Baseball Prospectus 2010 has been released and projects more than 1600 players for 2010. No doubt, there will still be someone in spring training that makes a team by surprise, but it’s still an impressive display of statistical information, both historical and projectable in nature.

Below is my effort to give you some one-line summary highlights of the Baseball Prospectus individual summaries. Today is the offense. This is only a handful of the entries. (You should really go buy the book; there is much more information packed in there.)

Yonder Alonso–Reds are hoping Alonso’s bat forces its way into their lineup….but will need to solve lefty pitching and show some more pop

Wladimir Balentien–prospect with big-time power and improving plate discipline but a few too many holes in his swing

Jay Bruce–his power is undeniable, but after 839 MLB plate appearances, his ability to get on base or to hit lefties is in doubt

Orlando Cabrera–offensive performance has been nearly identical the last four years, never gets hurt, and comes with good rep on D–however, analysis shows his D was -13 runs last year in 99 games with the A’s

Chris Dickerson–may have to resign himself to a career as a toolsy part-timer

Juan Francisco–ton of power, but there’s not much else to recommend him….outside of a strong arm

Todd Frazier–not strong enough defensively to stick at short, but a good fit, given his offensive profile, at 2b

Ryan Hanigan–deserves better; would be a back up on a good team, but shouldn’t lose playing time to Ramon Hernandez

Paul Janish–good glove; hasn’t hit since A-ball

Brandon Phillips–fine fielder, made gains at the plate in 2009 due to jump in batting average

Scott Rolen–can still pick it; no longer a power hitter; almost guaranteed to be traded (flipped) again

Drew Stubbs–otherworldly defensive centerfielder and excellent baserunner; propensity for strikeouts undermines the rest of his offensive game

Joey Votto–one of the best hitters in the game

8 Responses

  1. OctoberAl

    Here’s what I want to know what everyone thinks – – Does Balentien get the start in LF? I agree with what you said about Dickerson, which is why I ask. I think he should. While I’m on the subject, what about Alonso; does he get regular PT or starts?

  2. TC

    I hope they are wrong about Dickerson, Bruce, and Rolen. However, I totally agree with Francisco and Hanigan. I’m not really sure what they are talking about with Phillips. The rest are obvious.

  3. BenL

    pinson343: Scott Rolen is NOT “almost guaranteed” to be traded again, not this year. BP is a much more likely trade candidate.

    Strongly agree… Doesn’t Rolen have a no trade clause? I interpreted this off season’s renegotiation as a “home team discount.” (His family is in Indiana, if I remember.) By my best guess that means no trade.

  4. Dave Massey

    Gotta say, this year’s BP depressed the hell out of me. Usually there are at least a couple blurbs that get me excited to be a Reds fan, but this year it was just a string of “not as good as advertised” paragraphs about the players we’re pinning our hopes on.

    Now that Bruce, Bailey, and Votto are MLB mainstays, we don’t have the same gravitas in AAA, and BP seems to be down on us for that.

    The icing on the cake is what they say about Volquez. Just terrible.

  5. christopher strand

    “Joey Votto: one of the best hitters in the game”

    enough said

  6. Kevin Mitchell is Batman

    @preach: Pessimistic, maybe, but this is also one of the same outlets that suggested that the Reds were a sleeper/breakout candidate every year for the past 3.

    Maybe it’s some reverse karma thing going on this year…whereas we were supposed to break out in years past and didn’t, now we’re not supposed to but we will.

    Screw it. Hopefully it’s motivation for this group.

  7. earl

    Bruce needs to take some notes from Votto and not be afraid to push it the other way with two strikes.

    I think JB is pretty much an out if you can bust him in on his hands.

  8. John

    You guys will LOVE Frazier when he comes up this year. I’ve been watching him play for 16 or 17 tears. A tremendous athlete who can do and has done anything he puts his mind to. I see consistently mentioned that he led his little league team to a world series championship. Some things that are not mentioned. The year before that, he led his Pop Warner football team to a Superbowl victory. The year after, he won the National Pass, punt and kick championship. He also led his conference in scoring and rebounding in HS basketball.