Yesterday, I posted this:
The Reds finished June 14-13. Overall, they are 44-35. If they can play just one game over .500 the rest of the season, they will finish the year 86-76. I will take that!
I really would take that; an 86-win season would be great. On the other hand, I thought it would be interesting to look a little closer at the remaining schedule. Cincinnati has 83 games remaining: 26 in June, 27 in August, and 30 in September/October.
The Reds went 12-11 in April, 18-11 in May, and 14-13 in June. Clearly, May was outstanding, but the Reds don’t have to play that well to end up with a great season. Look at it this way:
Suppose the Reds go 14-12 in July, 14-13 in August, and 16-14 in September/October. That doesn’t seem unrealistic, does it? Well, if Cincinnati can accomplish those modest records, they will finish the season with a record of 88-74. That’s much better than most of us predicted. Heck, if those records are reversed for the last three months, the Reds will still be 83-79.
That’s right; Cincinnati can play under .500 for each of the remaining three months, and still end up with a record that would make me happy.
Okay, what if the Reds can replicate their first half performance, with two mediocre months and one outstanding month? Just for funsies…14-12 in July, 17-10 in August, and 15-15 in September/October. Then we’re talking about a final record of 90-72. Bump up that September performance to 16-14, and the Reds are 92-70.
A team once won the World Series with a worse record than that.
Whatever. This exercise was just for fun. The Reds might crater tomorrow; heaven knows we’ve seen them do that before. As it stands, however, I’m enjoying this team more than any Reds team since 1999. And we can always hope, can’t we?