We’ll have another fun playoff roster post for you in a bit, but I wanted to chime in with a quick post about how we should not be worried about Johnny Cueto. I’m just going to cut straight to the chase here.
1. For the season, Johnny Cueto has given up a .302 batting average on balls in play. For September, it’s .415.
2. For the season, he’s stranded 78% of his base runners. For September, it’s 64%.
3. For the season, he’s given up 0.59 HR/9. For September, it’s 2.35
4. For the season, his ERA is 2.92. For September, it’s 8.22.
But this is a post about how Johnny Cueto is fine.
1. For the season, he has 7.17 K/9. For September, it’s 7.63.
2. For the season, he has 2.01 BB/9. For September, it’s 1.76.
3. For the season, 22% of balls hit off him have been line drives, 48.5% have been ground balls, and 29.5% have been fly balls. For September, it’s 19.6%, 46.4%, and 33.9%.
4. I looked closely at Pitch f/x. I consulted Harry Pavlidis, who does more with that data than pretty much anyone out there. Neither of us see anything weird with his velocity or movement.
So what’s the deal?
Nothing is the deal. Johnny Cueto is fine. Totally fine. I know a lot of you don’t like luck, but this is luck. He had a run of three pretty rough starts in May, too. Pitchers get banged around from time to time. Sometimes there’s a good reason. Sometimes there isn’t. This is one of the times when there isn’t a good reason. All the peripherals and advanced data say he is pitching almost exactly as he has all year.
Expect Cueto to be Cueto from here on out.