If the Reds actually do something before today’s non-waiver trade deadline at 4 p.m. ET, we’ll post a new thread. For now, use this as an open thread to discuss rumors, missed opportunities and your ideas for what general manager Walt Jocketty should do today. Check back here for updates as the day goes on.
In case you missed them, here are posts we’ve already published on the trade deadline: Start by reading Jocketty’s comments from a radio interview he conducted in happier times, known as ten days ago; Tony Liao catalogued Jocketty’s past trades with the Reds and found a few common threads; Mike Maffie wrote about trading starting pitchers and how that relates to the Reds; a week ago I wrote that the Reds should focus on 2015 with a limited sell posture; and Richard Fitch wrote that fans should be cautious about second-guessing Jocketty’s actions (or inaction).
In terms of moves that have already been made, remember that the Reds acquired pitcher Rasiel Iglesias, the highly touted Cuban defector. And per Jocketty, your anxiety about Joey Votto’s absence should be allayed by the much-anticipated return of Jack Hannahan. #wegotjackforthat
Speaking of rumors and limited selling, late last night it broke that the Reds had made Ryan Ludwick “available” (Bob Nightengale, USA Today). The 36-year-old left fielder is hitting .261/.326/.394 for the Reds. Ludwick is owed the remainder of his $7.5 million salary for this year and a $4.5 million buy-out next season. Don’t get your hopes up for anything in return other than partial salary relief.
Keep in mind as today progresses:
• There’s nothing inconsistent with the Reds both selling and buying today, as either could improve the franchise. Even as the Reds look to dump Ludwick’s salary, they might trade for his replacement. The Reds could trade peak Jonathan Broxton while trading for a less-well paid set-up reliever. The interesting aspect will be whether the moves are focused on 2014, 2015 or beyond.
• After today, the Reds can still make trades, but the players have to first pass through waivers by the other 29 teams. Pitchers with big contracts like Broxton might pass through waivers. But players with extremely team-friendly salaries, like Alfredo Simon, surely wouldn’t. The Reds could also shop Broxton and Simon in the off-season, although their value is highest right now.
• There haven’t been any hints that the Reds are about to do something major, but a defining characteristic of Jocketty’s regime has been maintaining silence before big deals (Latos, Marshall, Choo).
Here’s hoping that Jocketty can figure out a trade – that another team would accept – that would improve the Reds.
LOL @ Reds feeling need to tell teams that Ryan Ludwick being available.
Honestly I think the Reds are looking hard at the possibility of Rios or Byrd, but want to dump Ludwicks salary to have room for one of them. Hell, throw him into the deal for Rios or Byrd, a mid level prospect or 2 and Ryan Ludwick for one of them
Also had to love Walt calming concerns about Votto’s absence by reminding us that Hannahan is back.
I keep coming back to the suggested trade of Chapman and Cueto to LAD for the four prospects, including one blocked in the OF. (http://www.rantsports.com/mlb/2014/07/30/los-angeles-dodgers-and-cincinnati-reds-could-make-blockbuster-trade-no-one-saw-coming/) Seems like we need not give up both Chapman and Cueto, and the LAD need not give up all four suggested prospects. But Pederson would be welcomed by me, for sure.
Even for Cueto and Chapman, I don’t think there is any way the Dodgers would give up both Seager and Pederson, but I’m certainly not adverse to asking or trading Chapman and Cueto for a significant return.
I’d do that deal. LF who can start tomorrow, SS who can start next year, starting pitcher prospect who projects as a #2 or #3, and a AAA relief pitcher who’s fastball is graded 80/80.. six years of each in exchange for 1.5 years of Cueto and 2.5 years of Chapman.
Done.
I figured as much, even though he’s effectively blocked by the huge contracts that prevent the LAD from moving Kemp, Ethier, or Crawford (since no one will trade for those players). LA’d be wise to trade Pederson unless they think there is a realistic shot of offloading two of those contracts (Puig’s not going anywhere).
Winker’s season just ended with a partial tear in his wrist and he barely was able to get his feet wet in AA. Pederson could finish the season for the Reds in LF. Winker likely won’t be ready until 2016 now. Bruce is a free agent after 2016 unless they pick up the 2017.
I also imagine if you get Seager, you send him to the Fall League and then let him compete against Cozart in 2015 Spring Training since he’s an elite prospect.
If the Dodgers won’t let Pederson go, how about putting Van Slyke in the package instead. I would do that.
Not sure I’d welcome Van Slyke. Depsite nice numbers, he’s been a platoon player only. He’s played only 2/3 (67) of LA’s games this year. Slashing 257/378/514 right now with nice OPS+ of 151. 9 HR and only 17 RBI, though (how many of those 17 did he get against Cin?).
I saw a proposition of Cueto for Pederson and Seager of LA. That would be the ONLY situation where I’d give up Cueto, if you could get TWO elite prospects, not just one elite and one mid-level like the cubbies got for Samardzija. The only other situation I’d even consider is if you get a major league ready contributor and some prospects and still I wouldn’t be overly excited to deal Cueto
Here is my take on that trade. Do not do it unless you have no plans to keep either Hamilton or Bruce. Here is why that trade does not work for me: Pederson would then block Winker, Ervin, and others. The trade weakens the Reds pitching for the immediate future. The Reds have no one to put in Cueto’s spot in the rotation, and Chapman is more affordable than Broxton so why not trade him? I rather like Cozart as a SS so unless Seager is going to be aimed at Phillips, then I see no immediate need. Last of all, why would the Dodgers move their heir apparent at SS and give up an OF with a big upside? I do not think the Dodgers are willing to part with them anyway.
Cozart can’t hit. End of conversation. And the dodgers would be willing to give up Seager because Alex Guerrero is more likely to become their next SS/2B
I didn’t see that trade suggested, but I actually thought about a similar deal except with Broxton instead of Chapman. Obviously that was with my Red colored glasses on hoping the Dodgers would accept Broxton since he is so good this season. I’d hate seeing Cueto go (and certainly Cueto and Chapman would be tough to swallow), but the Reds most likely can’t afford all the pitching the next couple of years anyway.
Wow on the Lester to the A’s deal. At least it keeps him out of the division and away from the Cards and Pirates.
Holy cow. The Red Sox definitely do not sit on their hands.
This is precisely why I believe the Dodgers would be willing to part with notable prospects in exchange for Cueto. They want nothing more than to beat the Giants. In the end, they may not send Pederson and Seager for Cueto, but I sure hope that we learn that Walt was in contact (at least) with the Dodgers brass and also with the Giants management, the latter to create a bit of leverage.
My god, the Red Sox are gonna be tough next season. Got Craig and Cespedes for the middle of the order, expect to re sign Lester, and got Joe Kelley to replace Lackey
LOL @ got Craig
Here is my take on that trade. Do not do it unless you have no plans to keep either Hamilton or Bruce. Here is why that trade does not work for me: Pederson would then block Winker, Ervin, and others. The trade weakens the Reds pitching for the immediate future. The Reds have no one to put in Cueto’s spot in the rotation, and Chapman is more affordable than Broxton so why not trade him? I rather like Cozart as a SS so unless Seager is going to be aimed at Phillips, then I see no immediate need. Last of all, why would the Dodgers move their heir apparent at SS and give up an OF with a big upside? I do not think the Dodgers are willing to part with them anyway.
Cespedes power would have played well @ GABP….
as would his strikeouts…
Baseball Reference has him at -1.1 career dWAR. Fangraphs has him at -15.4 career on their defense metric.
Though at least BBRef has him at positive dWAR this year. Fangraphs still has him as a negative defender.
Yes it would have. Man, I’d love to see either Cespedes or Stanton play even just one season as a Red in Great American SmallPark. And the K’s aren’t a concern because even Trout strikes out a ton and he’s the best hitter on the planet.
there is no conceivable way anyone would acquire Ludwick….well maybe Louisville?
Chappy is the only guy only going 3 outs at a time. I just don’t see him moving into the rotation anytime soon. Not too mention, He loves the attention he’s getting as a closer.
I have zero expectations for any moves of any kind. Bummed in St. Augustine, FL.
Trade Alfredo Simon. His stock is at a peak so trade him for a bat of some sort. Nobody wants Ludwicks contract. Jocketty is afraid to make moves.
I think if Walt doesn’t trade Simon today, it would be a huge missed opportunity. I know that really boxes in our pitching depth this year and possibly next, but I truly don’t think Simon’s value will ever be any higher than it is now. This would be a great sell high in my opinion.
I also would not hate Walt going after Zobrist still. I know the price might be too high, but I would welcome a player with his positional flexibility for the rest of this year and all of next year. A day with + Zobrist and – Simon/Broxton would be a fantastic day for the Reds. Of course, this is comment fantasy land and most likely, we won’t do anything, which is depressing and IMO, the worst move we could make.
Steve, you know you want to tweet “Rumor has it Cueto is being held from his start.” just to make today more interesting… because I am watching MLB Network and dang it’s boring not seeing anything about the Reds.
If Lester = Cespedes, then Cueto or Latos = ?
I think I’d trade whichever you don’t think you can eventually sign for young power like Cespedes.
I don’t want Cespedes in Cincinnati. However, the idea that eleven starts of Lester returned a full year of a guy who will finish this year around 3.5 WAR is telling. This is the biggest seller’s market that I can recall.
Yet the Reds are still hibernating as they have since the Choo trade.
I hadn’t seen the FA after 2015 detail; I figured they’d have control for a few years and be able to cement the outfield for a couple of seasons. it seems more appetizing that way. of course, you may be right: if neither Bruce nor Cespedes developed into their peak years, you’d have two all-or-nothing bats in the outfield. haven’t seen enough of Cespedes to know his trajectory, but I’m starting to think Bruce’s growth has seriously stunted.
Oakland already has 4 good starters now. Also think all Oakland offensive players’ numbers are a mirage due to how they’re used. Just like how Gomes put up like a 142 OPS+ with Oakland, got signed to a 2yr/$10m deal to Boston, and the next two years put up an OPS .100 lower and .200 lower than his season in Oakland.
I want Walt to trade himself
People may have missed this late post on the recap thread: Do yourself a favor and find video of the Pirates in the 6th inning vs SF last night. The greatest TOOTBLAN(s) in history, a game-changing DP on a Walk. It will make you feel better about the Reds, or at least give you a good laugh at the expense of a key division foe.
I agree if you trade both you are killing your bullpen and making it what it was earlier in the season. I don’t want to see that again.
I am all for trading Broxton though if we can get something back.
I still like the idea of Chapman in the rotation, but want Cueto dealt in this market. Eleven starts of Lester brought back a year of Cespedes. . . . What would one year and eleven starts of Johnny Cueto bring? . . .
No need to make trades that will hurt us more than help us. You have to look forward to next year, because this season is pretty much done because of injuries.
With the roster we have right now, we are looking at a dominant Reds team next year. We will have one of the best lineups in baseball, the best fielders in baseball, the best closer in baseball, the best starting staff in baseball, and a pretty decent bullpen. That is what we were going for this year, but due to injury, we only had 3 of the 5.
I could understand a move or two for an LF and RP, but nothing more will be needed.
As if there were any more reasons needed of why the Reds need to make trades to restock their farm… apparently Louisville got no-hit last night.
I mean, since we’re in Miami anyway, let’s just swap Stanton for ______.
Chapman?
I heard Walt is talking to Obama about trading Ludwick for five detainees from Gitmo…
Crickets. What a surprise…….
Man all of the pitching rumors, it’s hard to believe that Simon couldn’t be dealt for something given his current status. I mean he’s not Price, Lackey, or even Burnett, but I would think he would be able to bring something decent back to the Reds.
Dude has not started in the past 3 years. How many more innings do you think he has going in to the last 2 months?
I’ll go ahead and post the Jocketty standard quote now prior to the 4 pm deadline : “Well, we just couldn’t find the fit we were looking for out there “
The only one of these trades that makes any kind of sense is Simon for Yelich. Yelich is a very good ball player and I have watched him since he first came up lash season. He’s currently a starter on my fantasy team as well. Yelich would be good in left field for the Reds. As far as the Latos proposition, I think if the Reds trade a starter, it has to be Leake or maybe even Bailey. Latos would be a sell-low candidate and when healthy I think he’s equal in ability to Johnny Cueto. We need the 1-2 punch of Cueto-Latos or vice versa next season even if we can’t contend this season.
Reds gonna get “Jack” ( oh we already got that)
I bet all of the calls Walt is getting about Ludwick have blown up the Cincy area cell towers! Lol!!!!!!!
So, what’s the odds the deadline passes and they’ll say something like…
“We’ll get Brandon back, and Joey too, and it’ll be like acquiring two players without having to give up anything for them.”
Trying to make it sound okay that Walt doesn’t do his job because injured people will eventually return. Just step down and let someone sell for you, Walt. Sheesh.
I assume if no trade is made then Walt isn’t trying very hard. All the other GMs in the league don’t find it all that hard, yet Walt hasn’t made a deal since Choo. That was at the end of 2012.
It is now 2014. It’s been nearly twenty months. TWENTY MONTHS.
Yes, because the previous Cuban pitcher wasn’t a waste of money already. They signed Chapman with the intention of making him a starter too, how’d that work out? Oh wait, he’s in the process of pitching like 55 innings this year.
I also don’t think you should point out Schumaker and Bailey as positives for Walt doing things. Schumaker is at -0.6 WAR and still has a delightful $2.5m salary next year and $500k buyout the year after that. Homer Bailey is sitting on 0.6 WAR for $9m and we still have another 5yr/$98m of enjoyment on him.
Yeah, but living in St. Louis I keep an eye on CardsTalk (on stltoday.com) and they actually couldn’t care less about getting pitchers, they all want a bat because their offense is pretty bad right now as well. Their run differential is actually negative now.
Don’t even mention September. Who are the Reds even going to call up? Their AAA team is already starting for their major league team. Do they even have enough people worth calling up to fill out the expanded roster? Serious question.
looks like a done deal
I just want everyone who’s been saying that no one can’t make trades because of the second wildcard and all the parity in baseball, to notice that there are trades going on all over the place. The good teams are getting better, and the returns aren’t astronomical.
+11111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111
Teams with GM’s actually taking advantage of market dynamics at the trade deadline and actually making their teams better by making astute trades. What a concept!!!!! Somebody please explain to Walt how this concept works.
Here are some of the major leaguers who have been traded in the last week or so, off the top of my head:
Justin Masterson
Jeff Samardizja
John Lackey
Jake Peavy
Darwin Barney
Johnny Gomes
Felix Doubront
Kendrys Morales
Joakim Soria
Houston Street
Yangervis Solarte
And that doesn’t get into the prospects.
Also, do you really think that Cespedes is that good, or are you just buying the hype? At $10.5 mil next year (all of which the Red Sox are paying, plus the cash they gave the A’s in the deal), he’s probably a good value, but he’s hardly a steal. He’s a three win player making a two win players money for one year.
Add Lester and Now Andrew Miller to the list.
Iglesias still having visa problems?
Honestly, year 2 of this inactivity BS makes me less interested in watching the Reds than if they had sold to overstock the minors with elite prospects… because at least if they sold I would have the feeling they have a plan/know what they’re actually doing.
Right now I feel like they simply don’t and that’s worse than going for it and failing or rebuilding… by far.
Totally agree. I wish the Reds had sold some pieces in the last offseason and right now we had a mediocre team with some really good prospects on the way, rather than a mediocre team with seemingly no plan for the future.
It’s not the deadline, as Toddalmighty said. It’s two years of standing pat.
Exactly. It’s not just the deadline, it’s just the two years now of drifting without a purpose. We all knew coming into the season before people even got hurt that this wasn’t a particularly great team. Nobody was talking about the Reds winning the division. They were talking about competing for a wild card spot. Yet nothing was done in the offseason and there’s continuing to be nothing done. Quite literally anyone could do the same job Walt Jocketty has done over the last 20 months or so because he’s barely even done anything.
Well said Toddalmighty – Walt’s hands ought to be plenty sore now from sitting on them for so long
Drew,
I vividly remember you telling everyone a few years ago how it was time to stop paying attention to the Reds because the Colts season was starting up…
Proposed this earlier, throw Ludwick into a Rios/Byrd deal just to even out the salary that the reds are taking on. And Cingrani is on the DL, so as John Fay says, guys with injured shoulders have zero trade value
I’ll go along with that as a Reds fan since the days of Big Klu, Ewell Blackwell and Wally Post.
DBAA towards people expressing their frustration, please. I’ve avoided commenting on this thread because I knew I’d vent all sorts of frustrations about the job Jocketty’s doing right now. He’s done very little to improve the team the last few seasons. While I applaud him getting Iglesias, he failed to bring in adequate help in the offseason and then failed AGAIN when Votto and Phillips went down.
Are you actually Walt? Is this why you’re too busy to participate in the trade deadline? It’d explain why you’re the singular person defending Walt’s action or lack of action over the last two years.
That’s a lot of “what ifs” compared to a more simple.. Walt isn’t doing his job.
Occam’s razor and all.
Of course we don’t know whether it’s ownership or Jocketty, but the point is we can see that the Reds have not made many improvements to the team while other teams are improving.
And we had the money to lock up Ludwick, Broxton, and Bailey, so that makes it seem less likely that it’s money, and more likely that it’s bad decision making.
Just joining in to “defend” Walt. I think he’s done a pretty good job.
They actually got Masterson yesterday.
Toddalmighty , I think you have hit on something – I think Drew is Walt !
The indecision is what kills me.
Walt, buy or sell in what you think is the BEST interest of the club, but to do nothing is criminal. We are flush in pitching that we cannot possibly hold on to after 2015…their price will never be higher than today with the buying club getting to control rest of 14 and 15. We’ve already seen what starting pitching can bring, pull the trigger !!
THANK YOU!! Stop making excuses Walt!!
Doesn’t matter Drew – the point is that they are trying to improve their current status – what have the Reds done
N-O-T-H-I-N-G. !!!!!!
Dangling the one pitcher who’s value isn’t up. Cueto’s is through the roof, Simon’s will never be better, Broxton’s will never be better, Chapman’s will likely never be better.. and they’re trying to trade the youngest starting pitcher who will probably be most willing to sign here long term, and is coming off two surgeries so his value is at it’s lowest.
Smart.
Good. That’s a lot smarter than trying to get Marlon Byrd at this point. They should have been doing that all week.
Also, Latos is the one with the bigger frame and has shown an ability to get guys out without his best velo. His curve has looked great this year. In my opinion, Latos is more of a sure thing, long term, than Cueto is. Also, now is the time to try to extend, not trade, Latos (I also previously argued that last winter was the time to extend Cueto). Move Cueto, as the returns are likely to never be higher.
Exactly, his fastball went up to 96 his last start, so velocity isn’t an issue. He’s still 26, so plenty of good years left.. possibly the most underrated point for the argument of extending Latos? He and his wife like it here in Cincinnati. They live here all throughout the year. Other players go back elsewhere during the offseason, they toughed out last winter with us.
Of course talent is the most important factor, but all other things equal, I would choose the guy who makes this city his hometown over the guy who leaves in the offseason 10/10 times.
I did not realize the Latos-es lived in Cin all year. That causes me to retract what I said above. (Not being a smartass at all; seriously impressed by this.)
Not to belabor the point, but Latos is also a guy who seems to fear nothing. He may be a bit of a hothead, but I like his makeup on the mound. I doubt seriously that Latos would have appeared as flustered as Cueto did in Pittsburgh last year. He has shown in many instances his willingness to compete. He was the guy who came in when Cueto went down in San Francisco, he was not happy when he was held back in his rehap, he owned the Posey home run right away. Latos is a guy I want on the Reds for the next half decade (at least).
The Angels and Tigers have already made trades and the Tigers are in on another right now.
For more, see the list of people traded that I posted above. If you don’t want to listen, that’s fine, but you can’t just cover your ears and say that no one is talking. I’ve already given you a big list of people traded, and it’s not even complete.
And again, you can keep CAPITALIZING stud, but Cespedes is a bleow average defender with a career .318 OBP who strikes out 20% of the time. He has power, but less HRs than Todd Frazier right now, so he’s not exactly an elite power hitter. Also, he’s owed $10.5 mil for next year and that’s the only year the Sox have control over him.
Still think he’s that valuable?
Really sad, especially since Cueto has another year of team control. Cespedes isn’t that good.
Maybe others don’t feel this way, but IMHO Latos is far less likely to resign with Cin than Cueto is. I lived in SD when the Pads brought Latos up. Definitely a SoCal guy. LA could be interested in him b/c Latos owns the Giants over his career. I love Latos’s fire and competitiveness. I would love to keep him. But if we are resigned to not re-signing one of Cueto, Leake or Latos, I’m afraid Latos would be the odd man out.
Above my intent in “criminal” was indeed to chart a course of improvement. I do not advocate making a deal just to make a deal. But you can’t tell me that had we shopped around Latos or Chapman over Ludwick, we wouldn’t have gotten some good bites.
Read somewhere that the Brewers were in on Lester as well, so maybe they are in on Price? I have no clue what they would have to give though.
And the pitchers that those teams are getting aren’t just pitchers. They 3 of top 25 most valuable pitchers in the game, with Lester being in the conversation for best pitcher in the game.
For one year, in which they will pay him $10.5 mil. The A’s are better now than they were with Cespedes, and they are putting together a WS caliber team. If they win the WS, do you think anyone here (I live in Oakland) will give a **** about Cespedes?
this is what i wanna see !
Craig’s contract wasn’t all that team friendly. Sure he’s got a bat, but he’s horribly defensively, which is why he’s never been higher than a 2.6 WAR player in the past. He’s also currently 30 and sitting on a -0.6 WAR this year.. with $5.5m in 2015, $9m in 2016, $11m in 2017, and a $13m team option/$1m buyout in 2018.
His bat and defense will never get any better at he continues to go further on the wrong side of 30, and he was only a 2.4-2.6 WAR player at his best. It’ll probably be okayish this year and next, but when that $9m and $11m tags roll around, the Cardinals will laugh at out they got out from under that $20m minimum he’ll be owed from 2016-on.
Agreed. As much as I would hate to lose Cueto, he would probably be the one I would rather “dangle”. I mean it seems as though Latos and his wife really like it in Cincy. If they get rid of Latos and can’t keep Cueto, do they really feel confident in Bailey, Cingrani, Leake, Stephenson, and Lorenzen?
The one pitcher I didn’t want them to trade, of course. Literally the one out of the five I most wanted them to keep.
They probably saw it as a way to not get worse while still getting out from under Craig’s contract.
Denorfia to Mariners. Not that I wanted the Reds to trade for him, but one fewer possibility on the market.
Rumor has it he may retire instead.
Cabrera from Cleveland to Baltimore.
I mean to Natinals.
I was out on the sandbar in Tampa today. I saw Jocketty out there relaxing in the sun.
It could be that Walt is finalizing plans to retire to the Tampa Bay area.
I think he already did 2 years ago.
Zobrist to the Pirates
Can’t wait to see how the Walt apologists spin this as they surely will.
Start with Drew
David Price to the Tigers; at least he didn’t land in the NL Central. Nick Franklin to Tampa.
I’m stunned. If ever a team needed a shake up it was this one. Whether it was buy or sell, something had to happen the team has been sleep walking since the ASB and has a plethora of injuries. Walt is truly an inept GM when you consider his inactivity last year as well with the handling of Byrd. Unbelievable.
Could not agree more!!!! Very Frustrating!
I believe if Walt was not a friend of the owner, he would be gone.
“We’ll eventually get Luddy and Cueto back and it’ll be like— oh, excuse me, that was my 2013 speech. 2014… oh, here we are… We’ll eventually get Brandon and Joey back and it’ll be like trading for two All-Stars without having to give up anything. So we were happy waiting for what we already have.” – My imagination’s picture of Walt’s trade deadline interview.
Spot on and sadly hillarious! If I didn’t laugh I would cry.
Exactly.
Walt got Jack !
Reds have Jack in the GM chair!
I just dont understand not making a move. Worst position to be in, big picture, is stuck in mid pack. Your better off pushing for the playoffs or reloading prospects. Doing neither is accepting mediocrity.
Yeah i am a bit confused as to why we couldnt make a single deal to improve this team long term. Are the Reds players that bad that nobody wants them?
Anybody overpaid will clear waivers so something could still happen in August. Doubt any of the starting pitchers would clear but maybe a smaller deal still gets done.
I have been a Jocketty apologist many times on this site. I guess I won’t be anymore.