Hi kids, how’s it going? So, the season’s over for the Reds and that’s a bummer. As you may remember, the last few years, I’ve done preseason projections. In 2012, I did pretty well. This year was tougher for a variety of reasons, but I’m still willing to hold myself accountable. Let’s start with the offense and see how I did. I’ll take a look at pitching either tomorrow or when I get to it…
| Player | 2013 Proj. WAR | Actual (bWAR/fWAR) | 2013 OPS Proj. | Actual |
| Shin-Soo Choo* | 4.0 | 4.2/5.2 | .830 | .885 |
| Brandon Phillips | 3.5 | 1.6/2.6 | .740 | .706 |
| Joey Votto | 7.5 | 6.4/6.2 | .990 | .925 |
| Ryan Ludwick | 2.0 | -0.9/-0.8 | .795 | .618 |
| Jay Bruce | 3.5 | 5.1/4.1 | .860 | .807 |
| Todd Frazier | 3.0 | 2.7/3.3 | .760 | .721 |
| Zack Cozart | 3.5 | 1.6/2.1 | .730 | .665 |
| Ryan Hanigan / Devin Mesoraco | 4.0 | -0.3/0.4 | .725/.765 | .567/.649 |
Nailed It
Todd Frazier. Seriously. I called the offensive decline. Sure, maybe he dropped a touch more than I though he would (but then, offense was down league-wide), but I pegged him at 3 WAR, and that is exactly the average of the FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference versions. Indeed, I think we have a decent idea of who Frazier is now, and he is a solid player.
In the Neighborhood
Shin-Soo Choo. Again, maybe I didn’t quite predict the extent of the uptick, but I did predict that there would be one. Most had Choo holding steady or declining. I feel pretty good about that one.
Too Conservative
BP and Bruce. I saw each of them moving in the right direction, but I didn’t correctly predict the extent of Bruce’s improvement or the extent of BP’s decline. I’m really worried about BP heading into the future. Given his age, I think it’s unlikely that this was simply an “off year.” I’d guess his days as an above-average player are over. Bruce, dare I hope, may be hitting a pretty nice peak.
Too Bold
Votto & Cozart. I thought I saw something with Cozart. I was wrong. Votto was more complicated. I waffled on his numbers all spring, but the power seemed to come on at the end, so I went higher with my projection than I would have otherwise. That was a mistake. He still had an excellent year, but it wasn’t as good as I projected it would be.
I Will Not Be Held Responsible
Ludwick and the Catchers. Five players saw time in left for the Reds this year. Collectively, they generated -0.5 bWAR and 0.6 fWAR. Ludwick, when he played, was awful (Heisey, believe it or not, was the only player to post real positive value in left). But I can’t reasonably be blamed for that injury (btw, Ludwick will be a 35 year old who depends on power for his value coming off a major shoulder injury for anyone who thinks the Reds don’t need to worry about left next year).
Now for Hanigan and Mesoraco. Hanigan was hurt a lot, and given his age, I worry that he’s lost it all together. Mes seemed better this year than last year, but his OPS was almost exactly the same (.640 in ’12, .649 this year). That’ probably fine because he’s still pretty young and catchers often peak late, but I’d like to see him come on and do next year what I predicted him to do this year. He’s had a full season of MLB at bats now and he hasn’t done much with them.
Conclusion
I didn’t do nearly as well this year, as did last year, and when I missed, I mostly missed high, which is a problem. Maybe I was too optimistic coming off a great 2012, but still, this seemed like a team where almost everything that good go wrong for the offense did. Anyway, only about 4 months to spring training.