Over at RR, Slyde has a good post detailing the Juan Francisco plate discipline problem. It’s a substantial problem, in my opinion.

11 Responses

  1. Matt WI

    Bummer to see Heisey and Rosales on that fangraphs list, even if Rosales is an Athletic now.

  2. jkthompson0408

    I guess it’s not that bad. I just thought I would sound the alarm 😉

  3. BJ Ruble

    Francisco will never learn plate discipline and he won’t be a Vlad type player either.

    I was really surprised to see Heisey on the list.

  4. al

    @BJ Ruble: From reading your posts I get it that you don’t like Francisco, but for the life of me I don’t know why.

    The kid is 22, and the article on RR basically says that he needs to improve his walk rate from 4.2% to 6% in order to have comps like alphonso soriano and matt williams.

    Do I know if he’s going to do that? No clue, maybe not. But we have the 22 yr old MVP of the Dominican League in our system, and I’m certainly not cutting bait on him.

    From the Department of Small Sample Sizes; El Nino has walked in 6.5% of his ST plate appearances.

  5. The Mad Hatter

    For the life of me I don’t see the upside of Juan Fransisco other than to trade him when his value couldn’t be higher and likely won’t be this high ever again. He can’t field, he can’t take a walk, he strikes out too often and has hit minor league pitching well but not so well as to say he’s a sure thing. This is where other teams get the best of the Reds year in and year out by dealing these sort of players and getting mid level returns.

  6. BJ Ruble

    @al: It’s not that I don’t like him, it’s just that I don’t like him for the team right now. It’s hard to learn a new position at the major league level (LF) and he is blocked at third and first. I would have liked to see some improvement on his weaknesses over the past two years. There is no doubt in my mind this kid can hit the ball very well, but major league pitchers won’t give him any good pitches if he can’t learn to stay away from the bad ones.

    Defensively is where I have the most problems with him. Many people hated EE because of his defense and Fransisco is much worse than him. He hasn’t played much at all in LF yet, and not real comfortable with it yet. I would think 1b would be the best position other than DH for him, but the Reds best player and a certain 1st round draft pick play there already.

    I say he has to start the season in L’ville, work on his weaknesses. IF he shows improvement, bring him up if need be. I just don’t think he is ready for the big time, yet.

  7. hoosierdad

    @BJ Ruble: Unfortunately, the REDS do not have a suitable back-up at AAA for Rolen. If Rolen goes down for, say 30 days or more (a good possibility at his age) who takes his place? There is really nobody at the AAA level who you can say is the 3rd basebman of the future. I guess Walt is thinking that’s why he got Aaron Miles. I hope that’s not his back-up plan. Francisco is nowhere near ready defensively or with his patience at the plate. Of course, he’s only 22 so the REDS can afford to be patient with him and bring him along in the next year or so. Frazier seems to not have a position that screams out this is where he should play. Sutton doesn’t seem to be the answer either. I think the REDS should keep Frazier on the roster. Go ahead and start him at 3rd for day games after night games. Give Rolen a day off every week. Give Philips a day off. Use Frazier as a PH to give him ABs at the MLB level. Someone has to be ready to take Rolen’s place this year, just in case.

    • Bill Lack

      @BJ Ruble: Unfortunately, the REDS do not have a suitable back-up at AAA for Rolen.If Rolen goes down for, say 30 days or more (a good possibility at his age) who takes his place?There is really nobody at the AAA level who you can say is the 3rd basebman of the future.I guess Walt is thinking that’s why he got Aaron Miles.I hope that’s not his back-up plan.Francisco is nowhere near ready defensively or with his patience at the plate.Of course, he’s only 22 so the REDS can afford to be patient with him and bring him along in the next year or so.Frazier seems to not have a position that screams out this is where he should play.Sutton doesn’t seem to be the answer either.I think the REDS should keep Frazier on the roster.Go ahead and start him at 3rd for day games after night games.Give Rolen a day off every week. Give Philips a day off.Use Frazier as a PH to give him ABs at the MLB level.Someone has to be ready to take Rolen’s place this year, just in case.

      You don’t think Frazier could handle 3B in the event of a Rolen injury?

  8. TC

    Two questions: Where are they going to put him? How does he best help this team? I don’t think anyone knows the answer to the first question. I think we all know the answer to the second. (Hmmm. The this works for Alonso too.)

    Bill James said winning is 1/2 offense, 1/3 pitching, and 1/6 defense. That sounds kind of right to me. So I don’t say this because of either’s defense. Francisco MUST improve his plate disciple and his walk rate. Regardless of his success in the minors, he will get eaten alive in the majors. While talent and skills are really only marginally better between the majors and AAA, the scouting reports are 100 x better.