Tom Tango has a long history of finding new ways of looking at baseball. Tango, along withÃ‚Â Mitchel Lichtman and Andrew DolphinÃ‚Â wrote “The Book: Playing the Percentages of Baseball”. The trio introduced the wOBP stat and Tango individually created the Fielding Independent Pitching Stat. Needless to say, the guy has a pretty solid resume it comes to thinking about baseball. In his new work, Tango puts new spin on an old debate: the pitcher win.
Instead of rehashing the old debate about wins, Tango has tried to find a solution amidst all the heat and noise. Instead of banishing the Ã¢â‚¬Å“WÃ¢â‚¬Â from baseball, he suggests we reformulate how the win is calculated.
The Tango-win takes aim at what happened Monday night: after 15 exhausting innings, the Reds had finally taken a 2 run lead. Logan Ondrusek, despite almost blowing the game by giving up a run, is credited with the win because he was able to get three outs before giving up 2 runs. Both the believers in the win and the card-carrying members of the SABR community can agree this is an absurd result.
To remedy this, the Tango-win asks one simple question: which pitcher contributed the most to help their team win?
Pitchers are graded on the following scale:
For the winning team, each pitcher gets 1 point for every out they record and lose 4 points for every run allowed.
For the losing team, each pitcher again receives 1 point for each out, but loses 6 points per run scored.
The pitcher with the most points on the winning team gets the win, the pitcher who has the lowest total for the losing team gets the loss. If there is a tie, the pitcher that enters the game first is tagged with the Ã¢â‚¬Å“LÃ¢â‚¬Â.
Here are both the Reds current and Tango-Wins.
Let’s take a look at some of the games where the Tango system and the traditional W-L system disagree:
Monday, March 31st, 2014
(Normal L: Cueto)
Its opening day in Cincinnati! And the Tango is already presented with its first major challenge: what happens when the offense fails get a run across the plate? Johnny Cueto pitches 8 innings and gives up one run. Under the normal Win-Loss system, Cueto takes the L here.
Under the Tango, Cueto gets credit for the seven innings he pitched (+21) but loses points for the one run he gives up (-6). Cueto ends up with a line of +15. Manny Parra takes the L because he entered the game and only recorded two outs (2 points). Parra did give up a hit and a walk, but its rough to deal him the loss when he didnÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t ever have a chance to win.
[Update: As Tom Tango points out in the comment section, you cannot get a loss if youÃ‚Â don’t give up a run. The loss would go to Cueto in this situation.]
Wednesday April 2, 2014
(Normal W: Hoover)
Its game 2! The Tango does a bit better in this game. Tony Cingrani throws 7 shutout innings (+21), but the Reds didn’t manage to cross the plate until the ninth. Under normal rules, Hoover gets the W. Notching twenty-one outs against the Cardinals seems like a greater accomplishment than three.
Tuesday, April 8, 2014.
Homer Bailey went five innings (+15) and gave up four runs (-24) for a Tango total of -9 points. Logan Ondrusek did all he could to try to get Bailey off the hook by giving up two runs (-12), but he couldnÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t quite do it because he went two innings (+6). JJ Hoover also tried to get his buddy Bailey off the hook but only managed to get a Tango-Total of -3 (1 run, 1 innings).
Now, this game is tough for me because when Bailey left the game, it was tied. The Reds win percentage was 46%. By the time Logan Ondrusek entered the game, the Reds were up 6-5 and had a 62% win percentage. Yet after Ondrusek gave up two runs the Reds had a 29% win percentage. Bailey also gave up almost 40 points of win percentage when he blew a 4-0 lead, but the Reds had pretty much a coinflip in the game. When Ondrusek left the game, the Reds were facing a serious uphill struggle. This one could go either way — it was a photo finish in this race to the bottom.
Saturday, April 19, 2014.
Stupid Cubs: 8
Tony Cingrani gave up three runs (-18) over five innings (+15) for a Tango total of (-3). As you can see by the final score, the Reds were still in the game even after Cingrani was pulled. Logan Ondrusek Ã¢â‚¬Å“relievesÃ¢â‚¬Â Cingrani and promptly gets bombed for three runs (-18) and only records 2 outs (+2). The Reds might have not had much of a chance when Cingrani left the game (they were trailing 3-0), but they certainly didn’t have a shot after Ondrusek doubled the score.
Tango says: Ondru, you lose.
Monday April 21, 2014
Mike Leake went seven (+21) but gave up four runs (-24) in this game. He gets bailed out because even though Leake wasnÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t great in this game, the bullpen had a contest regarding who could be worse: Manny Parra 2 outs (+2) and 1 run (-6); JJ Hoover 1 whole inning (+3), 1 run (-6).
This one is another tough call. Parra gave up the tying run in the bottom of eight, yet Hoover gave up a run in the bottom of 9. Hoover was only bailed out because it looked like he was getting a 4 out save. Turns out, that 4 out save only lasted three, and the Pirates got the win.
Wednesday April 30, 2014
Stupid Cubs: 9
Tony Cingrani had another weak start only going four innings (+12) but he gave up three runs (-18) for a Tango total of -6. When he left the game, the Reds and Cubs had basically a 50/50 win percentage split. Nick Christiani enters the game and gives up two runs (-12) over two innings (+6). Yet bad as this performance was, Sean Marshall bails out his teammate by only recording two outs (+2) while giving up four run (-24). Under the Tango-win, Marshall gets to pick up the check for this one.
Tango-ing With Tango
The Tango system, although better than the normal win, still suffers from the fundamental problem associated with pitcher wins: it still relies on how many runs the offense scores. It does not make much sense to say that giving up a run is only -4 points if the team wins the game but -6 if the team loses. The Reds lost game 1 because they got shut out, not because of a particular pitching performance.
The Tango system bails out starters in these situations, but hangs the loss on relievers because they record fewer outs. This is a pretty constant trend in the table above: starting pitchers, by virtue of pitching more innings rack up more points than relievers.
Consider the following example:
If a Ã¢â‚¬Å“winningÃ¢â‚¬Â starter goes six innings (+18) and gives up three runs (-12), then a reliever needs to throw 2.1 shutout innings in order to take the win. While weÃ‚Â criticize the existing W-L system for not dealing with modern bullpen mechanics, having a reliever appear in 3 consecutive innings seems less reasonable.
Now what happens if the team loses the game? The same pitcher that went six inning (+18) and gave up three runs (-18) has a score of 0. If any of the relievers gave up 1 run without recording 6 outs (once again, this rarely happens), then the bullpen takes the loss.
So the Tango system doesn’t deal particularly well with “middle” performances (giving up 3-4 runs in a start) because the starting pitcher will probably get the W if the team wins, while if a reliever gives up say, 1-2 runs,Ã‚Â the loss will probably be hung on the reliever. The margin for error associated with relief performances is much smaller than starters under the Tango-win system.
Considering that league-average ERA is 4.88, it is not uncommon for Ã‚Â relief pitchersÃ‚Â to give up a run or two.
All of this is to say that league average starters (ERA of 4.50, or a Ã¢â‚¬Å“quality startÃ¢â‚¬Â) benefit greatly from this system while starters who are below league average suffer. The Tango system is probably better than our current system inÃ‚Â determining who influenced the outcome of the game, but it is fairly unsatisfying. Really, the problem is trying to tie one player’s performance down as the “winning” or “losing” performance. Twenty-seven outsÃ‚Â is just too long and complicated to pin it all on one player.
At the end of the day, the idea of giving pitchers wins and losses is so broken thatÃ‚Â perhaps we should abandon the idea that pitchers lose games and just give the win to whoever has the highest Tango-ScoreÃ‚Â on the winning team.