I wish this guy were playing left field for the Reds right now.

(Editor’s note: I gotta do some of these posts for myself. 🙂 )

51 Responses

  1. Steve Price

    I’m with you, Chad. One of the most underrated players in Reds’ history…

  2. Chris

    This team never won anything with him, so good riddance.

    Plus, he couldn’t hit a sacrifice fly to save his life.

  3. AnnapolisRed

    Perhaps the trade has motivated him. He is certainly off to a great start.

  4. Marty the Cynic

    Chad does not respect my sanity

  5. nick in va

    I think it was probably best for Dunn to be signed by someone other than Cincinnati. Good for him. I still enjoy the Nationals losing though. With leatherpants gone I guess I shouldn’t root against them as much, but it’s hard.

  6. Matt Steele

    Hopefully he’ll be on a team that makes the postseason at some point. He’s had the misfortune of being on some bad teams in his career so far.

  7. Chad Dotson

    Jason–

    Judging by that picture beside your face, you don’t look irritated at all!

    😀

  8. JerBear

    I wish Adam Dunn the best. I thought Griffey wasn’t the greatest example for Dunn. The two of them are not clubhouse leaders, or the type of players you want leading your club, and yet they were the Reds clubhouse leaders. I don’t say that in a mean way. I just don’t think they were the leader type, and when you already had little talent like they had the last thing the Reds needed were 2 guys who just hit HRs and played below average defense lead your team in the clubhouse. They were more a victim of terrible pitching and a bad surrounding cast over the years, but they were also part of the problem.

    Dunn could be extremely valuable to a team chasing a playoff spot, but it’s interesting that he is having a great year for the worst team in baseball…you can have Dunn and his great year on a 13-30 team and I’ll take the castoffs the Reds have playing in left field on decent team.

  9. Steve Price

    Jeff Keppinger is also batting .313 with almost a .400 OBP and an OPS of 882. And, he’s been mainly playing third base for the Astros. He’s not a starter, but it looks like they’re using him about right.

    He would also make a really nice #2 hitter behind Tavares in the lineup since he makes nearly constant contact.

    He could have been our bat off the bench and Dunn could have been our slugger in LF.

  10. Steve Price

    Oh, for the record…has anyone noticed that Dickerson’s OBP is now .372?

    I hope Dusty if finding the right way to use him..not as a starter, but as a role player.

  11. Mark in CC

    “He’s had the misfortune of being on some bad teams in his career so far.”

    He certainly did a nice job for that bad team Arizona last year. Oops they were in first place when he got there and he led them to second. I am sure there must be some excuse he had there too.

  12. Pasha

    This thread is a rorschach test for crazy.

    It’s also a good way to figure out which poster’s comments i should read and which i should skip…

  13. wanderinredsfan

    Dunn’s a gamer, and the haters just didn’t like his expressions on his face, or they had too lofty expectations for him. Not all our prospects can be the second coming of Pete Rose. Another reason why EE is the next scape-goat to get shown the door without a serious consideration to rationale thought. Write it down: EE will come back, take time to get his swing together, we’ll go on a losing streak, and the blogs and broadcasters will be on fire calling for his head.

  14. Mr. Redlegs

    Here’s what I don’t like about Dunn: he can’t hit. And if you’re going to be a middle of the order guy and make $10 million, ef’n hit.

    Dunn with the Nationals:

    In 179 plate appearances in which he did not homer, he has only 30 hits (.167) and just 12 RBI.

    So if those 14 at-bats where he homers excites you for $10 mil a year while he stands up there taking strike three down the middle of the pipe. . . .

  15. Dave in Mason

    Remarkable. I swear that I thought I was on Fay’s blog for a second. One player does not make that much of a difference. It is the 24 other players that help in that. But you only need one for a scapegoat. X(

  16. AnnapolisRed

    Keppinger’s career OBP is .339 with a .393 slugging percentage and a .789 OPS

  17. Tom Diesman

    Hey, good point Annapolis, that makes Keppinger better than our current leadoff hitter. Maybe we should have kept him.

  18. Bill Lack

    Yeah, Dunn’s 889 OPS (127 OPS+) was the reason that Arizona faded…makes perfect sense to me. Just like blaming him for the Reds losing the years he was here…didn’t have anything to do with the pitching. Yeah, this irritates me…

    And those that claim to know what goes on inside the clubhouse or what motivates a player…that irritates me…

    I do know that he put up outstanding power numbers and played every day, through any number of injuries; yet never got the respect for being a very good (not great) player. Yet players like Sean Casey, who couldn’t carry his jock on the field are worshiped. Yeah, that irritates me too.

    So, Chad, your post worked…now I’m irritated. But I wish he was still patrolling LF for the Reds also.

  19. JasonL

    I loved Adam Dunn when he was here, and I’d be happy to have him on the team… BUT he is god-awful in the field and not getting any better. Look at WAR on fangraphs. If you combine the numbers for the players the Reds have had in left (Dickerson, Hairston, Gomes, and Nix), they actually come out as being more valuable than Dunn.

  20. per14

    Blaming Dunn for the Reds losing the last 8 years is like saying that the Big Red Machine *only* won because of Cesar Geronimo. It’s that illogical. But, hey, poor logic has never stopped Reds’ fans.

  21. GregD

    Redlegs #17, I know you know that avg is H/AB, not PA. Including PA for Dunn only dilutes the “statistic” you are trying to create because he leads the league in walks.

    Why do anti-Dunners always want to give his statistics without the HR? Here’s his avg w/o HR. Here’s his RBI w/o HR.

    Here’s the AVG for top 5 HR hitters in the NL w & w/o HR:
    0.352 0.277 (Ibanez)
    0.282 0.204 (Gonzalez)
    0.284 0.213 (Dunn)
    0.327 0.257 (Pujols)
    0.228 0.164 (Bruce)

    What does any of this prove? That for each slugger, HR hits are about .070-.080 of their AVG. And that for a lot of Reds fans, .280 w/ a bunch of singles makes a better player.

    4.11
    4.86
    5.75
    5.85
    7.24

    The ERA of the 5 Nationals starters who have made the most starts in 2009. (at least 7 each)

  22. GregD

    BTW – I’ve read a couple of stories out of Seattle this season that Griffey has been a great clubhouse presence/influence.

  23. AriochRIP

    I know how many people love to disregard batting average, but my view on Adam Dunn has always been very simple – if he can hit me .260, I’d live with him in left field for the rest of his life. But if he’s going to hit .235, .240, .245…he just ain’t worth it, no matter how often he walks or what his obp is. Hitting .280 (like he is now) and I miss him too!

  24. per14

    Uh…the difference between .260 and .245 is 7.5 hits over the course of 500 ABs. That many hits makes a difference between “he’s good for the rest of his life” and “he just ain’t worth it”??

    I like Dunn. But I’m not too sad that’s he’s gone. But, I just can’t figure out why so many people resort to silly arguments to justify their dislike of him.

  25. GRF

    Does anyone have the graphic of the guy holding his head with the caption “Not this [email protected]#! again”?

    I fell into the camp that really liked he who shall no longer be named. Of course, I lived out of town and saw box scores and stats, not much of his live play. But at this point are any of us going to convince anyone on the other side to change their mind? I know I am never going to buy that he is the reason the Nationals are awful (and really, a look at the rest of that roster should end that discussion in a hurry) or that Arizona did not win their division, but I am pretty sure I am not going to convince anyone that we would be a playoff team this season if we had brought him back.

    By the way, I think Chad is giggling maniacally at the pain this thread is causing. Sick, twisted genius.

    And by the way again, Steve’s point about Keppinger is a very good one. With all the injuries, he would be looking pretty nice as the utility guy about now.

  26. Mark T

    I was intrigued by Moneyball, and the numbers that Dunn put up do not lie. He is productive, and yet … he doesn’t inspire young players, he doesn’t put the ball in play often enough, and doesn’t hit sacrifice flies. Moneyball says he is gold, and yet it just doesn’t work out that way with the guy. He’s doing more fro the Nats than he did for the Reds, and they are struggling.

    Somehow, Chad, the stats are not reaching you … the most important stat of all – W/L. It changed when Dunn left. It doesn’t figure statistically, but it does say that you are missing something very important. You need to rethink.

  27. JoseOle

    Adam Dunn = Rob Deer.

    For those of you too young for the reference Rob Deer was a power hitter for very bad Detroit teams that hit below .250 but was close to the leaders in HRs. Dunn is the same and is not a winner. He would never fit with what the current team is doing, and doing well. Johnny Gomes had more RBI without hitting a HR over the weekend than Dunn did for Months in the seasons he was a Red, at 1/20th the cost.

  28. brublejr

    Dunn and Kepp aren’t fast and didn’t play “good” defense so they were shipped out. I’d like both of them on the team. The decided to get rid of Dunn because they didn’t think he was worth the money, which I agree, he isn’t worth close to the 15 mil range he was going to ask for. What the Nats paid is getting closer to what he is worth. If the Reds had re-signed Dunn then it would have been much harder to sign the young stars to contracts (Votto, Bruce, Volquez, Cueto).

    So…All in all, if letting Dunn go was a cost move to sign those 4 long term…it was the best decision for the team. IF they don’t sign those four to contract extensions, then it wasn’t a good move to get rid of Dunn in my opinion.

  29. Matt WI

    That’s an interesting take brublejr… take the hard cut of Dunn to sign the youth. 1 will never equal 4. I’d sure like to see those four locked up.

  30. AnnapolisRed

    Tom-Fair point, but people were talking about hitting Keppinger third.

  31. GregD

    Are those players even arbitration eligible before 2011? And the expensive years of the contract are typically th 2nd and/or 3rd year of arbitration and any free agency years you buy out.

  32. Chad Dotson

    By the way, I think Chad is giggling maniacally at the pain this thread is causing. Sick, twisted genius.

    😉

  33. brublejr

    Arbitration is not always cheap the first couple of years especially when you are talking about players like Votto…just look what Howard has gotten in arbitration.

    I was just saying, you got Harang, Arroyo, Phillips, and Cordero all with lofty contracts, you add Dunn then it is going to be hard to lock up that many young guys and frankly I want all 4 of those guys locked up.

    Lastly, I wish they could get Votto locked up like Braun and Longoria. The others I am not as worried about locking up right away, but I am afraid that Votto may play himself past what the Reds could afford by the end of his arbitration years.

  34. Matt WI

    Again, agreed bruble. Ryan Braun signed for a song up here in Wisconsin. Now, you could also get burned, Travis Hafner style, so there’s that.

  35. pinson343

    Nice article about Dunn, none of it surprises me, it was how I always saw him.
    I miss the Big Guy, thought he got a bum rap in Cincinnati.

    But I like these new Reds and am moving on.

    The one situation I think of Dunn is in extra innings, he won so mamy extra inning games with HRs. Someone ought to look that up, not just his walkoff homers, but the number of times he hit an Xtra inning HR in the top an inning to win it. Off hand I remember games against the Brewers, Astros (twice ?), and Braves, I know there were more.

  36. per14

    “…the most important stat of all – W/L. It changed when Dunn left. It doesn’t figure statistically, but it does say that you are missing something very important. You need to rethink.”

    The 1971 Reds were under .500. Lee May had an OPS + in 1971. Then Lee May was traded. The 1972 Reds won 94 games. I guess Lee May was holding the ’71 Reds back.

    Is that absurd? Of course it is–there were several other factors in play. And it’s just as absurd as saying the Reds are better this year merely because Dunn is gone.

    “Johnny Gomes had more RBI without hitting a HR over the weekend than Dunn did for Months in the seasons he was a Red…”

    How about you find some of the months and show them to us?

    bublejr, I commend you. You’ve actually put forward a cogent argument for why getting rid of Dunn was the right move. And I agree with you.

  37. per14

    *** …Lee May had an OPS + of 147 in 1971…

  38. brublejr

    The difference in Hafner is he signed as an aging star with a profile that fit in with players that all flamed out in their early to mid 30’s, plus just coming into steroid testing…Injuries can always be a question but if you sit on your hand like the Phillies did with Howard you will get burned that way too.

    Either way I hope Votto is a Red for a long time

  39. Dan

    I have a meta-question here… Why does a thread about Adam Dunn STILL get 43-plus posts?

    I mean, I like the guy and all… but what is it about him? Serious question actually.

  40. Travis G.

    I think Dunn serves as a flashpoint for the argument over stats vs. observation. His value shows up in the stats, but his weaknesses are readily observable. He also had the misfortune of serving as the face of the franchise during a period of management instability, horrid pitching and lousy bench depth.

    Also, a lot of fans seem to think only philistines appreciate home runs, while true connoisseurs appreciate sacrifice bunts. Why not enjoy both?

  41. GRF

    I think Travis nailed all of it. I was watching from afar and was a Dunn fan. My dad and brother were in Cincinnati and would go nuts when I brought him up. Statistical analysis versus scouting, production versus intangibles, offense versus defense, the value of leadership, all the post Moneyball debates seem to have been embodied in him. And I personally think that as the “face of the franchise” at the time, he became a magnet for the frustration that built up after it became apparent that the Griffey signing was not going to bring us a championship.

  42. earl

    It is too late to turn back now, so I don’t worry about it now. Even though Dunn signed with the Nationals for a good deal for them, I tend to doubt he would have taken a similar contract from Cinci.

    I’m glad that the Reds got something for him in Micah Owings when they dealt him off.

    Adam Dunn is quite a bit better player than Rob Deer. Adam Dunn is a heck of alot closer to some HOF guys like Reggie Jackson or Harmon Killebrew or maybe Frank Howard than Deer. The hitter I think Dunn is close to is a guy like Jim Thome. You stick Adam Dunn batting behind Manny Ramierez, you’d probably see that batting average come up 10-15 points and add a few more doubles making them even closer by comparison.

  43. JerBear

    I still like Keppinger. Good role player and can hit. I really do wish Dunn the best! I think some of the criticism about his desire to win was wrong and misguided. I just think he’s never been on a team with people to lead him. It’s too bad he is on a terrible team.

  44. Tom

    I prefer the Dunn-less scrappy Reds. Walks and strikeouts and lackadaisical defensive play doesn’t get it done for me.

  45. GregD

    If Dunn were on this team, they’d still be winning. Because they didn’t win while he was here, you somehow associate it as “his fault”.

    Yet no one assigns that same blame to Harang.

    Nor did Rockies fans blame Todd Helton for their 9 consecutive seasons of finishing 4th or 5th from 1998-2006(they were below .500 8 of those 9 seasons, and only 82-80 in 1 above 500 season.)

  46. christopherstrand

    Walks and homeruns, that my friends is what it’s all about.

    Not a game goes by without me saying I wish we had Adam Dunn.

    Wow he is a great player..how can anyone possibly hate the guy??

  47. GregD

    From 2001-2008, the Reds allowed, on average, 845 runs per season, or more than 5.2 runs per game.

    A little more than 1/4th through this season, they are on pace to all 713 runs. That is a pretty healthy improvement!