. The Next Janish

    16 and 8?!?
    Just wondering who else is keeping track. 🙂

  2. RedAlert

    Broken record – Groundhog Day- dejavu – rinse and repeat – Revolving door – time warp …

  3. Jake

    So will the Cubs catch us? They’re 3.5 games back from us

    • pinson343

      There will be a big showdown in Chicago later this month. By then the Reds might be in last place.

      • RedsfanPa

        They’re playing well, better than the Reds. I will not be surprised to see them move into 4th place with the Reds bringing up the rear….fitting I guess.

  4. pinson343

    I realized tonight how much this team has worn me down. When Bruce hit the grand slam, I was happy for his sake, but otherwise just thought: “Another 1 run loss.”

    When Frazier got up with Santiago on 3rd and 1 out, I was thinking “He’s the 2nd best hitter in the lineup but I’d rather have ANY of the others up now.” He’s so overeager in those situations, pitchers know it and just let him get himself out with a K or weak ball to the IF. Either he’s a very bad student or the coaches/manager are very bad teachers.

  5. pinson343

    It hasn’t been mentioned that on Frazier’s bouncer, a 4-6-3 DP could not have been turned. So if Hamilton just stops short of the tag and retreats to first, the game is tied.

    Price said: “You know as a base runner that you absolutely cannot be tagged there. It’s the only way they’re going to turn two in that situation …”

    • jessecuster44

      so the Reds would lose by one run in extras…

    • sultanofswaff

      That’s the thing—on the crack of the bat Billy was thinking he had to break up a double play so he ran hard. It’s simply not possible to stop on a dime there. I don’t like Price’s comments. It was a split second reaction by Billy based on the best information available (ground ball, no idea where 2B is).

      SuperTodd had some really bad at-bats last night. The blame goes to him IMO.

  6. Bred

    How many wins did B. Ham cost the Reds this year by getting caught stealing? Maybe not many with this weak offense. How is it that the fastest man can’t beat the league average? Is it the defense is anticipating the attempt, so the pitcher delivers a pitch that the catcher can get rid of more quickly, he gets a poor lead off first, or just pure wheels don’t necessarily translate to successful base stealing?

    • lwblogger2

      All of those things BRED. I think he’ll get better but his success rate has not been what I’d hoped.

      • sultanofswaff

        In a losing season like this, I’d still rather see Billy run. 1. It’ll help him learn, and 2. Our offense is sooo bad, station-to-station baseball is the last thing we want to do.

      • VaRedsFan

        100% Sultan. Learn…which is exactly what he has been doing.

    • redmountain

      A lot of the caught stealings have been when he got pitcked off. He had not seen any of these guys before and so was not familiar with pick off moves. If base stealing was about the fastest guy he would not have been caught as much. He will get better with experience.

  7. redsfan06

    Losing 1 run at a time, the Reds now have a better run differential than both the Brewers and the Cards.

  8. lwblogger2

    If they had to lose, I’m glad it was to my other team… I am concerned about Latos’ velocity. I thought it would bounce-back as the season continued but quite frankly it hasn’t. Hopefully he’ll build some strength in the off-season and the velocity will be back when spring training hits. He’s still a good pitcher without it, but he isn’t pitcher 1A without it.

    • sultanofswaff

      I think we’re in the same boat with Latos as we were with Cueto last year—completely unsure of what we’ll see the following season. For me, it’s not a big deal. If Latos comes out of the gate strong, you probably hold onto him the entire year because the Reds will be competitive. If he’s not, you trade him or take the draft pick. And it goes without saying you don’t discuss and extension with this many unknowns.

      I dunno, Leake is starting to look like a more attractive extension candidate all the time. He’s got age, health, and his numbers don’t put him in the top tier of pitchers. Seems way more achievable to lock up a glue-guy like him……..less risky.

      • lwblogger2

        I like the idea of locking up Leake. I think he is the kind of guy who’s just going to eat innings and give you decent starts. As long as the price is right, he’d be a good guy to keep.

      • Redsfan48

        Trade Leake for a bat this offseason. Keep and sign Latos and Cueto. Latos has a much higher ceiling than Leake, and their floors are probably the same (4.00-4.50 ERA). Latos has the potential to be an ace still, while Leake will never be better than a #2 or 3 starter, which is why you keep him over Leake.

      • WVRedlegs

        I agree with you LW, keep Leake. You have to like the pace of the game when Leake pitches. The Defense sure does.

    • BigRedMike

      It might be just one game, but, Latos velocity was down quite a bit last night. It was lower than the 2014 average which is down from prior years.

      • Redsfan48

        I’m just gonna go out on a limb here (not really), but I definitely think the rain delay at least had something to do with this.

    • redmountain

      Unless he has a Votto kind of time, I would expect him to be much better next year.

  9. ToddAlmighty

    Glad Hamilton isn’t hurt from that collision. What umpire runs directly into the first base path? Send that man back to whatever umpire training they have before he actually hurts someone for real.

  10. WVRedlegs

    I was wondering if anyone else heard what I did last night on the Reds radio Banana Phone before the game was re-started, about 8:20pm EDT. The caller said that Jeff Peccoro was on a Louisville sports radio show last week and stated that during the past off-season the Miami Marlins had approached the Reds and offered a Giancarlo Stanton for Aroldis Chapman deal straight up. A 1 for 1 deal that the Reds turned down. I was stunned. Of course, Lance tells the caller that he didn’t believe it for a second, then changes the subject.
    There seems to be a story there and nobody is asking any pertinent questions. If true, who with the Reds turned this down, the front office or ownership?

    • sultanofswaff

      Boy, that’s just like the Reds to overvalue a guy who pitches 70 innings a year, isn’t it? To that end, the one bad thing about the Broxton trade is that it cemented Chapman’s place on the team and in the bullpen. Not sure I can think of a larger wasted opportunity in the history of this franchise…….maybe Sparky letting George Foster rot on the bench for a few years???

    • Jake

      If that’s true, that makes me furious. One of the best bats in the league passed for a guy who barely pitches?

    • VaRedsFan

      Don’t be lured in by gossip. probably a 99% chance that that is fabricated.

      • lwblogger2

        Yeah, I strongly doubt that offer was really extended.

      • wvredlegs

        The part about Piecoro saying something on the air should be easy to verify. If he actually said it, then Piecoro has some splainin’ to do.

  11. Tom Reed

    This offense struggles to get a fly ball with one out and the runner on third. What a season.

  12. JM

    Leake should absolutely get an extension. If the Miami Marlins offered Stanton for Chapman straight up and we turned them down, Walt and Bob should be removed.

  13. Trd Ferguson

    It is truly disturbing at how bad this team is.. My little league team could do a better job swinging the bat than they could. We have wasted some of the best pitching this club has seen in 24 years!!!

  14. Trd Ferguson

    For this team to get better they need to dump Brandon Phillips, Trade Latos for four top prospects (hopefully young bats), Get rid of Heisey, Schumaker, Ludwick, Marshall,Santiago. I know some of those players are in the final year of their contract so that helps out a bit, however, Shumaker is not needed anymore due to Negron. I know some of you will be up in arms about that, but the Kid is a better all around player than Schumaker and and a lot cheaper.

  15. Kevin J. Brown (@ZebtheRed)

    Impressive first outing by Dennick, got ahead of hitters (all first pitch strikes) and only 2 balls in 11 pitches overall. The last batter gave the ball a bit of a ride, but Ryan looked good. Maybe he could be the extra lefty in the pen we need in 2015.

    • George Mirones

      Kevin, is this really you? Using the words “maybe” and “could” in the same sentence. 🙂