I missed the recent community projection of Jay Bruce over at John Sickels’ site. Very interesting stuff, but John has a good question:

I might get flayed for this but I think all these are optimistic. My numbers were .261/.307/.419, with the league catching up with some of his weaknesses. Then he adjusts and breaks out huge in 2010.

What do you guys think? Am I right that people are expecting too much out of Bruce for 2009?

What do you think? I’d say that, if Reds fans are expecting too much of Bruce, it’s because we desperately need him to have a big year if the Reds are going to score any runs. With only three of the starting eight projected to be above-average hitters in 2009, a productive Bruce is simply a necessity.

12 Responses

  1. doug

    I think John is expecting to little of Jay. Basically, he expects Jay to have a higher average but less power and fewer walks. I just can’t buy into that. Jay has a whole lot of power and if he is going to hit .261 like John says, there is absolutely no way he only slugs .419. Over 577 PA thats 18 doubles, 3 triples and 20 HR given that average. I just don’t buy that.

  2. per14

    Those numbers are a lot worse than what he did last year. I think he’ll do better. I don’t know where the BA will be but I think a .325 OBP and a .475 SLG are reasonable hopes.

  3. Anthony

    I would’nt say we are expecting to much…..but I think we need to keep some things in perspective. We have to remember Jay’s age, and the situation he is coming in to this year. Last season when he came up is a world away from where the team is now. And now he is expected to be a major producer for this team. I’m just afraid that if this kid hits .200 in April everybody’s going to start piling on. That’s the last thing the Red’s need.

  4. Kurt Frost

    I just saw Bruce running into the dugout and he looks doughy. like he spent the winter drinking too much beer.

  5. GregD

    It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Folks expected way too much out of Homer Bailey too early, IMHO. This may or may not be Bruce’s breakthrough year. I hope the fan base is more patient with him.

    It will be interesting in general to see how/if fan reaction changes to the team in general this year if the Reds do what many here expect them to do—which is to struggle scoring runs.

    I agree that if the Reds are going anywhere this year, Bruce has to have that big year this year. But I don’t personally expect that this will be the year. Dunn, for example, didn’t start his 40+ HR streak until his 3rd full year in the majors.

  6. Sultan of Swaff

    With a full year of experience under his belt, there’s no way he doesn’t hit at least 27 and drive in 85. Yeah, it may not be enough to put this offense over the hump this season, but it is comforting to know you can count on that and more for a long time to come. And yes, strikeouts will be part of that equation.

  7. earl

    Jay Bruce is already a more patient hitter, but I keep thinking about Jeff Francoeur and hopefully Jay won’t go that way.

  8. GRF

    As fans, we may be expecting too much, but I think the projections we have seen from places like Marcel and PECOTA are reasonable. A ton of strikeouts, somewhere over 25 home runs and some trouble getting on base. I feel pretty comfortable given everything we have seen and heard from him that he will be a better play at the end of the year than he is at the beginning, and I do agree that 2010 could be a huge bustout year for him.

  9. RiverCity Redleg

    We always expect more. That’s what fans do. But, I agree with GregD, we need to not get too anxious if he starts slow or doesn’t quite hit like we “expect” this year. I don’t think this will be a problem. I think everyone knows Jay is a big part of our long term future.

  10. pinson343

    I like the community projections: 280/.339/.496. The Petcoa and Ron Shandler projections are similar. No way he only slugs .419 if he’s healthy. His average and OBP might be lower than projected but he’ll hit at least 28 HRs.

  11. Tom Diesman

    Bruce put up a .308 .366 .555 921 in the minors and he went .254 .314 .453 767 last season. I expect him to OPS between 800 to 850 this season and he should become a 850 to 900 OPS player as he completely develops.

  12. Shane

    You guys are starting to confuse think/expect with hope/wish