Pre-season questions of whether this Cincinnati Reds team could break the cycle of 10 consecutive losing seasons have now, five months into the season, turned into whether this club could break the 90-win mark. They would be just the fourth Reds club to break the 90-win mark since the Big Red Machine era.

Going into play today there were 53 games remaining in the season.

  • The Reds had 61 wins and 48 losses for a .560 winning percentage
  • With just 1 win over .500 the rest of the way, this club would finish the season at 88-74
  • If they continue to play .560 baseball for the rest of the season, they’d finish with 91 wins
  • If they beat the teams on their schedule at the same rate they have so far this season, they’d finish with 94 wins

The Reds have faced 10 of their remaining 11 opponents, and they have won 59% of the games played in those head-to-head matchups so far. The team that they haven’t faced yet is the Arizona Diamondbacks. Arizona has only won 37% of their games and no longer have Dan Haren or Edwin Jackson in their rotation.

The Reds have 30 games remaining against the NL Central.
— 6 games head-to-head with St Louis
— They’re 5-7 vs. St Louis in 2010 and 8-8 vs. St Louis in 2009
— 24 games versus the rest of the division
— They have a .700 Wpct vs. other NL Central teams in 2010

The Reds have 20 games remaining against the NL West.
— 7 games against D-backs (Arizona has a .376 Wpct)
— 13 games against everyone else (“everyone else” has a .547 Wpct)
— The Reds are 8-8 so far against Padres, Giants, Dodgers, and Rockies in 2010

The Reds have 3 games against the Marlins, who split a 4-game series in April.

The more important question folks are asking in Redleg Nation is whether they will beat the Cardinals and win the division. How does the Reds schedule stack up against the Cardinals?

The weighted winning percentage of
–the Reds remaining opponents is .471
–the Cardinals remaining opponents is .476

Both teams play 25 games at home.
— The Cardinals have a .423 road record and play 29 of their 54 on the road
— The Reds are over .500 on the road and play 28 games on the road

The Cardinals schedule by division

  • The Cardinals have 32 against the NL Central and have a .565 Wpct against the Central
  • The Cardinals have 11 remaining against the Padres, Giants, and Rockies
  • They are 2-7 against these three teams
  • They have 11 remaining against the Braves, Marlins, and Nationals
  • They are 7-1 against these three teams

The biggest difference in the schedules of the Reds and the Cardinals is that the Cardinals play the Braves, the Nationals, and have an extra series against the NL Central, while the Reds have 7 against Arizona and 3 with the Dodgers.

It looks very likely that we’ll see a great division race, right down to the end of the season. The Reds need to avoid any prolonged slumps in the final third of the season, and at least break even with the Cardinals in head-to-head play.