It sounds like Mark Sheldon had to take a rowboat out to sea to catch up with Reds starting pitcher Bronson Arroyo.

Arroyo said that he would be surprised if he were traded this offseason, and offered his reasons why he doesn’t expect any of the big salaried players to be moved:

“In my mind, there was no reason to get [Scott] Rolen [in a July 31 trade] if we’re turning around and moving guys without waiting to see what happens [during the season],” Arroyo said. “I think they’ll give us four months to see if we can compete in the division. If we’re not, we’ll have a big scale back. For now, they seem committed to win.”

Snip…

“I know the budget is tight,” Arroyo said. “But if you re-sign Ramon [Hernandez] for a year, why then go in the other direction? If we were saving, we could have easily had [Ryan] Hanigan catching 130 games next year.”

And how about that carpal tunnel?

“It’s been good and I haven’t felt it at all,” Arroyo said. “I’ve been playing my guitar and haven’t felt it. I have a show with [ESPN’s] Peter Gammons on Jan. 9 and after that I’ll probably stop playing.”

47 Responses

  1. Travis G.

    He sounds like one of us:

    “In my mind, there was no reason to get [Scott] Rolen [in a July 31 trade] if we’re turning around and moving guys without waiting to see what happens [during the season],” Arroyo said. “I think they’ll give us four months to see if we can compete in the division. If we’re not, we’ll have a big scale back. For now, they seem committed to win.”

    Of course, we’re all right about this. I can certainly appreciate that it’s easier for us to spend Castellini’s money than it is for him to do so, but I really wish they were willing/able to spend about $10 million more on an outfielder and/or a starting pitcher. There are going to be some relative bargains in free agency or on the trade market.

  2. Phill

    One thing I like about Arroyo is that he is usually the most honest dude on the team. Just wish his first halves are as good as his second ones.

  3. JustTheFacts

    IMO, The two issues they’d like to address are a 2 or 3 level starting pitcher, and depth off the bench. If they loose Gomes, then one could argue they are back to looking for a LF with pop. But Bronson is right.
    “I think they’ll give us four months to see if we can compete in the division. If we’re not, we’ll have a big scale back.”

    But I’d go even further, if they are not winning by the end of May, Bob and Walt will gut this team to nothing but prospects.

  4. brublejr

    @JustTheFacts: I agree with that 100%…And I think it is the right thing to do if they are in that situation. However, I don’t think the team will be out of it by June so I don’t see it happening. I could really see Coco, Bronson, Harang, and possibly Phillips all gone at the trade deadline next year if the team is out of it by then. Bronson and Harang are both desirable at the deadline because this would be the last year on the contracts (excluding the options).

  5. Joey

    I understand the payroll situation and how everyone is concerned that we are going to trade players like arroyo, Harang, Phillips, Cordero. But I haven’t heard anyone talk about us giving up the farm to compete now.Is it really that far fetched for us to trade Alonso, Heisley, Leake, Wood, for someone like Hanley Ramirez, or an ace type pitcher like Roy Oswalt, or maybe like a packaged deal Hanley Ramirez and Josh Johnson. I’m not saying something like that is going to happen, nor am I saying that I want it to happen, and I’m not advocating for a slew of 100 far out trade scenarios, I’m just wondering is selling our farm which I think a lot of us have assumed some of our players are untouchable, with this management, is it really that crazy to think it won’t happen? Thoughts?

  6. Travis G.

    The Marlins aren’t going to trade Hanley Ramirez, and we don’t have the chips (or payroll space) to acquire Josh Johnson.

  7. GreatRedLegsFan

    I agree, I still don’t understand the Rolen trade, they could just allow those big contracts expire after next season (Arroyo, Harang, Taveras, all good for $27.5MM), deal Cordero ($25MM) and not resign Hernandez (+$3MM) in order to start a new cycle since 2011 and beyond with Volquez, Cueto, Bailey, Wood, Leake, Masset, Hanigan, Alonso, Votto, Frazier, Cozart, Francisco, Heisey, Stubbs and Bruce. Then, with all savings, they could look for key players in the FA market, like a starter, a catcher or a power hitter.

  8. JustTheFacts

    I could be wrong, but I really think we are pretty much going to roll with what we got. We might get one or two acquisitions like Nix or Gomes last year. Or even Hairston and Patterson (Dear God, not Patterson) the year before. But I’m pretty much okay with it. As I recall, this is the team that won all those games at the end of last season.

    • mike

      JustTheFacts: I could be wrong, but I really think we are pretty much going to roll with what we got. We might get one or two acquisitions like Nix or Gomes last year. Or even Hairston and Patterson (Dear God, not Patterson) the year before. But I’m pretty much okay with it. As I recall, this is the team that won all those games at the end of last season.

      I think you’re right. Roll with what we got
      and “acquire” (aka sign free washed up players hoping we catch a bolt of lightning) is probably correct. I expect the Reds to sign a couple cheap, not so good, SS and LF/RF types.

      lets not forget Patterson/Taveras were acquired the same way Nix/Gomes

      as in signing players nobody else wants.

  9. JustTheFacts

    @GreatRedLegsFan: The best part about the Rolen trade was loosing EE. The only thing to caution you about relying on the guys coming up through the farm is very few will actually pan out (we forget that because of guys like Votto and Cueto) and for now, nobody is standing out at the at Billings, Dayton, or Lynchburn levels. I could change my mind, but Walt’s team doesn’t seem to be able to pick the talent and draft as well as the previous two GMs. It’s just not been Walt’s MO.

  10. Joey

    Travis: I wasn’t really intending for those two 3 players that I mentioned to be focused on in that comment. The point of my comment was which I think I made pretty clear was whether or not the reds would be dumb enough to sell the farm away in order to compete this year. But since you missed that let’s think about it for a minute. The Marlins have traded away pretty much every great player they’ve ever had for good young prospects, the reds have good young prospects just saying. Also, Johnson I think is in his second year of arbitration so actually he wouldn’t add that much to the payroll because we would only have him for one year. I don’t think anyone in their right mind would trade away their farm system to get a guy for one year deal. Again, the point of my previous comment wasn’t to focus on the players I’m sure there are a 100 players that could fit this category, my question is are the reds dumb enough to do something like this in an effort to try and compete this year? Thoughts?

  11. Travis G.

    A lot of fans have argued that the Reds were dumb enough to try and compete last July, when they were a dozen-odd games out, so maybe they would be willing to make such a move this winter. I don’t know who’s actually available and for what, but based on this list I don’t see anyone the Reds can afford or who’d be worth giving up all that much. Derek Lowe? No, thanks. They’re better off scouring the free-agent bargain bin for a SP or LF or signing Orlando Cabrera to play short.

    Didn’t mean to jump on you about Ramirez, Joey, but I’m tired of arguing why the Marlins won’t trade the face of their franchise while the taxpayers are finally building them a new stadium. As Dana Carvey once said, “Nah gah dah.”

  12. JustTheFacts

    Joey, I thought you made a good point. But IMO trading some prospects is okay and to some extent healthy for a farm system (depending on who you trade away). You don’t want to have the same situation where you have to add 7 prospects to the 40 man just to protect them from the 5 rule. The system is designed to keep teams (like the Reds) from stockpiler a bunch of players in their minor league system. Better to trade them and get someone who can help you for years to come than have a log jam of players who are almost ready and need spots on the 40 man to be protected until December.

  13. JustTheFacts

    Clarification… (firstly “stockpiling”) The point was, better a bird in the hand than two in the bush.

    Additionally, according to Baseball America’s top 100 prospection, the Reds don’t have many top prospection (Alonso, I believe being the highest Red’s prospect at 35). I’m okay with giving up 2 or 3 prospects for a good guy whom we need in a spot today that will be here for 3 or 4 years.

  14. GregD

    Depends on how the $10 million is spent. There was a story when St Louis acquired Holliday about how they came about the money to make the deal work within their budget. They couldn’t afford him straightup, but they projected a spike of ticket sales resulting from the trade & playing meaningful baseball in September/October, added that to their budget, and found that they could afford him.

    The risk in something like that is that if you do it in the offseason, and for whatever reason the Reds aren’t winning around June/July, the attendence isn’t there either, and your actual income is falling in the opposite direction.

    (I know the Marlins aren’t moving Ramirez) but if the Reds acquired someone like Ramirez,
    – what would it do to season ticket sales?
    – what would it do to their chances of winning? and if it pushes them over .500 how much does the deal pay for itself through continued high attendence/interest in the late months of the season?

  15. Chris

    “In my mind, there was no reason to get [Scott] Rolen [in a July 31 trade] if we’re turning around and moving guys without waiting to see what happens [during the season],” Arroyo said.

    I agree 100% with Arroyo’s logic. I just wish I had believed that the Reds apply the same level of common sense, forethought, and planning. I have no such faith.

    I think Scott Rolen was simply something that Bob Castellini coveted, without any regard for how the acquisition fit into the team’s short- medium- or long-term plans*.

    *Assuming any such plans exist.

  16. Drew Nelson

    Exactly how is the Rolen deal hurt this team? The team played better after his arrival. Player after player commented how he helped the team in ways we don’t see. What player could the Reds have gotten with the money difference between what EE was getting and what we are paying Rolen? We are talking, what about 6-7 million? What kind of player do you think we could have gotten?

  17. David

    I won’t get too much into the Hanley debate as Travis and I have gone rounds on it already. Hanley will be traded by 2011, when his contract will account for 40% of the teams 2009 payroll. Where he goes is anyone’s guess. I’ll leave it at that.

    If I could set the roster, I’d nontender Gomes or sign and trade him. I’d play Francisco in LF, and fill out the outfield with Heisey and Dickerson. I’d allow Frazier to fill the super utility role, playing him 3-4 days per week. Alonso can marinate at 1B in AAA.

    In my mind, the Reds’ biggest concern is pitching depth. I simply don’t trust Lehr, Maloney, Wood, Owings, et al as the fifth guy. For that matter, all of our starters have question marks. The Reds desperately need to add another quality arm. There are a number of guys who could be had on “show-me” incentive based deals. There are a number of guys who are solid #3 or #4 starters. I’d spend the money there.

  18. Drew Nelson

    Wow, I have never been more pleased with the pitching depth we have now. You stress over the 5th spot? How many teams in the ML have great or even good 5th starters? Heck in the mighty Yankees don’t have a quality 5th starter. I am much more concerend over how our mananger will play the day to day players over our pitching staff. All those guys you listed as possible 5th starters are fine with me. Plus we have nice depth in our bullpen. To me if anyone stays reasonably healthy this team can compete with the Cards if Dusty will manage smartly and Walt gets rid of Willy T.

  19. Drew Nelson

    Who are these pitchers out there you speak of that are better then what we have now?

  20. brublejr

    Did anybody else see that Votto finished 22nd in the MVP voting? He scored 1 7th place vote for a total of 4 pts.

    • Travis G.

      brublejr: Did anybody else see that Votto finished 22nd in the MVP voting?He scored 1 7th place vote for a total of 4 pts.

      Yes, three points ahead of Jeremy Affeldt!

  21. preach

    “I am much more concerend over how our mananger will play the day to day players over our pitching staff.”

    Amen. Even if we acquire someone, they will have to fit the cookie cutter mold for their position: ie: a centerfielder must be a leadoff hitter, and our shortstop must bat second. Otherwise, we will be hitting players out of their best spots in the lineup. Sure, that might be a little over-jaded, but not by much.

    I would be thrilled to sign a solid shortstop, but he better be a decent average/OBP guy or we will not get the most out of him because of where he will appear in the order.

  22. al

    I’m in complete agreement with David on this. First, our starting pitching was below average in the NL. Second, go read the great work by JinAZ at Red Reporter and you’ll see that most of what was good about our pitching was actually vastly improved defense.

    Our starting pitchers were actually more like 13th in the NL, but got saved by much better D.

    We’ve been over this on other threads, and the bottom line is the bottom line: we’re not going to spend much money on a FA.

    But, if we did, I’d spend it on a good starting pitcher, like one of these guys:

    Erik Bedard: 153
    Jarrod Washburn: 137
    Joel Pineiro: 133
    Kevin Millwood: 129
    Jason Marquis: 127
    Randy Wolf: 122
    Doug Davis: 121
    John Lackey: 114
    Rich Harden: 109
    Jon Garland: 103

    The rotation would probably start something like Arroyo, Harang, Davis, Cueto, Bailey.

    But in reality, in terms of quality, it would probably be something liek Bailey, Cueto, Davis, Arroyo, Harang.

    When you think about going into the season with Harang as your 5th starter, then you have a rotation. When you are considering justin lehr, you have question marks.

    • Drew Nelson

      wow not one of the guys you listed impresses me given the monies they will command.

      P>Erik Bedard: 153

      Has to many health issues

      Jarrod Washburn:

      Okay but not better then our top 4 and about equal to what we have for our fifth starter

      137Joel Pineiro: 133Kevin Millwood: 129Jason Marquis: 127Randy Wolf:

      Will want more then they are worth and more then the Reds need to spend on pitching.

      121John Lackey: 114Rich Harden:

      Lackey will either stay with the angles, or go to Boston or NY. Way out of our price range

      109Jon Garland:

      How is he better then our top four?

  23. preach

    Does anyone really believe that Bronson will quit playing guitar in January?

  24. Plowboy

    I follow this site every day, and I don’t comment much. But it’s obvious most everyone here has a really good idea of what it takes to have a winning baseball team.

    That said, I know I’m amongst the minority when it comes to the editors (ie. realists), but I’m going to be an optimist: I think that this team is good enough to compete for the division next year. Why?

    This team CAN STAND PAT AND BE VERY COMPETITIVE IF ALL of the boys holding big contracts play up to their potential,IF our young guns can play even close to their potential, AND if they can avoid major injuries.

    Pipe dream? Yeah. But stranger things have happened. They DO have one hell of a strong core.

    Just MAYBE, just once in a long time, things fall in place for the Redlegs this year. It’s happened before…1990 anyone..?

    Come on. Let’s have some hope! Why even bother caring and investing so much time in a game if you don’t think your team has a chance? Seriously, for the first time since 2000, I think they might have a chance to turn the corner…..

  25. Jose

    Daryl thompson taken off the 40 man roster, so espn reports

  26. David

    Drew – There isn’t a single guy in the rotation that I feel absolutely comfortable with every time out. Al names a number of potential guys. There are trade options. For example, the Tigers are practically begging teams to take Edwin Jackson. The point is you can never have too much pitching and if the Reds are going to spend any money it should be on arms. I’ve always been of the opinion that you grow hitters in the farm system and buy arms.

    • Drew Nelson

      Where have you heard that the Tigers are dying to get rid of Jackson?

      We have a ton of pitching, pitching was not our problem last year, scoring runs was.

      David: Drew – There isn’t a single guy in the rotation that I feel absolutely comfortable with every time out. Al names a number of potential guys. There are trade options. For example, the Tigers are practically begging teams to take Edwin Jackson. The point is you can never have too much pitching and if the Reds are going to spend any money it should be on arms. I’ve always been of the opinion that you grow hitters in the farm system and buy arms.

      • brublejr

        Drew Nelson: Where have you heard that the Tigers are dying to get rid of Jackson?We have a ton of pitching, pitching was not our problem last year, scoring runs was.

        The Jackson rumors are everywhere, check out MLB Trade Rumors…

    • Drew Nelson

      So you would want the Reds to trade for Jackson, whom will be a free agent after the 2011 season and given who his agent is, would have no chance of resigning him? So you are willing to give up good young talent for a 2 year rental?

      David: Drew – There isn’t a single guy in the rotation that I feel absolutely comfortable with every time out. Al names a number of potential guys. There are trade options. For example, the Tigers are practically begging teams to take Edwin Jackson. The point is you can never have too much pitching and if the Reds are going to spend any money it should be on arms. I’ve always been of the opinion that you grow hitters in the farm system and buy arms.

  27. JustTheFacts

    I think that this team is good enough to compete for the division next year. Why?

    I’m with you Plowboy. But David I agree with you as well. Other than Volquez, oops, there is no one I feel 100% confident about either. The only one who is close is Cueto, but I hold my breath during the 1st inning every time he goes out as well. How he did in the 1st last year usually indicated how he’d do.

  28. GregD

    I plan to do more with projections this offseason, but I think the list of “IF’s” for this offseason are shorter than years past.

    The thread I linked to above shows what the Reds offense, at that point in the season, would have looked like had they had a league average #1 hitter and a league average #2 hitter. They could have been league average. Insert Scott Rolen, and they could have been a top 5 offense.

    So some of the fundamental questions are:
    – Do they have/will they play an avearge to above-average leadoff hitter?
    – Do they have/will they play an avearge to above-average #2 hitter?
    – Will Scott Rolen stay healthy all year?
    – Can Votto/Phillips at least repeat, if not improve, their 2009 performance?
    – What will the offensive production in the outfield corners look like?

  29. JustTheFacts

    GregD, How about a thread on line ups. Here’s mine:
    1 Dickerson
    2 Votto
    3 Phillips
    4 Bruce
    5 Gomes
    6 Rolen
    7 Janish
    8 Hernandez
    9 Pitcher

    The trouble with it is moving Votto from 3 to 2, and I also don’t necessary like having Hernandez that far down. But I think everyone is protected, and it has the whole Lefty, Righty think that Dusty thinks is so important.

    • Matt WI

      JustTheFacts: GregD, How about a thread on line ups. Here’s mine:1 Dickerson2 Votto3 Phillips4 Bruce5 Gomes6 Rolen7 Janish8 Hernandez9 Pitcher.

      Anybody else see those names and wonder if the opposing teams are going to be celebrating that they only have to pitch to 2/3 of a major league line-up? You get to 7-9 and it’s a bit ugly, Micah Owings notwithstanding.

      Also, JustFacts… I’m not knocking your line-up here, just the bats on the roster in general when you think about having to line them up.

      • Drew Nelson

        Do the hitters batting 7-8-9 on the Stros, Cubs, Cards, Brewers and Pirates strike that much more fear then the Reds? Remember we are competing against some pretty average teams in our own division.

        How good are the Cards when if they don’t resign Matt Holliday?

        Matt WI: Anybody else see those names and wonder if the opposing teams are going to be celebrating that they only have to pitch to 2/3 of a major league line-up? You get to 7-9 and it’s a bit ugly, Micah Owings notwithstanding.Also, JustFacts… I’m not knocking your line-up here, just the bats on the roster in general when you think about having to line them up.

  30. JustTheFacts

    Actually, make that Stubbs at 1. Forgot Dickerson is a lefty.

  31. Redsfanx

    The Reds starting and relief pitching looks good as is. Janish will cover shortstop defensively, that’s for sure. I see left field as the problem and alternating righty/lefty is not the answer. We need a good defensive, plus .280 hitter in left field. Too many runners left in scoring position.

  32. Matt WI

    @Matt WI: To add a thought relating to the thread: I’m afraid standing pat will not end well (i.e. more of the same of the last few season). Whether it’s pitching or a bat, I welcome any move that makes gives this team a true improvement over the net talent we have. No Volquez in the starting pitching line-up scares me most significantly.

    I say call a spade a spade: If we’re not going to add anything much, it’s ok to trade a big contract in the winter instead of going through the motions. Whenever the best deal can be made, work whatever leverage is there.

    • Drew Nelson

      See this is what scares me. We have to make a move? Why? If there is no one out there worth giving up young talent for, then why make a move? Just so we can say, “Hey we made a move”? I believe with good health and a manager who knows whom to play and where, this team is as good as any other team in the central division. To me the issue isn’t who can we add, but who will the manager play and where?

      Matt WI: @Matt WI: To add a thought relating to the thread: I’m afraid standing pat will not end well (i.e. more of the same of the last few season). Whether it’s pitching or a bat, I welcome any move that makes gives this team a true improvement over the net talent we have. No Volquez in the starting pitching line-up scares me most significantly.I say call a spade a spade: If we’re not going to add anything much, it’s ok to trade a big contract in the winter instead of going through the motions. Whenever the best deal can be made, work whatever leverage is there.

      • Matt WI

        Agreed. Hence, I said I welcome a move that brings a legit talent upgrade, I did not say: Hey, let’s make transactions for fun.

        Drew Nelson: See this is what scares me. We have to make a move? Why? If there is no one out there worth giving up young talent for, then why make a move? Just so we can say, “Hey we made a move”? I believe with good health and a manager who knows whom to play and where, this team is as good as any other team in the central division. To me the issue isn’t who can we add, but who will the manager play and where?

  33. GregD

    @Matt WI: Better than last year, when opposing pitchers got a reprieve at spot #7 thru #2 in the order.

  34. earl

    Considering where the pitching staff was at a few years back, we are setup pretty well. I’d say as is, considering we don’t know who the Cards will sign, the Reds are still near the top of the NL Central in pitching.

    The defense as setup now is the best the Reds have had in years.

    The Reds just need to get to be like the Twins or other clubs that make it work with limited funds and learn to work those at bats and get more base runners. I think with just better manipulation of the players we had and the lineup we could have possibly won 6-10 games. Putting those zeros back to back, game after game in front of the guys who were hitting cost the Reds a bunch of close games.

    It is the same as last year, unless Votto and Bruce turn into the big bats, it’s not going to happen. Votto did his job, even missing the 30 games. Jay Bruce is going to have to turn into a big bat and hit 30-40 home runs and be a consistent force in the middle of the lineup. If that doesn’t happen, someone else is going to have a crazy fluke of a year and provide that power.

    If the pitching can do what it did last year with some improvement from Cueto and Bailey along with Votto and Bruce turning into the big bats, I think we could be OK. It is all going to have to click at the same time for it to work and hopefully not have Dusty trip it up with his obsession with the SS batting second and putting people at the top of the lineup that can’t hit their weight or get on base.

  35. Matt WI

    @Drew Nelson: I understand your point… winning the Central is the most likely door to the playoffs. But we’ve been saying how weak the Central is for years… and yet banners are absent from the fences at GABP.

  36. Eric Davis Fan

    @GreatRedLegsFan:

    I agree 100% with your post. Votto and Bruce have the potential to hit 30hr of more if they make it through the season uninjured, I’ll throw Gomes in that mix as well. We need to drop the dead weight but if all of us remember the trades made over the last 10 years have sucked. That’s putting it mildly if you ask me. Arroyo is right, we’ll see the whole house for sale if we aren’t a good way above .500

    GO REDS 2010! :mrgreen: