Prospects or Suspects?

Prospects or suspects? Desperate move or marketing ploy? Trade bait or the future?

Baseball fans have become more and more fascinated with prospects. Losing teams tire of seeing the same players run onto the field day after day, only to see them return from the battle with loss after loss, failed promises from the spring…then the chant begins to bring on the youth, the new players that will somehow propel the home team to the promised land.

So, at what age are these prospects ready? Is there a common age? Yes, every player should be evaluated on their individual skills and merits, and not by a rigid timetable, but does the historical record provide a gauge as to what can be expected or of a way to measure a team’s farm system.

I went back in Reds history more than 50 years to look for patterns in player major league readiness. I didn’t measure how productive they were except for seasons and games played. My assumption was that if a player was good enough to play, he was probably contributing something. If the player wasn’t good enough, he would have been phased from the game.

I decided to exclude all active players from the study (I’ll bring them back later), which also meant, to be fair, I had to exclude all players, even retired players, from any study that included players active from that point. After all, if the player is still playing professionally, the player could still add to his total number of seasons and games played totals.

This took me back to 1995. Chad Mottola, a Reds 1996 first round draft choice, is still toiling in the high minors according to the online site, “Baseball Almanac.” Mottola has appeared in five different seasons and only 59 games in these 14 years, but his most recent major league appearance was 2005 and he was still playing AAA last year for love of the game and the hope of returning to the Show. So, I chose a “generation” of baseball players, 40 years, which directed me to include the years 1956 through 1995 for the study. I chose players that made their Major League debuts with the Reds, whether they had long careers for the Reds or not. Players who debuted for other teams and were acquired by the Reds were not included.

225 players made their Major League debut for the Reds over that 40 year span (1956-1995), 114 hitters and 111 pitchers, an average of 5.6 debuts per year. No players made their Major League debut with the Reds during the 1966 season (also none in 2004). I expected the best players to debut at earlier ages than less-talented players, which seemed logical to me. Better players start earlier and play longer than their less-talented cohorts; that seemed rather obvious. However, I was surprised at exactly how pronounced that premise turned out to be.

Oh, to look up any of these players and get their career statistics, please go to baseball-reference.com and you’ll find their records.

I. Positional Players

114 positional players debuted for the Reds between the years 1956 and 1995. All but two played a fielding position (exceptions: 1956, John Oldham only pinch ran; 1979—Rafael Santo Domingo only pinch hit). Below you will see:

Age: the debut age of the player
Debuts: the number of debut players for that particular age
Season avg: the average number of seasons for each player at that age
Game avg: the average number of games played for each player at that age
Players: most prominent players from that age group

Positional Players 114 players

Age……. Debuts….Seasons..Games… Players
18……… 3……….. 10……… 781……. Curt Flood, Don Pavletich, Bob Henrich
19…….. 2……….. 17.5…… 2314…… Johnny Bench, Vada Pinson
20……… 4……….. 12.5…… 1343…… Frank Robinson, Willie Greene,Kurt Stillwell, Joe Azcue
21……… 12……… 12.5…… 1394…… Pete Rose, Dave Concepcion, Leo Cardenas, Tommy Harper, Ray Knight, Eric Davis
22……… 10……… 12……… 1224…… Tony Perez, Lee May, Barry Larkin, Paul O’Neill, Kal Daniels, Bernie Carbo, Ron Oester
23……… 25……… 9.9…….. 914……. Ken Griffey, Hal McRae, Tommy Helms, Johnny Edwards, Reggie Sanders, Nick Esasky
24……… 14……… 4.9…….. 316……. Joel Youngblood, Jeff Treadway, Eric Owens
25……… 23…….. 4.7…….. 267……. Gary Redus, Tracy Jones, Chico Ruiz, Jeff Branson
26……… 9……….. 4.6…….. 296……. Chris Sabo, Jacob Brumfield
27……… 4……….. 1.3…….. 14……… Pete Rose Jr, Danny Breeden
28……… 2……….. 5……….. 443……. Lloyd McClendon, Terry Lee
29……… 0
30……… 2……….. 1.5…….. 38……… Greg Tubbs, Tom Runnells
31……… 1……….. 1………. 7……….. Bobby Balcena

You’ll notice the HUGE drop off in average seasons and average games played for players who reach the majors after age 23. This strongly suggests that any “prospect” not playing in the major leagues at age 23 will probably not be a star player, or may even have trouble holding a starting job for more than a couple of seasons. This doesn’t mean those players don’t have value. Chris Sabo, Tracy Jones, and Gary Redus all had productive years, even if they did have relatively short careers.

As for age 18…two of three players listed were “bonus babies.” “Bonus babies” is a term that refers to a rule from the mid-20th Century that prevented major league teams from sending certain youngsters to the minor leagues for two years after the young players signed large free agent contracts. Don Pavletich and Bob Henrich were two such examples. Pavletich went on to play a substantial career; Henrich only managed to squeeze out 48 major league cames in three years and suffered without minor league instruction.

In case you are wondering about players who have reached the major leagues since turning professional in 1996 (no games or seasons included since they are still in progress):

Positional players (43 players)

Age 20: 2, Wily Mo Pena and Gookie Dawkins
Age 21: 5, Adam Dunn, Austin Kearns, Jay Bruce, Miguel Perez, and Ray Olmedo
Age 22: 3, Edwin Encarnacion, Juan Francisco, and William Bergolla
Age 23: 2, Joey Votto, Pokey Reese
Age 24: 9, Aaron Boone, Brandon Larson, Chris Denorifa, Mike Frank
Age 25: 10, Josh Hamilton, Jason LaRue, Adam Rosales, Paul Janish
Age 26: 5, Chris Dickerson, Drew Sutton
Age 27: 4, Brady Clark, Ryan Hanigan, Norris Hopper
Age 28: 1, Jim Chamblee

If there’s been a change, it may appear that the demarcation age may have been pushed back a year to age 24, for Aaron Boone definitely put together a quality major league career. However, Boone was actually held up by 25-year-old Willie Greene who the Reds still hoped would develop into a big-time power hitter. Josh Hamilton is a special case where off-the-field problems delayed his major league arrival which discounts his age 25 debut year.

II. Pitchers

I was expecting pitchers to be different, and they were different from hitters, but not for the reasons I expected. What I found was a definite demarcation that seemed to project whether the pitcher would be a starting pitcher or a relief pitcher. Here’s what I found (same format as first group of hitters above):

Pitchers–111 count from 1956-1996

Age……. Debuts….Seasons..Games… Players
17……….2…………9.5………272……Claude Osteen, Dave Skaugstad
18……….1………..10.0……..250…….Gary Nolan
19……….2…………8.0………279……Don Gullett, Billy McCool
20……….5…………9.2………223……Jim Maloney, Milt Wilcox
21……….11……….8.5………244……Mike Cuellar, Ross Grimsley, Wayne Simpson, Mario Soto
22……….11……….7.2………195……Mel Queen, Will McEnaney, Ron Robinson, Charlie Leibrandt
23……….17……….6.5………208…..John Franco, Dave Tomlin, Joe Price, Rawly Eastwick
24……….26……….5.7………192…..Tom Hume, Rob Dibble, Scott Sullivan, Hector Carrasco, Tom Browning, Chris Hammond
25……….18………..4.9………156……Jeff Montgomery, Norm Charlton, Rob Murphy, Bruce Berenyi
26………..9………..3.4……….102…..Jerry Spradlin, Scott Terry, Tom Acker
27……….6………..1.7……….11
28………1………….1.0………..1
29………1…………8.0………268…….Bill Landrum
38………1…………1.0……….8………Pat Scantlebury

Wow…pitchers earning their major league trips by age 22 are starting pitchers (with a couple of lefty relievers). Pitchers getting their first big taste of The Show from age 23 on were relievers (Berenyi and Hammond excepted). I don’t know if 17 year old Dave Skaugstad was a bonus baby (I did not find him on any Bonus Baby list), but he only had 1 season and 2 games and never pitched in the major leagues again (minor league record of 23-50 with a 5.06 ERA).

Now, since 1996? Here goes…

Pitchers since 1996 (47 pitchers)

Age 21: 3, Homer Bailey, Ryan Wagner, Curt Lyons
Age 22: 3, Johnny Cueto, Darryl Thompson, Josh Hall
Age 23: 12, Scott Williamson, B.J. Ryan, Daniel Ray Herrera, Chris Reitsma, Matt Belisle, Rob Bell, Jose Acevedo
Age 24: 5, Brett Tomko, Todd Coffey
Age 25: 6, Matt Maloney, Jared Burton
Age 26: 10, Josh Roenicke, Carlos Fisher, Pedro Viola, John Coutlangus
Age 27: 4, Chris Booker, Brad Salmon
Age 28: 2, Brian Shackleford, Rick Greene
Age 29: 2, Jared Fernandez, Tom Shearn

Once again, very early arrivals for the guys who pitch a lot and project as starting pitchers; by age 23, they are potential swing men, with the vast majority of pitchers arriving at this age or older becoming relievers. Ryan Wagner was the Reds’ #1 draft pick one year and was rushed to the majors. Lyons, Thompson, and Hall are all starting pitchers who suffered injuries.

So, when we’re analyzing prospects in our minor league system, or any major league team’s farm system, it’s important to take note of the players’ ages. The birth certificate date is important in indicating future major league success, espeically as it relates to which minor league level that the player is participating. Not every young player that makes the major leagues at a young age will be a star, but the vast majority of star players do make the major leagues by age 23, and probably by age 22. That doesn’t mean that the older “prospects” won’t contribute, but the likelihood of more than a season or two is quite small.

How old are the current Reds’ prospects? Here’s the Baseball America’s top 30 list with their ages:

Todd Frazier, IF-OF, 24
Yonder Alonso, 1B, 23
Mike Leake, SP, 22
Chris Heisey, OF, 25
Juan Francisco, 3B, 23 (already debuted)
Yorman Rodriguez, OF, 17
Travis Wood, SP, 23
Matt Maloney, SP, 26 (already debuted)
Brad Boxberger, SP, 22
Zach Cozart, SS, 24
Billy Hamilton, SS, 19
Chris Valaika, IF, 24
Neftali Soto, 3B, 21
Logan Ondrusek, RP, 25
Mariekson Gregorius, SS, 20
Jordan Smith, SP, 24
Miguel Rojas, SS, 21
Juan Duran, OF, 18
Enero Del Rosario, RP, 24
Kyle Lotzkar, P, 19
Donnie Joseph, P, 22
Pedro Viola, RP, 27 (already debuted)
Phillippe Valiquette, RP, 23
Mark Serrano, P, 24
Juan Carlos Sulbaran, SP, 20
Josh Fellhauer, OF, 22
Daniel Tuttle, P, 19
Cody Puckett, IF, 23
Bryon Wiley, OF, 23
Devin Mesoraco, C, 22