I drew the short straw, and get to evaluate the Reds deadline deals.  After the trades, and last night’s game, I barely have the strength.  I’m also leaving on vacation in a few hours, so I’m going to rely on you guys to flesh this debate out in the comments.

I’ll start with the positives:  The Reds traded Jerry Hairston, Jr. to the Yankees for some guy.  Actually, his name is Chase Weems.  He’s a catcher.  And he’s headed to Dayton.

Now, the main event:  The Reds sent third baseman Edwin Encarnacion and pitchers Josh Roenicke and Zach Stewart to the Blue Jays for third baseman Scott Rolen.  The Blue Jays are reportedly going to defray some salary – the best I can figure it’s the difference between what’s owed to each guy the rest of the year – Rolen’s salary is $11M and EE’s is $2M.

Mark Sheldon put it pretty well:

Perhaps, but Jocketty paid a big price in giving up two young pitchers for Rolen. Roenicke, a reliever that had a 2.70 ERA over 11 games in the Majors, had been one of the prized prospects in the organization and the hardest thrower that often topped out at 98-99 mph. Stewart was a 2008 third-round Draft pick that had reached Triple-A Louisville recently. He was 4-1 this season with a 1.67 ERA in 23 games, including 14 starts at Class-A Sarasota, Double-A Carolina and Louisville.

Walt Jocketty’s take on giving up the arms:

“It was kind of the stumbling block. We finally gave in and decided to give up the pitching,” Jocketty said. “There are a lot of things Scott will provide this club that we felt was lacking — leadership on the field with position players. I had a lot of experience with him obviously in St. Louis. I think he brings a lot to our club.”

I’ve already touched on the veteran leadership thing.  As for the merits of the deal:

  • I think Rolen is playing over his true level right now (a .347 BABIP is inflating his line, sayeth Fangraphs).  I think EE is playing well below his true level.  So Jocketty bought high and sold low.
  • More than the talent involved, I just don’t understand the rationale.  Whether the 3B is EE, Rolen, or Mike Schmidt, he Reds are out of it for this year.  So everything Jocketty gave up is contingent on Rolen’s 2010 contribution.  As I said last night:  Add up EE’s 2011 contributions, the extra $6M you’ll pay Rolen next year, and the entire careers of Stewart and Roenecke.  Whatever that is, Rolen has to be THAT MUCH BETTER than EE in 2010 for it to be worthwhile.
  • AND, the Reds need to be legitimate contenders next year to realize the value of Rolen’s increased production. If all he does is lead a 78 win team to 83 wins, there’s no way to justify the lost talent.

the reds trade their best pitching prospect for a 34-yr old 3b? Can i get a copy of that plan please?

how much faith can you have in a gm that passed arbitration and a 1yr deal to sign edwin for 2yr…including 4.75 next yr…?

and the 4 months later realizes the team is better off without that 3b?

I’m not angry about acquiring Rolen, I’m pissed about NOT acquiring a productive older player of this salary level in the off season. We passed on guys like Bobby Abreu and Jermaine Dye, and pissed away any hopes of contention because the offense was put together with Elmer’s glue and toothpicks. Oh, but now we can afford to take on salary while at the same time dealing away prospects??? There’s no discernable logic when you look at the big picture over the last 12 months.

51 Responses

  1. Bill Lack

    Nice job, Chris….in terms of what the Reds actions have been all season, this deal makes absolutely no sense. And FWIW, I think “veteran leadership” is a bunch of BS…and even if you believe it, is it worth $6M/year?

    This was a panic PR move by the Reds front office…stupidity, IMO.

  2. Glenn

    I couldn’t agree more about the team not obtaining a quality veteran in the off season. Abreu or Dye in the lineup would have done wonders for this team.

  3. De_Here

    I’ve never liked Jocketty….this doesn’t help…I can’t figure out the logic of it at all…and then he has the nerve to say that Rolen is “going to help this team for a long time” on tv last night…how is a 34 year old third baseman with a bad shoulder going to help any team “for a long time”?!

  4. David Lowenthal

    Obviously, reading more about Stewart I’m getting more pissed, but Cy Young caliber? Looking at his minor league stats, what suggests that he’s a #1 starter? Don’t get me wrong, if he’s even a #3 starter than I’m going to have to do something drastic. But I don’t see greatness in the minor league numbers.

  5. mike

    with rolen’s injury history and age what are the odds he plays more than 100 games next year?

    how many regular 3B, SS, or 2B do you know his age?

    prediction. the reds start hot next year, rolen gets hurt after 6 weeks of the season. like this year the reds success is smoke-n-mirrors but rolen doesnt return, ends up retiring and walt has an excuse for why the team fell apart

  6. Tom

    The answer is that this trade doesn’t help. Jocketty got fleeced and made a pointless deal. Any person with any baseball sense knows that you can’t just “give in” as Jocketty so eloquently put it, and add quality young pitching to a deal because you have a thing for Scott Rolen.

    I for one will have a hard time supporting this organization from this point forward until management demonstrates it has an inkling of knowing what the heck it’s doing. It may be a while.

  7. GRF

    Chris, nice job. FWIW, your analysis tracks the BP one:

    Biggest Head-Scratcher

    The Reds had slipped nine games behind the Cardinals heading into last night’s game, and with one of the game’s worst offenses backing a disappointing rotation, seemed like a seller. Then they completed a deal with the Blue Jays to acquire 34-year-old Scott Rolen and the last $15 million (less some undisclosed amount that the Jays are paying) left on an eight-year deal he signed before his body broke down. Rolen is having his best season in some time, and brings a strong glove; however the Reds can’t leverage his talent this year and are unlikely to in 2010, because they simply won’t be good enough. As I put it in chat, it’s as if Walt Jocketty thought, “Hey, the last time I traded for Scott Rolen, my team won the World Series a few years later.” It’s a bad deal for a team that seems to not understand where it is in the success cycle.

    In the offseason there was a lot of concern over how various moves fit into the “plan”. I honestly do not believe there is a plan at this point, which is how you turn into an organization like the Pirates or Royals. And the Pirates at this point have at least realized what they are and where they need to go.

  8. Steve

    I certainly agree that the inability to make a deal for a hitter in the off-season was a huge, fatal failure on the part of the Reds.

    For those of you who don’t see a viable strategy for what the Reds are doing, here is my attempt to describe it:

    The Reds have developed a core of players, mostly young – Votto, Phillips, Bruce, Cueto, Volquez, Bailey, throw in Hanigan and Dickerson – and now they are looking to add some solid, experienced players to that group. None of those players were traded, despite I’m sure, many offers.

    Most of the people who don’t like this trade at least agree that – in isolation – it’s likely Rolen will be better than EE this year, and more importantly, next year – when the Reds want to contend. The baseball analytics that I’ve seen say that Rolen’s defense and probably offense will more than pay for itself in comparing his 2010 salary with that of EE.

    I also haven’t seen Rolen’s statistics adjusted for moving from the AL East to the GABP, although maybe the analysts are factoring that in.

    If Rolen > Encarnacion, then the cost that everyone is concerned about is losing the young pitching, and I agree with that concern. But to me these factors offset it:

    1. Relative scarcity – the Reds have a relatively large stock of young arms, especially for the bullpen. Finding a solid, right-handed bat, with good defense proved very difficult last off-season (the main problem with Abreu, apparently was his defense, although I wish we’d signed him, and said so then).

    2. Unproven major league pitching – Roenicke and Stewart are both good prospects. I’ve liked what Roenicke has done this year with the Reds. I wish he were still on the team. But neither he or Stewart is a slam-dunk success in the big leagues. I know some analysts have tied Stewart to the label “future Cy Young” (and Chris, I don’t know if that qualifies that analyst as being a ‘fanboy’ given how others rate Stewart as good, but with issues). But that is nowhere near a consensus, and fraught with uncertainties at best.

    3. (Yes, I’m going there) Veteran Leadership – I realize these terms have become something to mock on this board, but let me wade in. I’ll agree that not every veteran player provides meaningful leadership, and that some veteran players stink (Alex Gonzalez, for instance). But that doesn’t mean that some players don’t still provide important leadership qualities. The key is finding the right player(s).

    Rolen, by all accounts, is a hard-working, disciplined, focused-on-winning, guy. Jockety has seen that first hand. Other players (like Rob Dibble to name one) seem to agree. How many times have people on this blog complained about the Reds lacking those qualities – ones that can’t be measured by BABIP and LD% and wOBA?

    The analysis provided by Chris of Rolen’s past “lack of leadership” are a couple of incidents over a long career and refer mainly to his relationships with managers and ownership over the direction of the team, NOT a lack of leadership among players.

    Bottom Line: IMO it comes down to whether Rolen can provide the scarce qualities of a solid, experienced, winning veteran to go along with our core of young players, and whether those attributes are more important than what we lost with the two pitchers.

    I’m willing, at this point, to say: we have the future in our young core, we need to use some of our prospects to build a well-rounded team that can win in 2010. I’m optimistic that Scott Rolen was a good choice in that regard.

  9. GregD

    I’ve wondered how much the steriod era player performance would influence GM decisions on how well players play into their 30’s. I was hoping that our GM wouldn’t fall into that trap of thinking players can keep it up and improve into their 30’s.

    I agree with Sultan that I do like Scott Rolen. Always been a big fan. And I’ll also repeat what I said before. If the Reds think that there are better 2010 options at the deadline that won’t be there in the offseason, then they should make a play for that player now – there were several players moved this year that are under contract next year – i.e. not very many 2-3 months rentals. But the price was certainly too steep. And it doesn’t appear that the Blue Jays had anyone else in play for Rolen.

    Is this the Lindner Reds? His teams always gave up too much because the Reds wouldn’t take on salary. I wonder if the Reds could have cut it down to one prospect if they’d paid Rolen’s full salary?

    As for the other deals – when talking to the Mariners, did they ask about AAA catcher Clement?

    When trading 3 relief pitchers, why were none of them veteran David Weathers? Or why were none of the younger guys moved to LAA for Brandon Wood?

    Did spending so much time working out a Rolen deal cost the Reds time in talking to other clubs?

  10. GregD

    the Reds have a relatively large stock of young arms, especially for the bullpen

    I’ll have to re-evaluate what the Reds young arm situation looks like now, but at first glance, with the recent trades and injuries, it is not inspiring that the Reds had to call up Justin Lehr (deservingly) and Kip Wells.

    Here are the recent subtractions
    Manuel, Roencike, and Stewart now traded.
    Volquez 2010 situation – unknown – he’s visiting the surgeon after last night’s bullpen
    Owings – shoulder injury

  11. Dan

    Excellent analysis, Chris. Makes me sad, but I think you’ve pretty much hit the nail on the head.

    Even if Rolen has a great 1.5 seasons here… even if his “veteran leadership” really does help some in ways that are hard to measure… heck, even if he hits .300 next year with 25 HR and 100 RBI and wins a Gold Glove…

    Even if all of that is true, is that really worth 1 season of EE + 5 seasons of Roenicke + 6 seasons of Stewart?

    In my opinion, absolutely not. No way. Terrible deal, especially for a team that needs to be building toward a future. Look where we are — we need to get younger, not older.

  12. Dan

    Larger question… Can GM’s afford to take the long view and do what’s best for the long-term success of a team? Or are their jobs tenuous enough that they NEED to be short-sighted and play for now?

    I’m afraid this is unfounded Castellini impatience playing out.

    I’m also afraid that we will not see an over-.500 team here until Castellini, Jocketty, and Dusty are ALL gone. I wouldn’t have said that a couple days ago. But this trade strikes me as a window into their thinking, and I don’t like it at all. They still have not accepted where this team is. They still think they’re a player away from greatness, and I totally disagree w/ that.

    (They also overvalue “veteran leadership” — so old school — to their own detriment, but that’s another discussion.)

  13. Dan

    Oh, one more angle here that I think is VERY important in any deal… I think clearly, we have sold low on Edwin, and we have bought high on Rolen. Another reason to hate the deal, in my mind.

  14. Dan

    New blog post from someone on BaseballProspectus.com… I’ll just post the final paragraph of it here…

    We’ve all seen herds of pitching prospects fail. There’s a real chance that the Reds will look back and wonder why anyone doubted them, getting an upgrade at 3b for a few dollars more. But there’s also an outside chance that this will be looked upon as a disaster of Liriano/Nathan proportions. The final outcome is highly likely to be somewhere between, obviously. But with the current inflated market value of prospects – especially pitching prospects, who are always somewhat dicey – GM Walt Jocketty certainly undersold his assets. Badly.

  15. doktor

    i dont like this trade either but on the other hand looking at it from another view.

    1. they have committed to the mantra of defense, getting rid of one the worse defensive players on the team for one of the best in the league at the same position.

    2. it also may be sending a message to others on the roster: “play defense better, be prepeared to play, or you too can be traded”.

    3. Rolen may lead by example and set the stage for 2010. I remember when Kirk Gibson signed with the Dodgers and the team tried a prank with him in the 1st spring training game to “welcome him”. He went beserk and said maybe that BS is why they were losers the previous years. The team realized that Gibson was out to win at all times. And, coincidently, they won WS that year, 1988, and he got the league MVP. I dont expect all that from Rolen to happen to that degree but maybe he sets the stage for 2010 playoff run.

    Go (2010) Reds.

  16. per14

    Great analysis and Sultan’s comment is really the nail in the coffin: I think WJ is clueless, which is hard to say considering his past success, but the illogic of this deal, in the context of the past 6 months, is mind-boggling.

  17. KY Chip

    From reading between the lines of Jocketty’s statement about ‘finally gave in and decided to give up the pitching’, it certainly sounds like the Blue Jays asking price for Rolen was a high one — EE and Yonder Alonso, as was reported earlier in the day yesterday. Walt decided to keep Yonder, but then had to surrender two good young arms to swing the deal. That price was still too high, but WJ pulled the trigger anyway. Why?

    It’s all about perceptions. Last year at the trade deadline, and in the weeks that followed, the Reds were sellers, giving up Griffey and Dunn. Promises were made that the team was moving in a new direction. But then the off-season brought only Hernandez and Taveras, plus several other cast-off players looking for a fresh start or one more chance to play in the majors. It also brought more promises of moving in a new direction — “defense and speed”, a strange choice for a team that plays half its games in a hitter’s park. Fans clamored for a powerful RHB, but none came. And even Walt was disappointed he couldn’t land a RHB for the middle of the lineup.

    Now, with Scott Rolen, he has one, albeit three months too late for it to make any difference in the Reds’ 2009 season.

    Rolen was a known commodity for WJ, a player he was familiar with from his days with the Cardinals, who wanted to be closer to his home in Indiana. And Rolen’s availability made EE expendable, much to the delight of many Reds fans. After trading away two of the most popular Reds last year at the trade deadline, the Reds front office couldn’t be seen as sellers again this year, or even satisfied with standing pat. Something had to be done, some move had to be made to show the fans “we’re trying to build a winner”. So, trade for Rolen, a RH batter and definite upgrade at 3B.

    Casual fans will be impressed with the Rolen trade — he’s a “name” who has “veteran leadership”. And that has the possibility of putting some more fans in the seats for what promises to be yet another late-season slide for our beloved Redlegs. Hardcore fans, however, will see this for what it is — a desperate attempt by a directionless front office to alter the perception of this franchise by adding a player whose brief stay in Cincinnati can in no way replace the 11 seasons-worth of young pitching given up to get him.

  18. JerBear

    I think relievers like Roenicke are sort of a dime a dozen. The hardest thing in baseball is probably to put together a good bullpen. Jared Burton was awesome last year…this year he kind of stunk. It’s hard to predict especially with young guys how they will pan out.

    Stewart and just the quanity of players given up is what worries me a little bit.

    I also don’t think we have this bevy of young arms in our system that some people keep mentioning. Who after Travis Wood is a real prospect in our system?

    As was mentioned…Volquez is in doubt for next year…his career may be in doubt. Homer is a question mark. Cueto talented but struggling. There’s not the depth we once thought we had.

    With all this being said, there’s a part of me that really likes this trade. lol I was so tired of Edwin Encarnacion. I feel he was sizeable part of the problem in our offense, and defense too really. The problem though is we’ve still got Taveras and Alex Gonzalez and Laynce Nix starting every game too! The great starting pitching in the beginning of the year masked how terrible our starting 8 was. I think we all knew it, but we were winning and thinking well maybe this is just one of those magical teams.

    I don’t know what to think in the end…I look at the Indians trading 2 great players, Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez, and there’s a large part of me that is thinking, that is the way to do it. The Indians have done it before. Been terrible for a year or two…rebuilded…back in the playoffs.

    The Reds seem to be one of those franchises in a vortex spinning in an endless cycle. They have just enough prospects and a few really good players that maybe with a few additions they could turn the franchise around. But it seemingly leads to empty and wasted seasons where they win 72-78 games, hold on to their high priced stars, and receive no prospects at the trading deadline to rebuild their team.

    Maybe there were no oppurtunities for this to happen…but I wonder if the Reds would have been willing to trade Cordero and Brandon Phillips if moves like that could have brought back real prospects, and a real committment to youth.

    People say this team is young and on their way…the core is young we always hear…but who is to say the core of this team is not comprised of Taveras, Gonzalez, Nix, Gomez, Hannigan, Hernandez, Harang, Arroyo, Rhodes, Weathers, etc.? Our best players are young, but the team is comprised of older players in age, and young veterans like Taveras who don’t seem to have much ceiling.

    In the end I have come to no conclusion. haha…this deal for Rolen could be a terrible deal. I understand both sides of the argument. The timing is what makes the least and most frustrating sense. They waited till the Reds were at their lowest point of the year and totally out of the race to improve the current roster. It seems like backwards thinking….Either Walt Jocketty is a genius, or he’s lost his ability to make quality judgements when rebuilding a club.

    We shall see.

  19. Tom Diesman

    The big question here is whether the 34 year old Rolen will be healthy enough to earn his $11M next season. I’m shocked that they were willing to make a laterel trade at a position for a marginal gain. I know Rolen will out field Encarnacion, but I’m not convinced he will be a offensive improvement, I’m not convinced that he will be able to dodge the injury bug, and I’m pretty sure Encarnacion will be putting up a .800+ OPS for years after Rolen is retired. Factor in his age and immenent decline, he’s a very risky acqusition. We’ve now dealt off some of our pitching prospects to fill a position that was not one that needed filled. We have less resources now to fill the holes at CF, LF, SS, and C that require immediate potential. This is the kind of move you make to fill the last remaining hole to put you over the hump into the playoffs, except we made the move with the hopes to aspire to our first .500 season in who know how long. I’m pretty depressed right now about the state of the Reds. They seem very misguided and out of sorts, I think we are the new Pittsburgh Pirates. It’s just sad.

  20. NYCRedsfan

    man, all you guys have done all year is moan about how bad encarnacion is defensively and what a liability he is at 3rd base. half a scott rolen is a major upgrade both offensively and defensively. as for veteran leadership, rolen is a winner and nobody in the reds organization has a clue about winning. also, roenicke is a middle reliever who took 5 or 6 seasons to reach the majors. he ain’t that great. and maybe zach stewart’s arm falls off before he gets anywhere near his potential. i think it’s a good trade. at least jocketty is trying to improve the club. scott rolen is a good, solid fundamental baseball player, something this club has a real short supply of right now.

  21. Matt Steele

    how could we have moaned about how bad encarnacion has been defensively when he’s been hurt for about half the season so far?

    But NYCRedsfan… the point isn’t that we hate Rolen. Most of us like him and agree that he’s an upgrade. However the trade was a bad move because we gave up a lot and we’re taking on a lot of salary. If we wanted to trade Roenicke and Stewart, I think we could have gotten someone else who might be cheaper, younger and just as good. I don’t “hate” this trade like some other people do, but I think we definitely “bought high” on Rolen and “sold low” on our guys.

    Here’s Keith Law’s top ten prospects who were moved at this trading deadline

    http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=4371230&name=law_keith

    Stewart is #4

    Roenicke is #6

    However Law thinks that only Brett Wallace is a high impact prospect. He thinks that either Stewart or Roenicke is the Blue Jays closer of the future now.

  22. the real mccoy

    All we have been doing as Reds fans for the last ten years is wait on prospects. Have you not realized that most don’t work out. Give Rolen a chance. Jocketty inherited a mess. Baker inherited a mess, even though he creates some at times with his bad line-up cards. Maybe Castellini will drop some coin after this season. Maybe Rolen will come in and not put up with this b.s. and get on some guys… my point is give it a chance…Baker got his hard nosed vet..lets see what happens. Put the stats and numbers aside and roll with it…for the current moment it is a plus. For me personnaly I’ll take a double with two out and two on from a vet professional…maybe the young guys can learn from his approach.

  23. shane

    You’d *think* that, but you weren’t at the table and don’t know what was being said or offered. I sorta think that if there had been a great deal of interest in Stewart or Roenicke this deal would have never happened. Also, this deal is only bad if Stewart and/or Roenicke pan out and shine. If they crap out then its an even better deal and we don’t know what either of them will be in a couple of years.

  24. John

    From a Jay’s fan perspective, I am sorry to see Rolen go but I am happy to get pitching back. I wouldn’t be overly worried about his injuries if I was a Red’s fan though. It seems as though his swing was a reason why his shoulder was always hurt. He changed his swing at the end of last season and the change is a big reason why his home run numbers are down and will likely not ever go back up to what he had in his prime.

    Enjoy his glove and his throws to first. Hopefully this works out for both teams. I hate seeing teams lie the Red’s with good fans struggle indefinitely.

  25. Steve

    Here’s the lineup for today, with Rolen in it.

    Sutton 7
    Gonzalez 6
    Votto 3
    Phillips 4
    Rolen 5
    Gomes 9
    Nix 8
    Hanigan 2
    Bailey 1

    I can’t believe that we haven’t brought up Stubbs to play CF and bat lead off with WT unable to play. Sutton is not an OF and not much of a lead off hitter. Stubbs has the virtue of apparently being the best defensive CF we have in the organization.

    Once again, Hanigan, the guy with an OBP of .405 is batting 8th. Baker still can’t fill out a line up card.

    Go Homer!

    Go Reds! New winning streak starts today, right Chad?

  26. mdccclxix

    “1. they have committed to the mantra of defense, getting rid of one the worse defensive players on the team for one of the best in the league at the same position.

    2. it also may be sending a message to others on the roster: “play defense better, be prepeared to play, or you too can be traded”. ”

    ^^^^^^^^^this^^^^^^^^^^
    Your plan is pitching and defense. EE was so miserable at defense and Rolen is so much better it was enough to pry bullpen pitching away. They have a strong bullpen. Trade from strength.

    “The Reds seem to be one of those franchises in a vortex spinning in an endless cycle. They have just enough prospects and a few really good players that maybe with a few additions they could turn the franchise around. But it seemingly leads to empty and wasted seasons where they win 72-78 games, hold on to their high priced stars, and receive no prospects at the trading deadline to rebuild their team.

    Maybe there were no oppurtunities for this to happen…but I wonder if the Reds would have been willing to trade Cordero and Brandon Phillips if moves like that could have brought back real prospects, and a real committment to youth.”

    I would listen to offers on anybody if I was Walt. Phillips, Volquez, Cueto, anybody. What has been proven? You sell high or you end up in a tight spot especially if you don’t have 80-90 mil in payroll. Should’ve sold Arroyo or Harang after 2007 when some younger pitching was coming up. Would’ve been balsy, but that’s assuming they’dve not gotten anything of value in return.

    Sell high!

    I’d say EE was a sell high in the sense that TOR would like to believe they’re getting the 900 ops EE post injury. His reputation as a horrible 3b has chased him down though.
    Unfortunately, Rolen was bought high.

  27. Travis G.

    it’s as if Walt Jocketty thought, “Hey, the last time I traded for Scott Rolen, my team won the World Series a few years later.” It’s a bad deal for a team that seems to not understand where it is in the success cycle.

    I realize you’re probably joking, but I don’t think it’s like that at all. I think he just really thought Rolen could contribute on the field and off.

    I think we probably gave up too much (although I’ve yet to see the actual amount of cash definitively confirmed, so we still don’t really know what Rolen will cost), but I think this team needed a veteran hitter for the young guys to lean on. Of course, he should have been here to start the season, but that’s always easier said than done.

    I still think this team is closer to contention than it looks right now, but there are still gaping holes to fill. Third base is no longer one of those, and it’s unlikely that we’ll miss more than one of Stewart or Roenicke.

  28. NYCRedsfan

    steve

    they won’t bring up heisey or stubbs until september because they don’t want to start the arbitration clock in a probably already lost season

  29. AnnapolisRed

    #11-Angels would not trade Brandon Wood in a deal for Halliday they sure as hell weren’t going to trade him for any of the Reds players.

  30. AnnapolisRed

    #13-That is conjecture at this point. What makes you think that Roenicke is going to pitch for five years or Stewart for six? I will not miss E5E5, I know that. I’m not saying I love this trade (I don’t), but I think there has been a bit of a overreaction. We shall see I guess.

  31. bird2431

    NYCRedsfan,

    Im almost positive that bringing up heisey or stubbs this late into the year is not going to affect their arbitration clock…

    Correct me if im wrong guys.

    The reason that they are not coming up (and it is a legit reason) is so that they get more playing time to improve instead of sitting on the bench, because we all know that WT is gonna start as much as possible…

  32. David Lowenthal

    Whether the Reds have a lot of pitching or not isn’t the point. The point is you don’t trade away that pitching for a guy that you aren’t even certain will be a net upgrade in 2010. If they wanted to upgrade, again, and get Rolen’s equivalent who’s an OF (not exactly sure who that is, but you get the idea), then the move makes at least some sense. This move really doesn’t make sense.
    The Reds OF is the worst that I can ever remember, and that includes the Householder/Duane Walker/Cesar Cedeno OFs from the very early 80s.

    Remarkably, Keith Law said the Reds were “on the fringes” of contention this year. That’s a large fringe.

  33. AnnapolisRed

    #14-Dan great point and that very well could be true. That’s why I’m not a big fan of everybody bashing Jocketty for this trade. We have no clue what is going on behind closed doors. Now if you want to bash him for not doing something about Dusty’s line-ups, well bash away.

  34. bird2431

    maybe it was the options that i was thinking of…

  35. AnnapolisRed

    #22-No, most of this board actually loves EE.

  36. Drew Nelson

    Those who don’t “buy into vet leadership” are those who live and die by the “numbers game”. You can’t put a VL into a formula, you can’t rank it and that bugs them. Players and managers believe in it and well they are the one playing the game. The only issue with this trade is health. If Scott can stay healthy and give the Reds 135-145 games then the deal is good. Neither pitcher was ever going to be more then bullpen pitchers, which many here have said can be found very easily.

  37. AnnapolisRed

    The best thing Jocketty can do to improve the Reds is get rid of Dusty and the entire coaching staff.

  38. Glenn

    I know the Reds paid a heavy price to obtain Rolen but darn it, I was getting real tired of this offense making journeyman pitchers look like Cy Young award winners.

    IMO EE was not getting any better, his defense has cost the Reds quite a few runs during his stay here. Its just getting old waiting for the lineup to turn over to see if Votto and Phillips could put anything on the board. The left side of the infield and most of the outfield have done nothing with the bat this year. Gonzo won’t be back next year, so there maybe some room in the payroll to bring in a quality shortstop.

    This team needed a bat and some defense in the worst way. Were there better or cheaper deals out there? I have no idea, but my GUESS is that there weren’t or WJ would have taken them. This deal may turn out to be absolutely awful for the Reds, but a bold move had to be taken. Continuing to do what they had been doing was not getting it done, and another season has been wasted.

  39. justcorbly

    You can’t have “a plan’ to improve a ball club. Far too much is out of everyone’s control, especailly what the competition is doing.

    EE might go on hit .350 the rest of the way. Or, he might fall off the dugout and break his leg. Stewart might have Cy Young potential, but a quick thought reminds us that almost all hot pitching prospects cool down a lot, if not disappear altogether. Potential doesn’t win ball games.

    You make what you think are the best deals on a given day. Tomorrow, everything changes.

    Now, I’ll agree that the ability to judge talent, and to assess a team’s strengths and weaknesses, as well as bargaining skill, are attributes of good management. But, rolling out a plan? Not so much.

  40. Steve Price

    Getting Rolen does not make the offense better; it remains the same.

    It does make the defense better in the 100 games he will play next year. I guess Drew Sutton will play the other 62. We probably need to divide Rolen’s salary by by .375 to get his true cost per game since he will play 5/8 of the games.

    Relievers are easy to find. So, we trade the inexpensive ones and keep the guys making $20 million and then complain about “small markets” and not being able to sign hitters.

    I’m waiting the Rolen contract extension within the next week.

    Also..young teams don’t get better signing older players (the “leadership”) until they are contenders (see Greg Vaughn….)

    Old players get worse, not better. This is Rolen’s bounce back year…that means he’ll bounce backwards next year.

    Our minor league does not have that many strong arms…

  41. Steve Price

    Oh, yeah…Jocketty has had plenty of time to make a difference.

    Bob Howsam turned over an entire roster (except for 5 of 25 players) in two seasons in 1968
    while drafting the future.

    Excuses excuses excuses…

  42. earl

    This would have been the deal to make in 2002. I’m sure there is a bit of hope that Rolen might bring in a few people from southern Indiana to see a game, but he was never that big a star.

    This could end up being one of those trades that looks ugly ugly if these guys pan out on career value. Sometimes no one gets much out of these things like the trade with the Nationals a few years back with Lopez & Kearns.

    Roenicke looked pretty good, the best of the rookie relievers that had been up. I was thinking he might be the setup guy next year.

    There seems to be some hubbub that the Jays GM failed by not dealing Holiday, but I think he did OK. He got younger at third with two good young arms and was able to keep a Cy Young caliber starter.

  43. MikeC

    Walt convinced his old bud from the Cardinal days, Castelini, that the team was on the verge. So Castelini dumped Krivsky, who was bulding for the future and had the farm system stocked. Krivsky rebuit a disastrous bullpen by signing Cordeo and Weathers. Other than that, he made a few deals on the margins (Gonzo) of the team, trying to get them through until the farm system started delivering.
    Although Rolen is definitely an upgrade over EE, it looks like Walt is trying to prove he was the right choice for GM by trading away the farm. With the bullpen still depending heavily on old guys, Harang faltering again and the rotation getting hit by injuries, trading young pitching prospects is definitely questionable.

  44. GreatRedLegsFan

    a) The Hairston deal: Don´t see the need for another catcher, having already Hernandez, Hanigan, Tatum, Miller and Mesoraco. WJ trade a very usefull and cheap player for a youngster guy who maybe even won’t be a major league player.

    b) The Rolen deal: It was a steal. Rolen will play two or three seasons more, at the most, while the Reds gave up two young and almost major league level pitchers, the highest price commodity.

  45. preach

    I go to arizona for a few days and all this happens?

    This only improves our club if rolen can play ss.

    I still say look at figgens and crosby. of course with third ‘covered’ it makes figgens less appealing, but with the departure of jhj, we could use an all purpose guy.

  46. AnnapolisRed

    Rolen is so much better than EE it isn’t even funny. The key to the deal is to see how Roenicke and Stewart do. If they are successful then it wasn’t a good deal, if they aren’t then it is a good deal. I am not in the camp that says we will miss EE in two years.

  47. Glenn

    I’m so down on this team right now, I’m not sure this organization is even capable of improving no matter what it does.

  48. Glenn

    You hit the nail on the head Annapolis.

  49. Chris Garber

    Now, I’ll agree that the ability to judge talent, and to assess a team’s strengths and weaknesses, as well as bargaining skill, are attributes of good management. But, rolling out a plan? Not so much.

    Do that with a $100M business, and you get . . . well, 15 years of losing records and multi-million-dollar losses.