Earlier in the week, Reds GM Walt Jocketty said that the Reds are not going to trade Brandon Phillips. Friday night at RedsFest, Jocketty told Lance McAlister “right now he (Billy Hamilton) is our starting CF.†With those two questions being answered, it basically tells you exactly what the 2014 Cincinnati Reds starting lineup will look like:
C – Devin Mesoraco
1B – Joey Votto
2B – Brandon Phillips
3B – Todd Frazier
SS – Zack Cozart
LF – Ryan Ludwick
CF – Billy Hamilton
RF – Jay Bruce
This might be the best time to examine the Reds 2014 starting lineup, and see how they compare to the league average. Let’s begin (note: I will use Billy Hamilton’s numbers at AAA last season since he only had 22 PA at the major league level).
On-Base Percentage:
Joey Votto – .435
Jay Bruce – .329
League Average – .318
Todd Frazier – .314
Brandon Phillips – .310
Billy Hamilton – .308
Ryan Ludwick – .293
Devin Mesoraco – .287
Zack Cozart – .254
Slugging Percentage:
Joey Votto – .491
Jay Bruce – .478
Todd Frazier – .407
Brandon Phillips – .396
League Average – .396
Zack Cozart – .381
Devin Mesoraco – .362
Billy Hamilton – .343
Ryan Ludwick – .326
OPS:
Joey Votto – .926
Jay Bruce – .807
Todd Frazier – .721
League Average – .714
Brandon Phillips – .706
Zack Cozart – .665
Billy Hamilton – .651
Devin Mesoraco – .649
Ryan Ludwick – .618
OPS+ (note: there are no OPS+ numbers for minor league players):
“This statistic normalizes a player’s OPS  it adjusts for small variables that might affect OPS scores (e.g. park effects) and puts the statistic on an easy-to-understand scale. A 100 OPS+ is league average, and each point up or down is one percentage  point above or below league average.  In other words, if a player had a 90 OPS+ last season, that means their OPS was 10% below league average.†– Fangraphs
Joey Votto – 154
Jay Bruce – 118
League Average – 100
Todd Frazier – 96
Brandon Phillips – 92
Zack Cozart – 81
Devin Mesoraco – 77
Ryan Ludwick – 70
wRC+:
“Weighted Runs Created (wRC) is an improved version of Bill James’ Runs Created (RC) statistic, which attempted to quantify a player’s total offensive value and measure it by runs.  In Runs Created, instead of looking at a player’s line and listing out all the details (e.g. 23 2B, 15 HR, 55 BB, 110 K, 19 SB, 5 CS), the information is synthesized into one metric in order to say, “Player X was worth 24 runs to his team last year.† While the idea was sound, James’ formula has since been superseded by Tom Tango’s wRC , which is based off of wOBA.
Similar to OPS+, Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) measures how a player’s wRC compares with league average.  League average is 100, and every point above 100 is a percentage point above league average. For example, a 125 wRC+ means a player created 25% more runs than league average. Similarly, every point below 100 is a percentage point below league average, so a 80 wRC+ means a player created 20% fewer runs than league average.” – Fangraphs
Joey Votto – 156
Jay Bruce – 117
Todd Frazier – 100
League Average – 100
Brandon Phillips – 91
Billy Hamilton – 82
Zack Cozart – 79
Devin Mesoraco – 74
Ryan Ludwick – 70
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When you look at the Reds offense for 2014, there are plenty of reasons to be concerned. This is what this team will have offensively:
Above average hitters:
Joey Votto
Jay Bruce
Slightly below average or average hitters:
Todd Frazier
Brandon Phillips
Well below average hitters:
Zack Cozart
Devin Mesoraco
Ryan Ludwick
Below average hitter at AAA:
Billy Hamilton
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It gets even worse when you compare this team to the two teams they finished behind in the NL Central:
Cardinals wRC+:
Matt Holliday – 148
Matt Carpenter – 147
Matt Adams – 136
Allen Craig – 135
Yadier Molina – 134
Jhonny Peralta – 123
Kolten Wong – 120 (at AAA)
Peter Bourjos – 103
League Average – 100
Pirates wRC+:
Andrew McCutchen – 155
Starling Marte – 121
Jose Tabata – 118
Gaby Sanchez – 117
Neil Walker – 114
Jordy Mercer – 113
Pedro Alvarez – 111
Russell Martin – 101
League Average – 100
If we just look at wRC+, the Reds will have two above average starters, one average starter, and five below average starters. Their main competitors will both have eight above average starters (Cardinals’ Wong above average at AAA). Walt Jocketty has some work to do.