In his career against the Cincinnati Reds, tonight’s starter for Philadelphia, Roy Oswalt, is 23-3 with a 2.81 ERA. He’s the quintessential Reds-killer, and for many years he combined with Lance Berkman to give us all nightmares.
This season, Oswalt is 13-13 with a sterling 2.76 ERA overall. Since joining the Phillies mid-season, Oswalt has been better than that: 7-1, 1.74 ERA. Even at age 32, he isn’t slowing down at all.
We’re doomed! Doomed, I tell you! Why should we even play the game tonight???
Here’s an idea: let’s look at the numbers a little closer. This chart shows the career performances of tonight’s expected lineup vs. Oswalt:
[table id=26 /]
That chart includes the one person who has faced Oswalt in the post-season; Scott Rolen went 2-4 with a double in the 2004 National League Championship Series. Also, Hanigan’s line is just one game, in which Ryan went 0-1 with 2 walks.
Hmmm…small sample size disclaimers notwithstanding, the plot has thickened. Perhaps the current Reds team hasn’t been as futile against Oswalt as everyone wants you to believe? This year’s roster has hit .290, with an OPS over 800 against this particular “Reds-killer.”
Is it just possible that Oswalt built his reputation as a Reds-killer by years of facing the likes of Alex Ochoa, Donnie Sadler, Kelly Stinnett, Pokey Reese, Robin Jennings, D.T. Cromer, Wilton Guerrero, Reggie Taylor, Juan Castro, Rey Olmedo, Ruben Mateo, D’Angelo Jiminez, Jacob Cruz, John Vander Wal, Darren Bragg, Alex Gonzalez, Royce Clayton, Todd Hollandsworth, Norris Hopper, Paul Bako, Andy Phillips, Jolbert Cabrera, Corey Patterson, and Danny Richar? Maybe…just maybe, that 23-3 record was compiled against teams that haven’t had a single winning record in Oswalt’s career?
Since May of last year, Oswalt is a dreadful 0-4 with a 6.65 ERA against Cincinnati. This year alone, Oswalt is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA against the Reds.
Listen, Roy Oswalt is a great pitcher, and he’s had an outstanding season…but the Reds are playing in the playoffs for a reason. History suggests that this Reds team has a good chance of getting to Oswalt tonight.
Believe.
It would be so sweet to see the Reds put up 8 runs early off Oswalt. This is about as storybook season as you can get. The Reds make it to the postseason for the first time in 15 years only to get no-hit by the best pitcher in baseball. Then the next game they have to face their long time enemy. Roy Oswalt.
This is a very interesting pitching match-up tonight. By looking at statistics you can make a claim that the Reds will get shut down, and then you could look at different splits (as Chad pointed out) and you would think we are going to rough him up. Then, Bronson has not done well against the Phillies line up, but he has not faced them yet this year. Clearly Bronson has taken a different approach with mixing in a change up and a 2 seam fastball into his 4 seam/curveball repertoire that he used to feature. Also, Bronson has been much better this year when he has been given 5 days of rest or more. Should be interesting.
Refreshing!
I just might survive this afternoon after all.
I’m optimistic about tonight as well. To the point where it’s scaring me a litte
Back in the Spring, I was looking for improvement. At the all-star break, I was looking for a winning record. Still not getting my hopes up.
Somewhere along the line, all that changed and I’ve even entertained thoughts of winning it all.
Not even Cy Young Halladay dampened my enthusiasm — but tonight will tell us a lot.
I feel good about this game. As a comparison, I did not like our chances at all before Wednesday’s game.
Also (I’m surprised no one has said it yet) but I loved the list of past reds who Roy has had success against. 😆
Greg has a good point. It all hinges on Arroyo. Am I the only one who is seriously nerves? I don’t mean figuratively, I mean literally. My stomach is flippin’ and floppin’ like my wedding day. I want to have great faith, but am scared of getting hurt…wait, that is like my wedding day!
@RiverCity Redleg:
LOL…Larson. That’s who I was trying to remember.
@Dave Lowenthal: I read somewhere that Dusty was thinking about moving Stubbs to leadoff, but I seriously doubt it happens
@bho52:
If Stubbs had 4 or 5 more bunts for hits than he had this year, I bet Baker would bat him first! Such a waste. Thank you Shane Victorino for using what God gave you!
A waste is asking a guy with Stubb’s power to bunt for base hits.
I’m not exactly sure why yet, but I look for Scotty Rolen to have a big night. It could be because he’s due at the plate something terrible! I feel really good about this game tonight as well.
A left fielder! My kingdom for a left fielder!
@RiverCity Redleg: I’d like to add Russell Branyan, Jason Romano, and Brady Clark
@RiverCity Redleg:
LOL…nice, Just like my son got Drew Sutton this year here in Columbus when the Bats came to town.
@RiverCity Redleg: And your Larson autograph is probably worth a lot more than the Ty Howington one I got at a Potomac Cannons game
I keep looking for the batting practice to come on the official website like the other night, but no luck yet
Back when I was RedinFla, we got a bunch of autographs from guys I hope are NOT “crappy” tonight. 8)
Speaking of Sutton. We got rid of him too early. He was the .667 OBP we are looking for in a lead off hitter…LOL
Ok…The pregame is streaming at the official website right now
@dn4192: If the Reds can win tonight, all that pressure shifts right over to the Phillies
I’m hoping for the best in life tonight, “To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentation of the women!”
Shoot. I’ll settle for “Give me a heart attack, and pull out a one-run win in the ninth.”
Anyone else not getting good sound on the pregame press conference?
It sounds like Brandon is a Transformer. Speaking spanish. Through a Darth Vader mask
…and will the translator reveal what he called the Phils?
@dn4192: Scored off JC Romero in the 9th of the Friday game before the all star break. 1 inning by Madsen, Halladay, Hamels, and Halladay are the scoreless innings
@Matt WI: At this point, I would see Stubbs leading off as a more panic-button type shuffle. Our lineup is our lineup, it got us here, I don’t think there will be much shuffling beyond the usual Nix/Gomes and Hanigan/Hernandez, at least for this series.
@Sultan of Swaff: Conan the Barbarian, but it’s may be based on a quote by Genghis Khan.
Another question would be “Do the Reds have anything to fear about Citizens Bank Park?”
It’s kind of crazy that the lineup hasn’t scored there in 30 innings, isn’t it?