If you want my opinion (and if you don’t, why are you here?) No one on the roster is harder to project than Devin Mesoraco. Hamilton has less ML playing time, but we know more about his potential and abilities. Mesoraco, on the other hand, is an enigma. He’s hit not very well in two season of not playing very much. Everyone in the world thinks he’ll improve with more playing time, but how much? Who knows. And what if he doesn’t improve? That’s possible, too.
2013 Slash Line: .238/.287/.362
2014 Projection: .245/.310/.420
2013 WAR: 0.2 (BBRef & FanGraphs average)
2014 Best Guess WAR: 2.5
Projected Difference: +2.3 WAR
2014 Floor: 0.0 WAR
2014 Ceiling: 5.0 WAR
Let me start by saying that I have basically zero confidence in this projection. Based on the information out there, here is what I think:
1. He will take walks.
2. The projection systems are, generally speaking, underselling his power.
In the minors, Mesoraco hit for a lot of power. That’s easy to forget, but an ISO around .200 was not uncommon and at times, he pushed well beyond that. He also typically had a walk rate over 8 percent. If he can approach those marks as a full time player, he will surpass my projection.
But there is at least some possibility that Mesoraco is a Four-A player. I don’t think he is, but I have to acknowledge the possibility.
Mesoraco could be one of the big factors in how well 2014 goes for the Reds. It’s possible to imagine him washing out and it’s possible to imagine him in the all-star game.
I have no idea. What do you think?