Will tonight be the night?

I won’t deny that I would enjoy watching the Reds clinch tomorrow night with a victory at GAB over Houston. A Cardinals loss tonight, however, means the Reds would seal up the division, and there is something to be said for getting this thing over with.

Here’s an open thread to discuss whatever you want, including tonight’s Cardinals-Pirates game. Who ya’ rooting for?

121 Responses

  1. Mark in cc.

    Maybe I issed an announcement here previously but if not, there are three days left to vote for Joe Nuxhall on Facebook for the Ford Frick Award at the National Baseball HOF site. He is well behind in the voting at this point.

  2. dn4192

    Didn’t the 90 team clinch right around this date and by having the team chasing them lose while the Reds were in a rain delay?

  3. renbutler

    I was selected for a chance to buy NLCS tickets!

    Did anybody else get their confirmation email, either positive or negative? I’m wondering how lucky I actually was. I was NOT selected previously for NLDS tickets.

  4. Jason

    @renbutler: You, good sir, are one lucky, lucky, lucky dude. I just recieved my DENIED email. I was also denied NLCS. The WS is still a possibility for me! So I’ve got that going for me, which is nice.

    • Jason

      @renbutler: You, good sir, are one lucky, lucky, lucky dude. I just recieved my DENIED email. I was also denied NLCS. The WS is still a possibility for me! So I’ve got that going for me, which is nice.

      I obviously meant NLDS. The prices for these tickets on Ebay and StubHub are outrageous, but you only live twice, or so it seems.

      Sorry, I can never resist saying that for I am a 007 nerd-bot.

  5. jdarts

    A buddy of mine who’s a golf pro at a local club got to play 18 holes today with Corky Miller, Drew Stubbs, and Paul Janish. He said all three were absolutely great guys, and that Corky Miller is as hilarious as you’ve probably imagined him to be. Seriously though, golfing with Corky Miller. Add that to my bucket list.

  6. jdarts

    @renbutler: I just now checked my emial. DENIED. You are definitely one lucky guy.

  7. eastcoast redsfan

    I was denied – again. It’s almost like being back in high school.

    • jdarts

      I was denied – again.It’s almost like being back in high school.

      I know the feeling. 😥

  8. vermilion red

    For the first time since the 2004 World Series, I’ll be rooting for the St. Louis Cardinals.

  9. eastcoast redsfan

    If I were going to be at the game tomorrow, I would want the Cards to win tonight … but since I’m not – go Pirates.

  10. DZak1904

    hey guys, quick question: I got picked to buy NLCS tickets and I was wondering what would happen if the Reds don’t make it? Do I get my money back? Do I get a credit for next year? or is it just sorry for your luck?

    Any help would be appreciated. Thanks

  11. jdarts

    @DZak1904: You would get your money back. You should get a voucher saying so.

  12. jdarts

    @DZak1904: I was at my brothers house yesterday and saw his voucher for redeeming the money if the Reds don’t make it to the NLCS. He got priority based on the fact that he had the Power Pack, and spent $700 for the whole package. If they don’t make it, you will definitely get that money back.

    • DZak1904

      @DZak1904: I was at my brothers house yesterday and saw his voucher for redeeming the money if the Reds don’t make it to the NLCS.He got priority based on the fact that he had the Power Pack, and spent $700 for the whole package.If they don’t make it, you will definitely get that money back.

      So it’s definitely money back and not having to spend it on more Reds tickets? Because obviously I would like to buy more tickets than I need so I can sell a few of them, but I certainly don’t want to be stuck with $500 in Reds tickets when my home is 7 hours away 🙁

  13. Steve

    @DZak1904: I’ll confirm what jdarts says. Any games in the NLCS that you buy that the Reds don’t play you’ll receive a refund automatically to your credit card. I have two tickets for all the NLDS and NLCS games because of my PowerPack priority, just like his brother. There is a note in there about the automatic refund. This would apply also if the series occurs but doesn’t play out the whole way. You have to buy four tickets for the NLCS but even if the Reds make it they might only get three home games and even then they may only play two. You get an automatic refund for the ticket price and the convenience fee.

  14. DZak1904

    Thanks a lot you guys, and I’m sorry for those of you that didn’t make it. Bright side though, I have some extra tickets for sale 8)

  15. renbutler

    Steve, I’m wondering if it’s different for individual ticket buyers compared to PowerPack or season ticket purchasers. Somebody here said they were drawn for the NLDS and bought tickets for only one game. The email suggests this is true for the NLCS too — and it only makes sense. My intention is to buy a pair for only one NLCS game.

    Also, even though we would get refunded for games that aren’t played, I wonder if we will get the “convenience fee” back. Again, I assume the season ticket people didn’t have to worry about those because they bought their tickets directly from the team instead of through TicketMaster.

    (BTW, isn’t it fun to talk about postseason tickets? :mrgreen: )

    • jdarts

      (BTW, isn’t it fun to talk about postseason tickets? )

      Very!

    • DZak1904

      Steve, I’m wondering if it’s different for individual ticket buyers compared to PowerPack or season ticket purchasers. Somebody here said they were drawn for the NLDS and bought tickets for only one game. The email suggests this is true for the NLCS too — and it only makes sense. My intention is to buy a pair for only one NLCS game.Also, even though we would get refunded for games that aren’t played, I wonder if we will get the “convenience fee” back. Again, I assume the season ticket people didn’t have to worry about those because they bought their tickets directly from the team instead of through TicketMaster.(BTW, isn’t it fun to talk about postseason tickets? )

      Actually the site says that there is a link you can click on where you can get multiple games. If you don’t click the link, however, you don’t get more than one

  16. icee82

    I got tickets for the LDS but was rejected for the LCS. Oh well!!!

  17. eastcoast redsfan

    Pirates 1 – 0 in the 2nd

  18. Reds03

    I don’t know who I want to win tonight.

  19. jdarts

    @Reds03: Neither do I. Great part is it’s a win-win for all of us. What a great position to be in.

  20. Reds03

    @jdarts: I would really like to see the Reds go crazy if they win tomorrow but I’m going to be happy either way.

  21. jdarts

    @Reds03: I would too. The celebration would be awesome to see, especially in person. I’ll take an NL Central title any way I can get it though.

  22. eastcoast redsfan

    I want the Cards to have a losing record. I hope they lose the next 7 in a row.

  23. Jason

    It’ll be a titch subdued, but we are ready to celebrate a Buccos win tonight and a little thing called a National League Central Division Championship. Yes, that’s a High School Musical popcorn bucket. I hear your snickers, and they are justified. http://plixi.com/p/47540663

    • jdarts

      It’ll be a titch subdued, but we are ready to celebrate a Buccos win tonight and a little thing called a National League Central Division Championship. Yes, that’s a High School Musical popcorn bucket. I hear your snickers, and they are justified. http://plixi.com/p/47540663

      That is fantastic.

  24. LVW

    I want to clinch tonite so my pitcher Wandy can face a watered down lineup tomorrow night.

  25. MrSaturdayNite

    I want to clinch tonight. I can’t bring myself to pull for the Whiners to win anything. The very thought is nauseating. Meanwhile, rooting against the Pirates is pointless: they don’t need help losing. Besides, the mantra all month has been: “The sooner we clinch, the better.”

  26. pinson343

    Walker drives in a run but makes a baserunning blunder. Watching the way contending teams are losing in the AL tonite, I suddenly feel I want the Pirates to win, get this over with.

  27. jdarts

    4-2 Pirates, bottom 5th. Get the Champagne ready.

  28. pinson343

    When we played the Pirates in those 3 close games in Cincy, our bullpen found the top of their order pesky.

    Do your pesky thing, Pirates !

  29. pinson343

    Phils on the verge of clinching, just 3 outs away with an 8-0 lead.

  30. pinson343

    Morton bends but he doesn’t break tonite. And has only thrown 66 pitches.

  31. Reds03

    Phils clinch, watching that makes me want the Cards to win even more so the Reds can clinch with a win

  32. pinson343

    Seeing the Phils clinch tonite makes me want to see the Reds clinch tonite.

  33. Reds03

    Tie game!!!!!! Homer Holliday. Wow, I’m pumped for that!

    • Truman48

      Tie game!!!!!! Homer Holliday. Wow, I’m pumped for that!

      You are getting a little too into Cardinals success aren’t you?

    • jdarts

      Tie game!!!!!! Homer Holliday. Wow, I’m pumped for that!

      Yeah, this is a bit over the top I’d say. A simple “homer from Matt Holliday” would probably suffice. If I didn’t know any better, I would have thought you were a closet Cards fan.

      • Reds03

        Yeah, this is a bit over the top I’d say.A simple “homer from Matt Holliday” would probably suffice.If I didn’t know any better, I would have thought you were a closet Cards fan.

        Oh well. If you think I’m a Cards fan then I don’t know what to say, I hate them more than the Cubs. That means a lot.

  34. Reds03

    @Truman48: After watching the Phillies celebration, I want them to clinch when they win.

  35. Jason

    I pumped my fist in the air when Holliday went deep, yeah, I said it.

  36. pinson343

    As discussed above, the 1990 Reds clinched during a rain delay. What bugged me at the time was that the game did not resume, and the Reds lost. I wanted to see the Reds get a chance to win the game, but no one else seemed to care.

    I remember the Reds sliding on the wet tarp to celebrate, while I was like Charlie Brown, wanting the game to resume.

    Anyway, sure enough, the NY media blasted the Reds for “backing in.”
    Howie Rose, the Mets broadcaster, was srceaming his head off about it.
    “I knew it, I knew they’d back in.”

  37. pinson343

    No way I’m rooting for the Cardinals tonite. I didn’t know how I’d feel until the game started. Listening to Mike Shannon on the radio is so revolting I was immediately rooting for the Pirates.

    • Truman48

      No way I’m rooting for the Cardinals tonite. I didn’t know how I’d feel until the game started.Listening to Mike Shannon on the radio is so revolting I was immediately rooting for the Pirates.

      I’m with you Pinson.

    • Truman48

      @pinson343: Screw the New York media, and everything they think.That is all.

      Gary Carter was one of my favorite players. I was rooting for the Mets big-time in 1986. That was a heck of a playoffs and series.

      I have no love for them anymore.

      And for the record, the Reds have always been my fav.

  38. pinson343

    Those pesky Pirates at it again.

  39. Jason

    @Chad Dotson: Fair enough. If the Buccos lose this one then tomorrow night we can go over my behavior in person over a funnel fry or three. Deal?

  40. pinson343

    @jdarts: You got that right. I tune them out as much as I can. But it’s hard to completely, as I live near NYC.

  41. pinson343

    Good old Bowker is up, the guy who owns Coco.

  42. pinson343

    Whoops, make that LaRoche. Good move.

    • Truman48

      DP!

      All this Cardinals rooting is just way too weird for me.

      • Reds03

        All this Cardinals rooting is just way too weird for me.

        Me too.

  43. pinson343

    I’m afraid that if the Cards win tonite, that goat with the braces will be braying at us again.

  44. jdarts

    @Reds03: Don’t take offense to what I said. I’m just messing with you. All the exclamation points after a Holliday homer would fool anyone though. Just callin it like I see it, sorry.

  45. Jason

    @Chad Dotson: I’m going ONLY if it’s a “clinch” game. I’ve burned every personal day I have at work on the 2010 Cincinnati Reds, I have 2 days left and banked them for playoffs. The only way I’d burn one is if I can watch this team clinch at GABP.

  46. pinson343

    PHing Jon Jay just to bunt ? That’s a waste.

  47. jdarts

    5-4 Cards!!!!!!!! Yesssss!!! This is a joke guys, just havin some fun. 😀

  48. jdarts

    I am torn on how I want the division clinched(which is ridiculous, I know). That selfish side of me does want to see the celebration tomorrow night at GABP. I’d certainly take the division title tonight though.

    • Reds03

      I am torn on how I want the division clinched(which is ridiculous, I know).That selfish side of me does want to see the celebration tomorrow night at GABP.I’d certainly take the division title tonight though.

      I watched the Phillies celebration and it converted me to the Cards side.

  49. pinson343

    Why doesn’t Doumit ever do that against us ?

  50. LVW

    Matt Pagnozzi is a career .214 hitter in the minors and has 3 f’n hits tonite…..another example of dumb Cardinals luck.

  51. jdarts

    6-4 now. It’s ooking like we’re gonna have to wait until tomorrow to pop the champagne.

  52. pinson343

    The Cards forge ahead on an error and then pad their lead on a wild pitch.
    How impressive.

  53. Steve

    Tomorrow night, we clinch the NL Central Division at the Great American Ball Park. I can’t wait.

  54. Jason

    okay, see ya’ll at the ol’ ballyard tomorrow night!!!

  55. pinson343

    Oh well, hang it up and see what tomorrow brings.

    But if we lose to Wandy tomorrow and the Cardinals lose, I don’t see that as a more exciting way to clinch.

    Volquez out-dueling Wandy, I’d drink champagne to that.

  56. Chris Garber

    You guys still talking about playoffs?

  57. Ethan D

    I can hardly wait for tomorrow’s game

  58. Ethan D

    Braves win. Not at all good for the Reds

  59. Dave Lowenthal

    @Chris Garber: Actually I like a bit better the one when he came out in the postgame press conference and his first sentence was “What happened out there today was that we totally sucked.” Refreshing, actually.

    • OhioJim

      @Chris Garber: Actually I like a bit better the one when he came out in the postgame press conference and his first sentence was “What happened out there today was that we totally sucked.” Refreshing, actually.

      Following the Buckeyes beat down of Eastern Michigan on Saturday, Ron English, the EMU coach, got asked the standard question about was it worth the payout to their program ($850K) to come in and take that kind of beating. Instead of all the standard answers that dance around the issue, English said that as the coach, no it wasn’t; That it actually could set a program back both pyschologically and physically. I found that pretty freshing too, especially after listening to the ABC commentators explain how even the small successes EMU might have versus OSU would pump up their confidence and egos for their conerence schedule.

  60. Dave Lowenthal

    I think the Reds most likely clinch day is Wednesday, not tomorrow…Wandy going, that’s a bad matchup, and Burres is going for Pitt.

    On Wed, Cueto vs Figueroa, better matchup, plus PJ Walters pitching for StL against McDonald, who’s been good for them.

    I don’t get the “we want the Cards to win” folks, to be honest. That game could cost the Reds a day or two of not clinching and it takes away rest that Rolen should have, for example.

    • renbutler

      I think the Reds most likely clinch day is Wednesday, not tomorrow…Wandy going, that’s a bad matchup, and Burres is going for Pitt.On Wed, Cueto vs Figueroa, better matchup, plus PJ Walters pitching for StL against McDonald, who’s been good for them.

      Well, I thought we would have learned from putting too much weight on pitching matchups earlier in the season.

      Anyway, if the Reds can’t clinch tomorrow, they could still back into the title on Wednesday because the Cards play a day game.

  61. Dave Lowenthal

    Followup, I understand the idea of clinching in front of the home fans, I really do, I just don’t think it’s as important as readiness for the playoffs.

  62. Dave Lowenthal

    For those who are geeks, like me of course, the probability of the Reds winning the division is about 99.98%. The Cards have to win 6 games, the Reds have to lose 6, and the Cards have to beat the Reds in the playoff. That’s 13 events, and approximating them all by 50/50, it’s 1 minus (1 divided by 2 to the 13th power).

  63. renbutler

    Speaking of probabilities, coolstandings.com now has the following projections (with Game 1/2 locations):

    Reds at Phils: at least 60.5%

    Braves at Reds: at least 16.2%

    Reds at SF/SD: at least 17.7%

    It doesn’t add up to 100% only because they list the top five most likely scenarios (some of which I have combined here for simplicity).

  64. Dave Lowenthal

    @renbutler: And people talk about pitching matchups all the time. For example, in determining who we’d rather the Reds face in the first round.

  65. renbutler

    I’m in!

    Row L in the Moon Deck for (Home) Game 1 of the NLCS!

    8)

  66. pinson343

    @Chris Garber: Love that Jim Mora clip. I’ve been thinking about his “playoffs” rant the last couple of weeks.

    “Playoffs !!!??? You’re talking about playoffs ??!! I’m just trying to win a game.”

    Fortunately for us, just winning a game will mean the playoffs.

  67. pinson343

    I agree that our Wednesday pitching matchup is better than tonite’s. But we’ve got a good shot tonite. If EV is on, he can pitch with anyone.

    And the Houston bullpen has been crappy of late. If we stay close with Wandy in there, we’re in position to win once he leaves.

  68. pinson343

    @Dave Lowenthal: Right, and 1 divided by 2 to the 13th is infinitesimal. So I don’t get why our chance of winning the division is “only” at 99.98%. It should be at 99.99+%. You’d have to go a lot more digits before arriving at 8.

    • pinson343

      @Dave Lowenthal: Right, and 1 divided by 2 to the 13th is infinitesimal.So I don’t get why our chance of winning the division is “only” at 99.98%. It should be at 99.99+%. You’d have to go a lot more digits before arriving at 8.

      An addition to my own comment. One divided by 2 to the 13th is 1/8192, which is 0.00012 (not really infinitesimal, but very very small).
      That makes our chance of winning the division (based on the assumption that we and the Cardinals have a 50% chance of winning our remaining games) at 99.99988, which is much better than 99.98.

      You could only come up with 99.98% by assuming that the Cardinals have a much better than 50% chance of winning and we have a much better than 50% chance of losing our remaining games.

  69. pinson343

    People always talk about pitching matchups, and of course they’re highly relevant to the odds of who’s going to win the game.

    But peoples sometimes overrate the starting matchups, forgetting that a lot of games are decided by the bullpens.

    Also, you can talk about odds based on a pitching matchup, but you can never talk about certainty. (Not that anyone here has.) There’s no certainty in baseball.

    • renbutler

      Also, you can talk about odds based on a pitching matchup, but you can never talk about certainty. (Not that anyone here has.)There’s no certainty in baseball.

      Actually, some people here HAVE called a game result a “lock” based on the pitching matchup. I don’t even think you can call it “likely.” A team might have an advantage based on the matchup, but the pitching matchup is only one of many factors that decide a game.

  70. pinson343

    @renbutler: When someone talks about odds based on a pitching matchup, they’re supposed to take the many other factors into account. Or in other words, the pitching matchup is just one of the factors.

  71. dn4192

    @Ethan D:

    how is that bad for the Reds? We want Atlanta to be the WC team while we are the no. 2 seed, then we get atlanta in the NLDS.

  72. pinson343

    @dn4192: Atlanta’s winning the WC would be bad for the Reds if we are the no. 3 seed. Suppose SF is the no. 2 seed, as it stands now. Then if Atlanta wins the WC, we have to face the Phillies in the divisional playoff, whereas if SD wins the WC, we would face SF.

    It’s important for us to get the no. 2 seed. Then we’ve got home field advantage in the divisionals not matter what. In that case I hope we get Atlanta. Pretty much everyone seems to agree that Atlanta with home field advantage is the best possible playoff scenario for us.