Over at Seeing Reds, Steve calls Homer Bailey the “most important Reds pitcher in 2010.”

Don’t be fooled by Homer’s mania-free zone, though. No other pitcher on the Reds staff is more likely to see their personal success track as close with the teams’ trajectory this year than Bailey.

Do you agree? We’ve already noticed how our baby’s all growns up (I love that, because I’m insane). It’s funny how everyone’s hopes and dreams have been pinned on Homer for so long…and now that he’s on the precipice of actually realizing his vast potential, he’s been a forgotten man in camp. With the three-headed monster of youthful pitching — Aroldis Chapman, Mike Leake, and Travis Wood — wowing everying this spring, Homer has been allowed to go about his business.

All of a sudden, it’s like everyone just expects Homer to be a stud this year, even though he has really proven very little at the major league level. I’m inclined to think he’s going to have a good year, but I hope people will still be patient with the young guy.

11 Responses

  1. CeeKeR

    I pretty much agree with everything you said. Homer’s got to put together a solid full season for the Reds to have much of a chance… I still think Chapman’s going to the minors, at least for a few months, so that should swing the spotlight back on Homer once the team heads back to Cincinnati.

  2. preach

    I guess the definition of ‘good’ should be stated. For me, a good season for Homer would be an ERA hovering @4.00, with the ability to pitch out of some jams and to be strong at the end of a long season. Healthy, of course, and a decent K to BB rate.

  3. Travis G.

    I think Bailey will be an above-average pitcher this season, with some extended periods of brilliance undercut by some awful innings here and there. You know, like a very talented but still quite young pitcher.

  4. TC

    I expect Homer will struggle like anyone else. I don’t think he’s a front of the rotation guy YET. That’s next year. But what I’m really not sure of is how he’s more closely tied to the team’s success. Harang and Cueto have been too inconsistent to be counted on in my mind. Still, I think the rotation, no matter who wins the 5th spot is capable of 50 wins.

  5. davidmp2

    The reason why “as goes Bailey, so go the Reds” probably applies is because Bailey is the hardest pitcher to figure. Is his September performance indicative of a pitcher who finally made the leap, or was Bailey’s pitching against Pittsburgh four out of his last nine games what “turned it around.” I think much like Zack Greinke and Manny Parra, with Bailey it is 100% mental. Greinke got it, Parra hasn’t. When the problem is mental, it is far more difficult to project the player’s season.

  6. Greg Dafler

    Could the Reds have their #1-4 starters with ERA of 4.00 or less?

    #1 Harang is 4.18 for his Reds career with 3 consecutive years under 4.00 from 2005-2007. He missed out on the better Reds defense last year (never started a game with Rolen at 3B and very few with Stubbs in CF) yet still finished with 4.21.

    #2 Cueto’s ERA dropped from 4.81 to 4.41 last year. Could see another drop with a full offseason of rest.

    #3 Arroyo’s ERA is exactly 4.00 for his Reds career and finished 3.84 last year.

    #4 Bailey’s ERA was the highest of this group with a 4.53 ERA last year, but finished with a 1.70 ERA in his final 9 starts. If this would be his breakthrough season, I think he would post the lowest ERA of the rotation.

  7. RiverCity Redleg

    If we get all four below 4.0, this will be a good year. And I agree that it is a real possibility.

    • hoosierdad

      If we get all four below 4.0, this will be a good year. And I agree that it is a real possibility.

      Don’t know if EACH of them will be under 4.0 but I believe as a group they will be. The improved defense will be a big part of the improved ERA.

  8. nick in va

    I think Homer will have a great year.

  9. GRF

    Just hoping the usage last year does not catch up with him. The increase in inning count was significant.

    Personal projection is along the lines of what Travis predicted.