An interesting point raised by commenter Myles:

1990, Charlton, Norm:

Didn’t start his first game until July 15th.
Pitched a complete game shutout on August 10th.
Finished the year with 154 IP.

Why can’t Chapman start this year?
An additional 70 innings from Chapman adds some wins.

Obviously, Aroldis Chapman is twice as talented as Charlton. I know I’m not as smart as the guys running the Reds, and they have more information available to them…but to me, there is no reason that this can’t happen.