Every day I think the Reds have hit rock bottom. Then, at some point, I see that Willy Taveras is leading off or somesuch nonsense, and I realize that there’s a long way to go before the Reds really bottom out.
Consider a few numbers:
The Reds are currently 45-60 and in last place.
To reach .500 (we’re going to win now! says the owner), the Reds need to go 36-21. That’s a .632 winning percentage for the rest of the season.
To lose 100 games, the Reds would have to go 17-40 for the remainder of 2009. That’s a .298 “winning” percentage.
The Reds can’t play that poorly for the rest of the year. Can they?
Well, consider this: during July and August, so far, the Reds are 8-22. That’s a .267 percentage. During June, July, and August combined, the Reds winning percentage is just .327.
Yes, there isn’t a question in my mind that this team can lose 100 games. But Walt Jocketty says they’re going to be competitive next year! Be optimistic!