Recently, I came across this fascinating study about inning eaters on playoff teams. Basically, the author looks at how many starters each team in the wild card era had with at least 200 IP. The whole thing is worth reading, but what it boils down to is, the more pitchers you have covering 200 innings, the better your chances.
If nobody gets to 200, you have an 8 percent chance at the playoffs. One pitcher equals a 21 percent chance. Two equals a 32% chance. Three or more equals a whopping 67% chance at the playoffs.
Those are huge numbers and got me wondering how many Reds starters might throw 20 innings.
Bronson Arroyo, much maligned though he is, is pretty close to a lock. Last here he threw 199 and that was his lowest total in a Reds’ uniform.
Mat Latos seems to also have a good shop and several projection systems think he’ll do it.
Homer Bailey is highly unlikely to make it.
That leaves Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake. It’s doubtful, I think that both of them will make it, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see one of them scoot over the threshold.
Right now, I think one pitcher is a pretty sure thing, two is more likely than not, and three is certainly a possibility.
So what are your thoughts?