One of the statistical truths of baseball no one wants to believe is that one-run games are largely determined by luck. However, last night was an excellent example of just this phenomenon.

The Reds lost 3-2.

If the ump doesn’t blow that call at home, it’s 3-3 headed to extra innings.

If Tabata doesn’t make that spectacular catch, Reds win 4-3 (at least).

If Leake doesn’t give up his first two hits back to back or even gives up the homer, then the double, Reds win 4-2.

Conversely, if Clint Barmes doesn’t swing at ball four, the Reds lose 4-2 (at least).

Baseball is largely about skill and we all try to minimize the effect of luck, but luck does play a huge role, especially in tight games.