Dan Szymborski’s 2013 Reds ZiPS projections can be found over on the FanGraphs site this year as was previously posted. I really like these projections since they have the projected numbers for just about every player on the roster.
I’ve taken this years Reds projections for all of the players expected to see playing time this coming season and prorated their projections based on their expected role. I then totaled up a full seasons worth of AB (5500) and IP (1450). I calculated Runs Created for hitters and Runs Allowed for pitchers then used the Pythagorean theorem to predict the Reds record for the upcoming season. Remember, this isn’t an exact science, nobody says it is. This is for fun with the intent of giving us an idea of how the team stacks up going into spring training and how we might expect them to perform this season with next to no external influences such as injuries. Given that caveat, the following are the results.
2013 Reds ZiPS Projections Pyth. WP W L 57% 93 69 Player AB BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ RC Ryan Hanigan 353 0.269 0.357 0.350 0.707 90 44 Devin Mesoraco 251 0.245 0.316 0.429 0.745 97 34 Joey Votto 473 0.300 0.420 0.542 0.962 155 108 Brandon Phillips 595 0.279 0.326 0.426 0.752 99 83 Zack Cozart 548 0.252 0.298 0.403 0.701 85 66 Todd Frazier 502 0.247 0.310 0.444 0.754 99 69 Ryan Ludwick 439 0.253 0.321 0.451 0.772 104 64 Shin-Soo Choo 514 0.276 0.369 0.462 0.831 121 88 Jay Bruce 550 0.258 0.337 0.498 0.835 120 92 Jack Hannahan 249 0.235 0.307 0.354 0.661 76 27 Jason Donald 200 0.242 0.306 0.354 0.660 76 22 Chris Heisey 324 0.260 0.313 0.441 0.754 99 45 Xavier Paul 202 0.261 0.311 0.404 0.715 90 25 Pitchers 299 0.142 0.176 0.183 0.359 10 Totals 5500 0.256 0.332 0.414 0.747 757 Player IP R ERA FIP ERA+ Johnny Cueto 192.7 76 3.32 3.65 123 Mat Latos 197.3 81 3.47 3.48 118 Aroldis Chapman 143.7 62 3.63 3.72 113 Homer Bailey 173.3 82 4.00 3.85 102 Bronson Arroyo 164.7 90 4.59 4.81 89 Mike Leake 112 61 4.59 4.43 89 Jonathan Broxton 47.7 20 3.59 3.66 114 Sean Marshall 66.3 21 2.71 2.55 151 J.J. Hoover 65 26 3.32 3.63 123 Sam LeCure 60 25 3.45 3.61 118 Alfredo Simon 61.3 29 3.96 3.89 103 Nick Masset 42.7 19 3.80 3.80 108 Jose Arredondo 61.7 30 4.09 4.10 100 Logan Ondrusek 61.7 33 4.52 4.68 90 Totals 1450 655 3.80
The Reds were 9th in the league last season with 669 R and 6th in the league with a .726 OPS. The ZiPS projected 757 R and .747 OPS would have placed them 4th and 5th respectively last season. What is most interesting to me though, is where the projected improvement is coming from. If you examine the team slash lines from last season, .251/.315/.411/.726, and from the projections above, .256/.332/.414/.747, you see that the bump in offensive is gained almost completely from an increase in OBP. The Shin-Soo Choo acquisition is the primary reason for this bump and appears as it will pay big dividends for the Reds this upcoming season. The offensive projections look pretty solid to me otherwise.
Last season the Reds pitching staff finished tied for second in the league with a 3.34 ERA. The ZiPs projected 3.80 ERA would have placed them at 7th in the league last season. There are several big drop offs predicted here that account for the projected falloff. Does Chapman fall from a 1.51 ERA in the pen to a 3.63 ERA as a starter? I expected something more closer to a 3.00 ERA. The 0.54 ERA drop for Cueto may be a bit much, and the projected collapse for Arroyo appears to be extreme also. In the pen, ZiPS predicts big fall offs in production for Arredondo, Simon, Broxton, and Ondrusek. I’d expect a few of them to maybe turn in a much worse season, but not all four of them. So those are the projections that seem a bit out of line and account for the predicted decline.
Overall, the Reds in 2012, at 97-65, outperformed their Pythagorean projection of 91-71. The ZiPS projected finish is 93-69. With the projections painting a pretty fair picture of the offense and most likely under estimating the pitching, I think this bodes well for the Reds to finish with about the same number of wins this season as last.