Jason’s wonderful series, previewing the 2013 Cincinnati Reds, provides us with a lot to get excited about for the new season! I took his slash line projections for each player and used the baseballmusings.com lineup tool to calculate the expected runs scored improvement over last season.
The table below illustrates the Reds 2012 slash lines by batting order for comparison. The 2013 lineup is the expected opening day lineup. I’ve shown my playing time estimates for each player along with the aggregate slash line for that spot in the batting order. The aggregate slash line is the weighted average of that player’s projection and the bench projection.
I’ve left the pitchers spot identical to last year, though you could argue that a stronger bench could boost those numbers slightly. The bench weights account for about 17% of the playing time in spots 1-8 of the batting order, consistent with the bench’s playing time last year.
| 2012 Bat Order | OBP | SLG | OPS | —- | 2013 Player | GP estimate | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leadoff | 0.254 | 0.327 | 0.581 | —- | Choo | 125 | 0.364 | 0.434 | 0.798 |
| 2nd | 0.310 | 0.390 | 0.700 | —- | Phillips | 145 | 0.319 | 0.416 | 0.735 |
| 3rd | 0.425 | 0.521 | 0.946 | —- | Votto | 140 | 0.431 | 0.518 | 0.949 |
| 4th | 0.333 | 0.432 | 0.765 | —- | Ludwick | 125 | 0.329 | 0.442 | 0.771 |
| 5th | 0.323 | 0.499 | 0.822 | —- | Bruce | 145 | 0.337 | 0.505 | 0.842 |
| 6th | 0.325 | 0.471 | 0.796 | —- | Frazier | 130 | 0.318 | 0.428 | 0.746 |
| 7th | 0.305 | 0.443 | 0.748 | —- | Cozart | 135 | 0.310 | 0.413 | 0.723 |
| 8th | 0.324 | 0.341 | 0.665 | —- | Hanigan/Mesoraco | 130 | 0.358 | 0.360 | 0.718 |
| 9th | 0.226 | 0.265 | 0.491 | —- | 2012 “9th” | 162 | 0.226 | 0.265 | 0.491 |
In aggregate, this new lineup is projected to score 75-80 more runs in 2013. Most of that is due to the significant improvement expected at the top of that batting order. The leadoff spot alone accounts for 77% of the run improvement estimate.
That size of a run improvement puts them at around 100 wins. If the Reds pitching & defense is not as strong as a year ago and allows 35-40 more runs than they allowed last year, their expected jump in offense would put the Reds at 95 wins with an expected run differential at 744 runs scored and 625 runs allowed.